Who will pick up the big points just before Christmas?

It would certainly be too early to say that FSV Mainz 05 has turned things around. However, the Nullfünfer have undoubtedly taken their first small steps out of the crisis under Urs Fischer. The lucky 2-2 draw at FC Bayern last week already gave them a lot of confidence.

During the week, the Rheinhessen beat Samsunspor at home in the Conference League, securing a direct ticket to the round of 16 in this competition. They now need to build on this and make the prediction of three points come true in Sunday’s match between Mainz and St. Pauli.

The importance of a home win against their direct relegation rivals from Hamburg is underlined by the league table. FSV remain in last place. They are four points behind their upcoming opponents, who occupy 16th place in the relegation zone. In the worst-case scenario, i.e., if the prediction of an away win between Mainz and St. Pauli comes true, last year’s sixth-placed team from the carnival stronghold would go into the winter break seven points behind the safety zone.

To prevent this, the winless streak at home in the Bundesliga, which has been going on since February, must come to an end. The Rheinhessen have gone twelve consecutive games without a win at home in the past ten months. However, the Red and Whites celebrated their last home win in the German top flight against FC St. Pauli of all teams…

The two encouraging results under Urs Fischer have already ensured that Mainz are the favorites against St. Pauli according to the odds.

Mainz vs. St. Pauli AI prediction

Among all AI tips for the Bundesliga on matchday 15, the AI predicts the fewest goals in the basement battle between Mainz and St. Pauli. This is confirmed by the xG values of both teams (1.48 vs. 0.89), which add up to well below the 2.5 goal mark. At the same time, artificial intelligence predicts Mainz as the winner with a probability of 52%, which roughly corresponds to the betting odds offered on the 1X2 market. Ultimately, the Mainz vs. St. Pauli AI prediction is therefore leaning towards under 2.5 goals.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

With seven points after 14 matchdays, FSV Mainz 05 is having its second-worst Bundesliga season in the club’s history. Worrying: only three clubs in the three-point era have had so few points at this stage of the season and managed to avoid relegation in the end.

The Rheinhessen club still has a long way to go, even though Urs Fischer seems to have turned things around in the last week. A point gained at the Allianz Arena against FC Bayern and four points from two ECL games, which saw them advance to the round of 16, have significantly boosted the confidence of the Red and Whites.

Will Mainz score at least twice for the third time in a row?

In my opinion, it is therefore not particularly advisable to use the season statistics so far as a basis for a possible Mainz vs. St. Pauli prediction. Last season’s sixth-placed team has recently looked liberated, played more actively up front, impressed with its old virtues, and scored twice in Munich and at home against Samsunspor.

I also see value in the odds for a home win, even though, as already mentioned, FSV have been waiting for a win for twelve Bundesliga home games across two seasons. The comebacks of Paul Nebel and Dominik Kohr, who will return to the starting lineup after long suspensions, will certainly have a positive impact on this important endeavor.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

For a long time, FC St. Pauli was looking for a real goal scorer. Recently, there have been increasing signs that Martijn Kaars can fill this role.
The summer signing from Magdeburg scored in the DFB Cup away win in Gladbach and found the net twice in last week’s hugely important 2-1 home win (against the odds) against Heidenheim. Four points in the last three competitive games underline his value to the team.

Was the 2-1 win against Heidenheim Pauli’s breakthrough?

Kaars is also a logical choice as a potential goalscorer in the away game in Mainz. At Winamax, you can get odds of up to 5.00 for a Kaars goal between Mainz and St. Pauli.

In general, it makes sense to bet on the Kiezkickers scoring at the MEWA Arena. Mainz has failed to keep a clean sheet in 25 consecutive Bundesliga games. St. Pauli has also failed to score in only two of its last eight competitive games. In any case, the problem for the visitors from the Hanseatic city is not necessarily creating scoring chances, but primarily converting them. This is one of the reasons why coach Alexander Blessin’s team has only picked up one point out of a possible 18 in its last six away games in Germany’s top flight. Another away defeat looms on Sunday evening!

Mainz – St. Pauli Head-to-head record

The clubs have only faced each other four times in the Bundesliga. FSV Mainz 05 won all four matches. The Rheinhessen club has not played more games without losing a point against any other club in the top flight. Last season, Mainz did not concede a single goal in either the home or away game.

At least that should change on Sunday afternoon, because although Hamburg have one of the least dangerous attacks with only 13 goals in total, they have scored at least one goal in more than half of all their games this season.

Mainz – St. Pauli Tip

FSV Mainz 05 fans will fondly remember their last home game against FC St. Pauli in the Bundesliga. In February of this year, the Red and Whites won 2-0, cementing their place in the top third of the table. To date, it has been the FSV’s last home win and also their last clean sheet in the top flight.

Around ten months later, the situation is fundamentally different. Mainz are bottom of the table and fighting to stay in touch with the safety zone. The recent impressions in the first few games under Urs Fischer give cause for hope!

On the one hand, I can well imagine that Mainz will remain unbeaten in their fourth competitive game under the Swiss coach. I even think a home win is very realistic, especially as the Kiezkickers are not setting the world alight away from home and have only picked up one point from their last six away games.

However, because there is still a certain residual risk, my favorite Mainz vs. St. Pauli tip is ultimately for both teams to score. Statistically, there are few arguments in favor of this, but the significance of the match and the slight upward trend in form lead me to place a corresponding bet.