Will Kwasniok’s Bundesliga debut go down the drain?

1. FC Köln has only won its opening game as a promoted team in the Bundesliga once so far. In the 2005/06 season, the Geißböcken managed a 1-0 victory against FSV Mainz 05 of all teams. Exactly 20 years later, fans from the cathedral city would certainly have no objection if a bet on their favorite club paid off again between Mainz and Cologne. However, the task facing the team from the Rhine-Hesse region is a difficult one, as Mainz are now unbeaten in 13 league games at home.

There is still hope for the Rhinelanders, though, as coach Bo Henriksen’s team only returned from Norway on Friday, where they lost the first leg of their Europa Conference League playoff against Rosenborg Trondheim 1-2 in the last minute.

When looking at the Mainz vs. Cologne prediction, it is therefore important to take into account that the team had less time to prepare for the game and recover, that the last-minute goal may have taken a toll on their morale, and that the second leg of the ECL playoff is already coming up next Thursday.

If the betting providers with Paysafecard are to be believed, then the answer is “no.” According to the Mainz vs. Cologne odds, the European Cup participant is considered the clear favorite in the three-way market. The top odds for a home win are only 1.91, which in turn means a probability of over 50%.

Mainz vs. Cologne prediction AI

For the match between Mainz and Cologne, the AI predicts a home win for Mainz. Why? Because the predicted probability of winning is 65.2%, which is significantly higher than that derived from the betting odds on offer. So there is value to be had! The xG values of 2.20 to 1.03 also tip the scales in favor of Rheinhessen. The AI also supports my prediction of at least two goals for the home team!

Mainz – Statistics & current form

With 52 points, FSV Mainz has had the third-best Bundesliga season in its history. Finishing sixth, the Nullfünfer have even secured the right to compete in international competition. However, the fruits of an entire season could be squandered in just 180 minutes, as coach Bo Henriksen’s team is under pressure in the second leg at home after Thursday evening’s bitter 1-2 defeat at Rosenborg Trondheim!

No other Bundesliga team has gone longer without defeat at home than Mainz

But first, the focus is on the opening game in the top flight of German soccer. The fact that Nadiem Amiri and Co. have not lost any of their last 13 Bundesliga home games (six wins, seven draws) and are therefore unbeaten in their own stadium since October 2024 speaks in favor of a Mainz vs. Cologne prediction for the hosts. Another positive factor is that they have now gone six consecutive matches against promoted teams without a single defeat, picking up 14 out of a possible 18 points.

Even the departure of Jonny Burkardt to Eintracht Frankfurt should not have a major negative impact on the outcome of the upcoming match or the FSV’s performance in general this season. On the one hand, because Benedict Hollerbach has been signed as a good replacement. On the other hand, because of the goal threat from midfield. National player Amiri is the first to mention. The creative player scored against Rosenborg and also got on the scoresheet in the narrow 1-0 win in the DFB Cup in Dresden. Another Amiri goal is tempting between Mainz and Cologne with odds of up to 4.10 in the Interwetten app.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

Lukas Kwasniok will make his Bundesliga debut as a coach on Sunday afternoon. The problem: of the last seven Effzeh coaches, only one, Steffen Baumgart, was able to win his debut match. However, the former Paderborn coach is not fazed by this, especially as his Cologne side are starting the new season full of confidence after a promising pre-season and buoyed by promotion euphoria.

What is the true face of 1. FC Köln?

The team almost suffered a bitter setback last week, but thanks to two last-minute goals from Johannesson and Martel, the Rhinelanders narrowly avoided elimination in the first round of the cup at SSV Jahn Regensburg (2-1). At the same time, the match in the Danube city underlined the fact that preparatory and competitive games are two different things. As a reminder, the Geißböcke won their dress rehearsal against Atalanta Bergamo 4-0! The truth about their performance probably lies somewhere in between and can only be finally assessed after a few weeks.

For the away game at the MEWA Arena, however, it can be assumed that the promoted team will take a proactive approach and not focus exclusively on defense. Kwasniok demands courage from his players and also exemplifies this with his approach. Defensively, however, problems are inevitable, as the back four have to defend quite high and leave a lot of space behind them. Although I believe the home side are capable of scoring, they are also likely to concede a few goals. That’s exactly why I’m leaning towards betting on at least two goals for the home team.

Mainz – Cologne Head-to-head record / H2H record

The clubs have met 38 times in competitive matches. With 13 wins each and twelve draws, the record is completely even. Interestingly, ten of these twelve draws came in a total of 26 encounters in Germany’s top flight. The last three direct duels alone have all ended without a winner. At home, FSV has a record of eight wins from 13 matches against 1. FC Köln. Only against Hoffenheim and Augsburg have the Nullfünfer achieved more home wins in the Bundesliga than against Effzeh.

Mainz – Cologne Tip

Did you know that Bo Henriksen has a better points average at FSV Mainz 05 than his prominent predecessors Thomas Tuchel and Jürgen Klopp? After an impressive last season, the Danish coach is now set to confirm or even repeat what he has achieved. Three points are firmly on the cards at home against 1. FC Köln, even though the Rhinelanders are starting the new Bundesliga season in good spirits thanks to good preparation and a promising transfer window. Nevertheless, I think Mainz are rightly favored.

However, given that the Rheinhessen played in Norway on Thursday evening and have to make up for their 1-2 defeat in the return leg next week, there is a certain residual risk in the encounter between the two clubs from the carnival strongholds.

I am taking this into account in my priority bet and am therefore venturing six units on the Mainz vs. Cologne tip that FSV will score at least twice. The top odds are 1.85 at Interwetten.