Will the Sky Blues hold on to their first-leg victory?
After a successful 2-0 win in the first leg, Pep Guardiola’s team now has the chance to appear in the EFL Cup final for the first time since the 2020/21 season. Back then, they won 1-0 against Tottenham Hotspur. For last year’s winners from Newcastle, however, it will be a real mammoth task to make up this deficit at the Etihad.
In direct cup matches, the two teams are evenly matched: in four encounters so far, both teams have emerged victorious twice – Newcastle even won the only match in Manchester 2-0, which would at least take them into extra time.
In general, there is one notable feature of the four direct cup matches so far – none of the games have seen more than two goals scored, and only one of the two teams has been successful in scoring in each game.
One of the Citizens’ greatest qualities this season is their strong home form: In 18 competitive games in front of their home crowd this season, the Sky Blues have won 14 times, with two draws and two defeats completing the picture. They are currently unbeaten in nine games at the Etihad, winning seven of them. Our Manchester City vs. Newcastle prediction is therefore for another victory for Guardiola’s team.
While Manchester City drew 2-2 with arch-rivals Tottenham at the weekend, Newcastle United suffered a 4-1 defeat at Liverpool. This means that the Magpies continue to struggle away from home, with only three wins in 16 competitive games so far and currently without a win in three games.
However, they do have a tendency to score when they are successful away from home. Since October, they have only failed to score in three of their 13 away games, and in the remaining ten games, they have scored eight times in the first half. So, if they score again, we recommend betting on the visitors scoring again in the first half of the Manchester City vs. Newcastle game.
Manchester City – Newcastle Head-to-head record / H2H record
Manchester City and Newcastle United have played each other 164 times in competitive matches. Manchester City have won 70 of those games, while Newcastle United have won 57. 37 games ended in a draw. Manchester City also has a slight advantage in terms of goal difference: the Skyblues have scored a total of 256 goals, while Newcastle has scored 210.
Manchester City – Newcastle Tip
In the second leg of the EFL Cup, Manchester City and Newcastle United will meet again at the Etihad, with the Citizens entering the second leg with a 2-0 lead after a successful first leg. It is not unlikely that coach Pep Guardiola will once again rotate his squad, but the Manchester City vs. Newcastle betting odds are clearly in favor of the Sky Blues.
This is well justified, as Manchester City’s home strength meets Newcastle’s away weakness. While Man City lost only two of 18 home games, the Magpies won only three of 16 away games. With 49 goals in those 18 home games, the Citizens have one of the best home attacks in Europe and have only failed to score in one game since September 2025. Newcastle, on the other hand, have not been completely harmless away from home, scoring in 10 of their last 13 competitive games on the road.
