Will the Austrian champions start with a defeat?
There are no Austrian representatives in this season’s UEFA Champions League. However, one level below, two clubs from the land of mountains, Sturm Graz and RB Salzburg, are competing in the Europa League. The reigning national champions from Styria will face the Danish runners-up in their opening match.
A look at the betting odds reveals that, ahead of the kickoff of the Midtjylland vs. Sturm Graz match, a home win is considered far more realistic. The Graz team is therefore traveling to Herning as the underdog. Ahead of the Scottish doubleheader against Rangers and Celtic, it would definitely be a success for coach Jürgen Säumel’s team if they could manage a draw in central Jutland.
The Red and Blacks are particularly difficult opponents on home turf. Last season, the four-time Danish champions lost only two of a total of eight European Cup matches at their own stadium (3-3-2). They also remained unbeaten at home (2-1-0) in the recently concluded EL qualification 25/26, laying the foundation at the MCH Arena for the sixth consecutive year in which Midtjylland will compete in the main field of a European Cup with the best clubs on the continent.
The Jutlanders are currently in second place with 18 points from nine games. No other team has scored more goals (23) in the Danish top flight so far. 18 of those were scored in the five home games. At the same time, however, they have also conceded ten goals at home, which means that on average almost six (!) goals are scored per FCM home game.
Similar to FC Midtjylland (2-0 at home against Viborg), Sturm Graz also won their dress rehearsal before the start of the Europa League. Thanks to an early red card, the Styrians deservedly won 2-0 at RB Salzburg and moved up to second place in the Bundesliga table. In their fourth away game in the league, they celebrated their fourth three points with a total score of 10-1.
However, their only international away game so far this season ended in a 5-0 defeat at Bodö/Glimt, which was also the “neckbreaker” in the Champions League playoffs. Including the results from the 2024/25 Champions League season, it was the fifth away defeat in a row in European competition. 16 goals conceded in this context also speak for themselves and are an indication that lower odds are being offered on the home team between Midtjylland and Sturm Graz.
Midtjylland – Sturm Graz Head-to-head record
The clubs are not entirely unfamiliar with each other. They already faced each other in the Europa League group stage in 2022/23. At that time, the respective home team was able to gain the upper hand in both the first and second legs. The last time the two sides met was in the summer of 2024, when the Styrians won 3-1 in a friendly match. However, historical results do not play a major or relevant role in Tuesday evening’s direct duel at the MCH Arena. Nevertheless, it will be important, especially since Celtic Glasgow, Brann Bergen, Nottingham Midtjylland, and Sturm Graz have been drawn against three of the same opponents in the league phase.
Midtjylland – Sturm Graz Tip
A few weeks ago, Mike Tullberg, a well-known coach in this country, took over at FC Midtjylland. The long-time BVB youth coach, who also temporarily took charge of the professionals in the Bundesliga, has played three matches with his new team so far and celebrated two victories. The third triumph in a row is set to come on Tuesday evening in the Europa League against Sturm Graz.
Ideally, they will have the support of Sturm’s talented Franculino, who leads the scoring charts in Denmark with eight goals. For the Midtjylland vs. Sturm Graz match, the betting odds in the Bet365 app are 4.75 that the 21-year-old striker will put his team 1-0 ahead.
Alternatively, I think it makes sense to bet that the home team will not lose the game and that at least three goals will be scored in the 90 minutes. After all, there have been 28 goals in the Jutlanders’ five national home games so far.
