Will SGE take the final step in the Rhine-Main derby?

The first Rhine-Main derby of the first half of the season will still be fresh in the minds of many players. In the last game before the winter break, FSV won 3-1 at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, despite being a man down from the 21st minute after Nadiem Amiri was sent off. Two of the three goals were even scored with a man less on the pitch. SGE are now hoping for revenge in the return leg and also want to secure their ticket to the Champions League once and for all.

In terms of form, the Eagles currently have a clear advantage. Toppmöller’s side have won four of their last six Bundesliga matches. Last week’s 4-0 home win against RB Leipzig was a particular demonstration of their strength. The Nullfünfer, who have not won in six league games, therefore face a brutally difficult task, but one that they must overcome if they are to have any hope of qualifying for Europe. Nevertheless, predicting a home win between Mainz and Frankfurt remains a risky business.

At least the FSV’s historic home record against Hessen should give the Rheinhessen some encouragement. Of the 16 home games played against SGE in the Bundesliga so far, Mainz has lost only one. However, more than half of these matches ended in a draw, which Eintracht would certainly prefer to the hosts on Sunday evening at the end of the 32nd matchday.

Mainz vs. Frankfurt prediction AI

The artificial intelligence assessment is basically in line with the bookmakers’ betting odds distribution. Therefore, no AI-based value can be identified on the three-way market. However, it is striking that the betting basis computer called “BETSiE” predicts a high-scoring duel. The calculated xG values of 1.63 to 1.54 add up to a total value of 3.17, from which the Mainz vs. Frankfurt AI prediction of over 3 goals can be derived. Winamax is offering odds of 1.94, which – with an Asian handicap – even guarantees cashback if exactly three goals are scored during the game.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

After the 25th matchday at the beginning of March, FSV Mainz 05 was still in third place in the table and could dream more than ever of participating in the UEFA Champions League for the first time. Around six weeks and six matchdays later, this dream has burst like a soap bubble in the air. Because the Rheinhessen have failed to win any of their last six games and have collected only three points out of a possible 18 (0-3-3), they are currently in seventh place in the standings, which is almost certain not to be enough for international competition at the end of the season.

The hype surrounding FSV Mainz 05 has quickly faded

However, there is still hope, because even SC Freiburg, in fourth place, has only four points more than coach Bo Henriksen’s team, which at least has home advantage this weekend. The Red and Whites have not lost any of their last eleven Bundesliga home games (6-5-0). However, they only managed disappointing draws at home against VfL Wolfsburg (2-2) and Holstein Kiel (1-1) in their last two games.

Also interesting: in both matches, Mainz even fell behind 0-1. In general, FSV has always conceded the first goal in their last five league games. Those who believe this worrying streak will continue can find odds of 2.00 on Mainz taking the first step in the Rhine-Main derby against Frankfurt on Sunday evening.

In general, I would be very cautious about predicting a home win between Mainz and Frankfurt, primarily because the Red and Whites have certainly overperformed during their peak phase of the season. In my opinion, Jonny Burkardt, Paul Nebel, and Co. are somewhat overrated by the bookmakers. Despite continuing to put in decent performances, they have simply conceded too many goals in recent weeks. In five of their last six games, keeper Zentner has been beaten at least twice. The impressive intensity that the Nullfünfer bring to the pitch is therefore not currently enough to reward them with good results.

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

Eintracht Frankfurt sent out a clear message last weekend with a 4-0 home win against RB Leipzig. After this dominant performance and their 16th win of the season in 31 games, no one in the Main metropolis doubts that the Champions League anthem will be heard again on Tuesdays and Wednesdays at the Deutsche Bank Park next season. With a six-point lead over fifth-placed Leipzig and four points more than Freiburg in fourth, the starting position is comfortable. Should Freiburg lose to Leverkusen on Sunday, SGE would only need three points in Mainz to secure their ticket.

Will Frankfurt counter the Nullfünfer with ice-cold precision?

Hessen’s current form speaks for itself. They have won four of their last six Bundesliga games (one draw, one defeat). The defense has been particularly impressive during this period. Kevin Trapp and the injured Kaua Santos, who has been filling in admirably for the club icon, have not only kept three consecutive clean sheets, but have also conceded only three goals in the six games mentioned above.

Despite the fact that the 2022 Europa League champions have won only one of their six away games in the second half of the season and have recently failed to score in two consecutive away games, Sunday evening’s matchup could play into the hands of Toppmöller’s team. While the home side are desperate for a win due to their position in the table and will be looking to play courageously going forward, the Eagles will have plenty of space to switch play.

As there is currently hardly a better counter-attacking team in the German top flight than Eintracht, and the third-placed team will probably have four lightning-fast players on the pitch in Brown, Knauff, Bahoya, and Ekitiké, I am not averse to taking a closer look at the betting odds for a win for the visitors ahead of the clash between Mainz and Frankfurt. The maximum odds are an extremely attractive 2.95, which is offered in the Bet-at-Home app.

Mainz – Frankfurt Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

After 33 encounters in Germany’s top flight, the head-to-head record is completely even. Both clubs have ten wins to their name. However, the majority of the encounters ended without a winner (13). Nine of the 16 Bundesliga home games between Mainz and Eintracht Frankfurt ended in a draw.

Also interesting: Mainz last won a home match against Eintracht in the top flight in 2019. This was followed by three wins for Frankfurt and three draws in a row. The first leg shortly before Christmas ended 3-1 to the Rheinhessen, as mentioned in the introduction, but they have since fallen off the path to success and lost their momentum.

Mainz – Frankfurt Tip

Will FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt represent the Bundesliga internationally next season? There will be no definitive answer to this question on Sunday evening, but the Rhine-Main derby is nevertheless absolutely decisive for both sides. This is even more important for Mainz than for Eintracht Frankfurt, who would still have all the cards in their hands in the race for a Champions League spot even if they lost at the MEWA Arena. Mainz, on the other hand, need three points after six games without a win and are counting on their home strength. The

has won eleven Bundesliga home games in a row.

Despite their impressive home run and the fact that the Eagles have won only one of their 16 away games in the top flight in Rheinhessen, I definitely see value in the visitors this weekend. Four wins in their last six games, three clean sheets in a row and their outstanding counterattacking strength are compelling arguments. However, to reduce the risk somewhat and take into account the many goals conceded by FSV in recent weeks, my Mainz vs. Frankfurt prediction is that Eintracht will take a 1-0 lead.