Will Haaland score against his former club?
Between winter 2020 and summer 2022, Erling Haaland played in 89 competitive matches for Borussia Dortmund. With 86 goals and 23 assists, the Norwegian made a lasting impression and still only brought BVB a relatively small transfer fee of around $60 million due to an exit clause in his contract.
On Wednesday evening, Erling Haaland will be reunited with his old club. In the match between Manchester City and Dortmund, it’s obvious to bet on the in-form striker to score.
In terms of odds, it’s likely to be more exciting and, above all, more lucrative to predict a win for the visitors ahead of the Manchester City vs. Dortmund match. Coach Niko Kovac’s team is considered a clear underdog. Rightly so, considering that the hosts have not lost any of their last 22 home games in the Champions League or group stage (19-3-0) and that City coach Pep Guardiola has not lost any of his last ten personal encounters with BVB (6-4-0).
Nevertheless, it must be taken into account that the Bundesliga club is currently impressing with consistency and stability. Apart from that, a glance at the table shows that this is a contest between two evenly matched teams. Both teams have seven points to their name and could take an important step towards the top eight with a win. However, opinions are divided on this as well.
Not only are the odds for a home win significantly lower for Manchester City than for Dortmund, but the betting odds for a finish among the top eight clubs in the league phase are also far apart. Bet-at-home offers odds of 1.20 for the Citizens to advance directly to the round of 16 and a whopping 2.90 for BVB.
Manchester City vs. Dortmund Prediction AI
The AI has calculated a 68% probability of victory for the top English club. The xG values are 2.30 to 1.00. Depending on your risk appetite, you could therefore consider handicaps. However, while the Asian handicap (-1) would only result in 1.60, Bet365 is already offering a solid 1.81 for a home win (-1.25 AHC), making this the most exciting Manchester City vs. Dortmund AI prediction!
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
In the English Premier League, Manchester City is currently the closest challenger to leaders Arsenal. After ten matchdays, however, the Sky Blues are already six points behind the Londoners. Overall, 19 out of a possible 30 points symbolize that coach Pep Guardiola’s team has once again made a few slip-ups. In addition to six wins, there have also been three defeats and one draw.
Less spectacle & more results-oriented soccer is the new City approach!
On the international stage, the star-studded ensemble has not had a flawless run either. Against Napoli (2-0) and Villarreal (2-0), they celebrated deserved victories, including clean sheets, but in Monaco, they only managed a 2-2 draw. Anyone who believes in a third win for the Cityzens and wants to combine this with a maximum of four goals in the game will receive odds of 2.06 at Merkur Bets ahead of the Manchester City vs. Dortmund game.
This approach is supported by the aforementioned statistic of 22 unbeaten CL home games in the league or group stage, as well as the defense, which has performed well so far, conceding only eight goals in ten league games and keeping six clean sheets across all competitions. Also interesting: in 14 of Pep’s 15 competitive games, a bet on under 4.5 would have been successful, with eight games seeing a maximum of two goals. Despite Haaland’s monster tally of 26 goals in his last 16 competitive games since mid-August, I don’t believe we’ll see an offensive spectacle on Wednesday evening!
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
From a low xG value of 4.5 goals, which reflects the number of scoring opportunities and their quality, BVB scored an incredible twelve (!) goals. In all three games against Juventus (4-4), Bilbao (4-1), and Copenhagen (4-2), Guirassy, Adeyemi, and Co. scored exactly four times. Dortmund could now become the first club in Champions League history to score four or more goals in four consecutive games.
Will BVB flourish again after a 45-minute warm-up period?
However, the twelve goals scored, which is currently the second-best tally in the UEFA Champions League, should not be overrated, as Manchester City will be the first real test on Wednesday evening. Anyone who saw the Black and Yellows’ offensive efforts in their recent Bundesliga away game in Augsburg (1-0) or in 120 minutes of cup action in Frankfurt (1-1) may not necessarily have been left with the impression that the Borussia attack is brimming with confidence or playing courageously up front regardless of the consequences.
Instead, it is more likely that coach Niko Kovac’s serious approach has become firmly anchored in the players’ minds. Defense first is the coach’s credo, and on Wednesday evening he will again be keen to ensure that his boys don’t fall behind early on. The aim is to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible.
In any case, BVB have conceded five of their six Champions League goals after the break so far. Twelve of the 14 goals they have scored have also come after the 46th minute. Because 15 of the 18 goals in games involving the Champions League finalists were scored in the second half, I am also focusing on the Manchester City vs. Dortmund betting odds that more will happen in the second half or that the ball will cross the goal line at most once before the break.
Manchester City – Dortmund Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
There have been six encounters between these clubs so far. Borussia Dortmund has only won once. In contrast, City has won three times and there have been two draws. The last two direct duels took place in the fall of 2022. The Bundesliga club lost 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium. At home, they managed a 0-0 draw. Incidentally, a bet on under 3.5 goals would have paid off in all six competitive games. Also interesting: BVB took the lead in four of the six matches mentioned, including two of three Champions League away games on the island.
Manchester City – Dortmund Tip
With seven points each, Borussia Dortmund (6th) and Manchester City (7th) are currently neighbors in the CL league phase interim rankings. The direct duel is therefore of considerable importance. On paper, however, there is a lot to be said for the home side, who have an impressive CL home record, have won five of their last six competitive games and have defined themselves this season primarily through a stable defense and results-oriented football. The same applies to the visitors from the Ruhr, who shine through efficiency rather than necessarily a multitude of good scoring chances.
Given that the statistics also point to a much higher-scoring second half and that both teams have great respect for each other, my favorite Manchester City vs. Dortmund tip is for no more than one goal before the break.
