Will OM get revenge for the 2024 EL semi-final?
After picking up just one point from their matches against Lens (1-2) and Angers (2-2) and relinquishing their lead at the top of the table to PSG, Olympique Marseille ended their brief slump with a 1-0 win at Auxerre on Saturday. Now they are looking to build on their 4-0 home win over Ajax Amsterdam in the Champions League when a team that prevented Les Phocéens from reaching the Europa League final in 2024 comes to the French port city. Against this backdrop, betting on a home win for the Olympiens against Atalanta Bergamo carries certain risks.
However, the Italians are not in particularly good form. Although “La Dea” has lost only two of its last eleven games in the Champions League preliminary rounds (group and league stages) (five wins, four draws), the Nerazzurri have been waiting for another win in six competitive games across all competitions (five draws, one defeat), which is why betting on Marseille to win at home against Atalanta Bergamo carries certain risks. Overall, however, the Nerazzurri have been waiting for another win in six competitive games across all competitions (five draws, one defeat), which is why betting on the Lombards to win points in Marseille vs. Atalanta Bergamo seems similarly risky. We are therefore steering clear of the three-way system and betting that both teams will score in this match.
It could well be a high-scoring affair at the Stade Vélodrome. After all, Atalanta Bergamo is one of only three teams to have taken at least 45 shots in this Champions League season and conceded at least 45 shots (specifically: 49:45). Accordingly, the tip for over 2.5 goals is a logical one, with odds of 1.63 available at Bet-at-home for Marseille vs. Atalanta Bergamo.
Marseille vs. Atalanta Bergamo Prediction AI
At Bwin, where a Bwin voucher is currently available, the odds for tip 2 are 3.40, which implies a probability of 29.4 percent. AI rates the Nerazzurri’s chances of winning at 32 percent and exceeds this value, which generates a positive expected value.
Marseille – Statistics & current form
At the national level, Olympique Marseille got off to a flying start and even surprisingly led the Ligue 1 table after eight matchdays, before the aforementioned slump set in, which has now been temporarily halted with a 1-0 win over Auxerre. Now the next success is to come in the Champions League.
However, the starting position is ambiguous: in the 2023/24 Europa League semi-finals, OM drew 1-1 at home, but then lost 3-0 in Italy to go out 4-1 on aggregate. At the same time, the stadium is a factor: Les Phocéens are unbeaten in their last nine European home games (seven wins, two draws) – the only longer home streak was between 1989 and 1999 (23).
Will the Paixao and Aubameyang axis strike again?
The fact that the tip for a home win for Roberto De Zerbi’s team, who has lost seven of nine games against the Nerazzurri in his coaching career (one win, one draw), is coming up in Marseille against Atalanta Bergamo the fact that OM have only been behind for nine percent of playing time (28 minutes) in this Champions League season – the lowest percentage among all teams that have lost at least twice.
Up front, Igor Paixao leads the way with three goals in the Champions League. The last player to score more for OM in a season was André Ayew in 2011/12 (four). Among non-French OM players, only Didier Drogba (five, 2003/04) and Alen Boksic (four, 1992/93) have surpassed this tally. Together with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Paixao has already scored three Champions League goals. This is the most productive team combination in 2025/26, which is now set to bring about revenge against the Bergamaschi.
Atalanta Bergamo – Statistics & current form
Under Ivan Juric, Atalanta Bergamo has lost only one of its first ten league games in Serie A. Nevertheless, the Nerazzurri are currently only tenth because seven of those ten games ended in draws. After five consecutive draws in competitive games, to make matters worse, they suffered a 0-1 defeat at Udinese in their dress rehearsal on Saturday. Understandably, the odds are now stacked against “La Dea” in Marseille’s match against Atalanta Bergamo.
In general, the Orobici have yet to win a competitive game against French teams outside Italy (two draws, two defeats). Nevertheless, they have shown a certain robustness in the Champions League since last season. They have only suffered two defeats in eleven games in the preliminary rounds (group and league stages) (five wins, four draws) and kept six clean sheets. Only Inter Milan (ten) and Arsenal (eight) have managed more in the first round format.
Atalanta Bergamo creates many chances, but also concedes a lot
Atalanta “La Dea” is one of the few teams in this Champions League season to have both taken at least 45 shots (49) and conceded at least 45 (45). The 0-0 draw against Slavia Prague on matchday three was the biggest flurry of chances since records began, with 38 shots (22-16), but still ended goalless (0-0).
Charles De Ketelaere stands out in terms of creativity: he has created six chances in a Champions League game for the Bergamo side for the second time (previously against Club Brugge) – the only player in the club to have achieved this double.
Marseille – Atalanta Bergamo Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0 – 1 – 1
The two teams have only crossed paths once before, in the semifinals of the 2023/24 Europa League. After the first leg in Marseille ended in a 1–1 draw, Atalanta Bergamo recorded a 3–0 home win in the second leg in Lombardy, subsequently advancing to the final and inflicting Bayer Leverkusen’s only competitive defeat of the entire 2023/24 season.
Marseille – Atalanta Bergamo Tip
Also, because the Phocéens are unbeaten in nine European home games (seven wins, two draws), the betting odds from the top bookmakers are leaning towards the home side in Marseille against Atalanta Bergamo, who are now hosting a guest that is anything but a walk-in customer. “La Dea” has lost only two of its last eleven games in the group and league stages of the Champions League (five wins, four draws) and kept a clean sheet in six of those eleven games.
Recently, however, both teams have lacked defensive stability, which is why we expect to see a lot of goals at the Stade Vélodrome. Consequently, our prediction for Marseille vs. Atalanta Bergamo is that there will be goals at both ends. Merkur Bets is offering odds of 1.54 for both teams to score, which we are betting on with seven out of ten units.
