How low will the Red Devils sink?
After finishing in a dismal 15th place in the 2024/25 season and losing the Europa League final, England’s record champions invested heavily this summer to ensure that such a debacle would not be repeated. However, anyone who thought the worst was over will be proven wrong today. After a poor start with only one point out of a possible six in the Premier League, United failed in the EFL Cup on Wednesday evening, notably against a fourth-division team called Grimsby. If Manchester United’s bid for their first competitive win of the 2025/26 season against Burnley is unsuccessful, they will have reached another low point two weeks before the important city derby against Manchester City.
The statistics certainly speak in favor of the fallen record champions, who have lost only one of their last 25 home games against the Clarets (15 wins, nine draws) and are unbeaten in 23 Premier League games against promoted teams (20 wins, three draws). And yet, in the first two matchdays against Arsenal (1-1) and Fulham (0-1), so many things went wrong again, which is why we would definitely not rule out the Clarets gaining a point at Old Trafford. We therefore recommend betting on a +2 handicap for the visitors, which also covers a United win by just one goal.
The venerable Old Trafford is no longer the intimidating Theatre of Dreams it once was. Rúben Amorim’s team has lost eight of its last 13 home games in the Premier League (three wins, two draws). Burnley FC, who ended a four-game losing streak in the Premier League with a 2-0 win over Sunderland, also gained additional confidence in the EFL Cup during the week, beating Derby County 2-1 at home.
The Clarets will need to be as solid as possible in defense. The Red Devils’ expected goals value was only 3.2, which shows that the struggling record champions have also lacked the necessary luck. It is also very interesting to note that Amorim’s team will again score a maximum of one goal, for which Manchester United vs. Burnley odds of 2.57 are listed in the Betano app.
Manchester United – Burnley Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 67 – 25 – 45
A total of 137 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with Manchester United winning almost half of them (67). The Red Devils have lost only one of their last 25 home games against Burnley FC in all competitions (15 wins, nine draws), but they do not have an overly good home record in the Premier League. Of all the teams that have played at least eight times at the Theatre of Dreams, the Clarets are one of only three teams (along with Chelsea and Manchester City) that have avoided defeat in more than half of their away games against the English record champions (in five out of nine cases; one win, four draws).
Manchester United – Burnley Tip
Basically, in the match between Manchester United and Burnley, the prediction in the duel between the record champions and the promoted team must lean towards the home side. However, the Red Devils have not won any of their first three competitive games of the 2025/26 season and continue to be in a worrying state. Their elimination from the EFL Cup against fourth-tier Grimsby marked another low point. In such a mentally fragile state, it will certainly not be a walk in the park to beat a promoted team that has gained fresh confidence with two competitive wins in a row.
Against this backdrop, we have decided to apply a +2 handicap to the visitors. This covers any surprise points won by the Clarets at Old Trafford, as well as any United home win by just one goal. Bwin is offering odds of 1.73 for Manchester United vs. Burnley, which we are betting on with five out of ten units.
