Will Haaland and Co. also fall victim to the Werkself?

Three weeks after Manchester City put BVB in their place with a 4-1 home win, the next Bundesliga team will be visiting the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday evening. This time, Bayer 04 Leverkusen will have the chance to try and improve on the disastrous away record of German clubs. In the UEFA Champions League, the Sky Blues have won all of their last 13 (!) home games against representatives from Germany’s top flight, scoring an average of almost four goals per game. It seems unlikely that this impressive run will come to an end during the week in the fifth matchday of the Champions League. Instead, there are many reasons to bet on Guardiola’s team in the match between Manchester City and Leverkusen.

Speaking of Pep Guardiola: The Catalan-born coach will be on the sidelines for the 100th time as Manchester City’s coach in the Champions League on Tuesday. His record of 62 wins, 19 draws, and only 18 defeats is absolutely impressive. Only the living legends Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger have been responsible for more games as coaches in Europe’s most important club competition.

This season, perfectionist Pep is aiming for his fourth Champions League triumph. To increase the likelihood of making it directly into the round of 16 as a top-eight team, a prediction in favor of the English side should come true in the Manchester City vs. Leverkusen match.

The visitors from the Rhineland will want to fight back with all their might, even though Kasper Hjulmand’s Werkself have yet to prove that they can cause problems for the top teams. They were thrashed 7-2 by Paris St. Germain in the Champions League and lost 3-0 to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga.

In light of this, it comes as no surprise that the odds are heavily in favor of Erling Haaland and Co. ahead of the Manchester City vs. Leverkusen match. Bet-at-home is offering odds of just 1.23 for a home win.

Manchester City vs. Leverkusen AI prediction

Artificial intelligence also has no major doubts that the experienced Sky Blues will win their home game against the 2024 double winners as expected. This implies an estimated probability of victory of 72.8%. Only the extent of the success, i.e., the margin of victory, is open to debate. Looking at the xG values of 2.48 and 0.81, this results in a difference of 1.67 xG goals. Depending on your risk appetite, you could either bet on the Asian handicap (+1.75) in favor of Werkself or – at the expense of the odds – follow the Manchester City vs. Leverkusen AI prediction on Bayer AHC (+2).

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

Manchester City has had a fantastic Champions League season so far. Although the potential title contender dropped two points in the 2-2 draw in Monaco, a glance at various other statistics is enough to draw an extremely positive interim conclusion. For example, the Citizens were never behind at any point in the first four matchdays. In addition, none of the 36 participating teams has made more passes, achieved a higher pass completion rate, or enjoyed longer periods of possession. Fourth place with ten points and a goal difference of 10:3 is the logical consequence and, at the same time, a good starting position in the race for the top eight.

Man City rarely slips up at home

Looking ahead to Tuesday evening’s Manchester City vs. Leverkusen prediction, it should also be noted that Guardiola’s team will be playing in front of their home crowd. Across all competitions, City has only failed to win in six of its 18 competitive games so far this season. Five of these six matches in which they dropped points took place away from home. At home, however, the Sky Blues have won everything there is to win in the past three months. Their last seven home wins have all come with a margin of at least two goals. Dortmund (4-1) and Liverpool (3-0) were recently defeated by even more convincing margins.

I am therefore primarily checking the odds for a handicap home win (-1.5) for the favorites between Manchester City and Leverkusen. In the Bet-at-home betting app, these are at 1.60 at the top. Alternatively, a bet on Erling Haaland as a goalscorer is of course very interesting. The Norwegian is about to play his 50th Champions League match, has already scored 50 times in the competition and remains in top form. The 1-2 defeat at Newcastle United at the weekend was only the third competitive game in 2025/26 that ended without a goal for the former Dortmund player.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

As things stand, Bayer Leverkusen would qualify for the UEFA Champions League playoffs. However, in 21st place in the standings, their qualification hangs by a thread. They are only two points ahead of 25th place. But with Newcastle, Olympiacos, and Villarreal waiting, three thoroughly beatable opponents, anything is still possible. Given the remaining fixtures, the away game at the Etihad Stadium can even be considered a “bonus game.” Even a single point would be a huge achievement for Kasper Hjulmand and his team.

Leverkusen wants to get off to another good start

At least the Rhinelanders should not be lacking in confidence. In their ninth Bundesliga game under their new Danish coach, Leverkusen celebrated their seventh win (one draw, one defeat) at the weekend, moving up to third place in the table. The 3-1 win in Wolfsburg was down to a very good first half. After half an hour, B04 led 3-0.

This was no coincidence, as 19 (!) of the 27 goals scored in the German top flight so far have come in the first 45 minutes of a game. I therefore have no qualms about focusing on the betting odds for a high-scoring first half between Manchester City and Leverkusen. Betano is offering maximum odds of 2.02 for over 1.5 (1st half).

Manchester City – Leverkusen Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The clubs have never faced each other in a direct duel before. For Manchester City, Bayer 04 Leverkusen is the eighth different opponent from the Bundesliga. So far, the Sky Blues have a record of 24 wins, six draws, and eight losses against German teams. However, City has lost only one of the last 24 such encounters in the Champions League (19-4-1). At home, the English side has won 13 consecutive Champions League games against teams from Germany. Three weeks ago, BVB felt the full force of Guardiola’s team in a 4-1 defeat at the Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City – Leverkusen Tip

Bayer 04 Leverkusen faces a mammoth task on Tuesday evening. The Werkself are the clear underdogs at Manchester City’s Etihad Stadium. Anything other than a comfortable home win for the Citizens would be very surprising. Especially given that the Rhinelanders have consistently delivered good results under Hjulmand so far, but have lost against stronger opponents. The 2-7 home defeat to Paris St. Germain and the 0-3 defeat in Munich are impressive proof of this. I therefore do not believe in an away win and am instead clearly in favor of a home win for Guardiola’s protégés.

Because the Sky Blues have won their last seven home games by at least two goals and will certainly want to respond after their 2-1 defeat at Newcastle at the weekend, my Manchester City vs. Leverkusen tip is once again for a handicap win for the home side. Bet-at-home is offering odds of 1.60 for (-1.5), which I am confidently betting on with six units.