Hjulmand’s encounter with his unloved ex
It has been more than ten years since Kasper Hjulmand was last a coach in the Bundesliga. At that time, the Dane was under contract with FSV Mainz 05, but had to vacate his post in mid-February 2015 after only 24 competitive games. The Rheinhessen team only managed to celebrate four wins in the Bundesliga under him.
The reunion on Saturday afternoon is therefore unlikely to be overly emotional. With his new employer Bayer Leverkusen, the former Danish national coach wants to take all three points from the carnival stronghold and thus confirm the positive trend of recent weeks. In view of the differing form curves, betting on Leverkusen seems to be a reasonable option in any case.
The reigning runners-up have picked up ten points in their last four Bundesliga games. The Rhinelanders have not lost any of their six competitive games under Kasper Hjulmand. As fifth in the table, the Arzneistädter are therefore favorites going into the away game at the MEWA Arena.
This is especially true given that Mainz are currently only in 16th place and have only managed to celebrate a single three points in the league. Looking at the Mainz vs. Leverkusen prediction, the fact that FSV have lost five of their last seven Bundesliga home games against their upcoming opponents makes things even more difficult.
The aspects already mentioned are all indications that explain why the odds on the away team are slightly lower ahead of the Mainz vs. Leverkusen match. However, if the season so far in the German top flight has shown one thing, it is probably that many matches are very close and exciting. Apart from that, there have been eleven (!) away wins to celebrate in the last three matchdays.
Mainz vs. Leverkusen Prediction AI
Artificial intelligence and German betting providers are pretty much in agreement when it comes to assessing this matchup. However, while bookmakers – based on the Mainz Leverkusen odds – are only giving Leverkusen a 40.8% chance of winning, “BETSiE” is countering with 45.9%. This results in value in the Mainz vs. Leverkusen AI prediction for the away win, as, as already mentioned, the top odds are an impressive 2.45.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
Last season, Mainz 05 was one of the surprise teams in the Bundesliga. Seventh place in the final standings even earned the Rheinhessen club a return to international competition. Although the double burden of national and international commitments is often cited as the main reason for challenging Bundesliga seasons, there are currently other reasons why FSV are lagging behind their own expectations and, as third from bottom in the table, have only managed to pick up four points in six games so far.
Mainz still without points or goals at home
Offensively, the Nullfünfer have not yet been able to fully compensate for the departure of Jonathan Burkardt. Too much depends on Paul Nebel and Nadiem Amiri, who see their core competencies more in setting up goals for their teammates. As a result, coach Bo Henriksen’s team has scored only five goals, making it one of the weakest attacks in the league.
In their last two games, Mainz failed to score a single goal. They suffered two well-deserved defeats, losing 4-0 to HSV and 2-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund. For the first time since January this year, Mainz have suffered two consecutive defeats in the top flight of German soccer. However, coach Henriksen has never lost three Bundesliga games in a row.
Far more worrying than the annoying view of the table are the disappointing performances in front of their home crowd. Mainz have lost all three home games so far and have not scored a single goal. Across the season, they have now gone eight (!) Bundesliga home games in a row without a win, which supports my prediction ahead of Mainz’s clash with Leverkusen that the Red and Whites, who face Bosnian side Zrinjski Mostar in the Conference League on Thursday evening, will suffer another setback in the form of a defeat on Saturday afternoon.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer Leverkusen continues to chase records! Although the current Werkself is no longer comparable to the 2023/24 double winners, Malik Tillman, Christian Kofane, Lucas Vazquez and Co. can still achieve a brilliant record. Bayer 04 Leverkusen has not lost 36 (!) consecutive league games away from home. In the top five European leagues, this record has only been surpassed by Paris St. Germain (39 matches/2023-2025) and AC Milan (38 matches/1991-1993). From a statistical point of view, the betting odds for a home win between Mainz and Leverkusen are therefore negligible.
Leverkusen’s secret to success is based on structure and efficiency
This impression is reinforced when you look at Leverkusen’s good form. Since Kasper Hjulmand took charge at Bayer, the Rhinelanders have remained unbeaten in six competitive games in the Bundesliga and the UEFA Champions League (3-3-0). However, only a few of these performances could be described as “brilliant.” Defensively, the reigning runners-up have improved considerably compared to the start of the season, while offensively they are benefiting from a certain individual quality and decent effectiveness.
Twelve goals scored after six matchdays still represent the third-best tally in the league. Ten points from the last four Bundesliga games and the aforementioned strength away from home, which contrasts with an unexpected weakness at home, are additional arguments that, in my opinion, tip the scales in favor of Werkself. Meanwhile, youngster Christian Kofane is a likely candidate to score. The 19-year-old has recently scored in the Champions League and in the league. The Interwetten app offers maximum odds of 3.05 for another goal.
Mainz – Leverkusen Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
39 encounters, 38 of them in the top German league, are currently listed in the H2H statistics. With 21 wins, Bayer Leverkusen clearly leads the head-to-head comparison. Last season, FSV fought to a 2-2 draw at home, while Bayer won their home game 1-0. In their last seven Bundesliga home games, Mainz have only managed one win (1-1-5). In their last three home games, the Rheinhessen have only managed to pick up a measly point against the Rhinelanders. However, Mainz have never gone four Bundesliga home games in a row without a win against Leverkusen.
Mainz – Leverkusen Tip
Last season, Mainz 05 would not necessarily have started as underdogs in a home game against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. On their way to the Europa Conference League, Mainz benefited from strong performances in front of their own fans, among other things. However, that has changed fundamentally in the early stages of the 2025/26 season. In their three Bundesliga home games so far, Henriksen’s team has failed to score a single point or goal. The bitter reality for the home side is that they are currently in 16th place, with only five goals from six games, making them far too harmless in attack.
The visitors, on the other hand, have found their feet after initial difficulties. Hjulmand has turned things around and delivered good results (3-3-0). Although there is no sign of the footballing brilliance and dominance seen in the Alonso era, the Werkself are undoubtedly among the top five in terms of quality. For me, there are therefore enough reasons to tip the visitors to take all three points in the match between Mainz and Leverkusen.
