Will the VfL women defend their lead?
After the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals, the VfL Wolfsburg women can dream of the semifinals more than ever. Although the German runners-up actually went into their home game a week ago as clear underdogs, coach Stephan Lerch’s team pulled off a surprising 1-0 victory and therefore travels to France with a slight cushion.
However, as is well known, the bar is set very high at OL Lyon. The reigning champions have won nine of their last ten home games in the UWCL. Overall, they have suffered just a single defeat in 33 competitive matches over the past eleven months—last Wednesday’s 0-1 loss. Although the Wolfsburg women can make life difficult for the favorites, I am convinced that in Thursday evening’s return leg between Lyon and Wolfsburg, the tip in favor of the French side will come true.
This is supported not least by the fact that the Lower Saxony side conceded three goals at home against Union Berlin over the weekend and therefore had to settle for a 3-3 draw against a bottom-of-the-table team. Added to this is the absence of key player Alexandra Popp, who sustained a muscle injury in the first leg and will be unavailable for an indefinite period.
In many quarters, even before Lyon’s second match against the Wolfsburg women, predictions were already being made that the long-time face of the German national soccer team—who is set to join BVB this summer—will never play in the “Champions League” again. In fact, the odds are good that this will be the case, as even on the “Who advances?” market, the Lyon vs. Wolfsburg women’s odds leave no room for doubt as to who is more likely to reach the semifinals.
Lyon is having a formidable season both domestically and internationally. In league play, they’ve celebrated 17 wins in 19 matches. 68 goals scored in France’s top division equate to an average of nearly four goals per game. In the UWCL group stage, the women coached by Spaniard Jonatan Giraldez were the only team that could keep pace with the dominant Barcelona in terms of points. They secured 16 out of a possible 18 points, including a 3-1 home win against VfL Wolfsburg, which would also be enough in the quarterfinal second leg to advance to the semifinals.
I think it’s entirely possible that OL Lyon will flex their muscles at home as early as the first half and pin the VfL women back in their own half. Consequently, for the second leg between Lyon and the Wolfsburg women, I recommend betting on at least two goals in the first 45 minutes.
Lyon – Wolfsburg Women Head-to-Head Record
The two clubs know each other very well. In fact, no matchup in women’s UEFA competition has occurred more frequently than OL vs. VfL. This marks the 13th time the clubs have faced off. Just three of the previous twelve encounters went to the Wolfsburg women. “Les Lyonnaises,” meanwhile, have eight wins, while one match ended in a draw.
In the group stage, as mentioned, the French champions beat the German runners-up 3-1. The first leg of the quarterfinal a week ago went narrowly to the VfL women thanks to an early goal by Lineth Beerensteyn, though they were very lucky to secure that win and had to endure some tough stretches. I consider it very unlikely that this will go well a second time within eight days.
Lyon – Wolfsburg Women Prediction
In both the head-to-head match in the league phase and the first leg a week ago, OL was the better team, creating more chances and boasting a significantly higher xG value. That the match in Wolfsburg was nevertheless lost by a narrow 0-1 margin was therefore extremely unfortunate.
Not least for this reason, I expect the French champions, who have not lost a single competitive match this season, to strike back at home on Thursday evening. I wouldn’t even rule out a clear home victory in advance.
In my opinion, the Lyon vs. Wolfsburg women’s tip on Over 1.5 (1st half) at top odds of 1.94 is particularly interesting. I’m risking five units as a hypothetical stake, but I can equally imagine betting on an Asian handicap in favor of OL.
