Will the Finns finish the job in Orhei?

In the clash between the national champions of Moldova and Finland, the Finns have the advantage after their 1-0 win last Tuesday. A draw would be enough for the so-called Keltamusta to advance to the second qualifying round of the Champions League, where either Olimpija Ljubljana or Qairat Almaty would await them. However, if Milsami beat KuPS at home, there would be extra time at the very least.

However, the statistics do not favor the Red Eagles, who have never beaten the Finns in three previous attempts (one draw, two defeats). In 2022/23, they even suffered a crushing 1-4 home defeat in the UEFA Europa League qualifiers. Thus, the prediction for Milsami against KuPS is that Keltamusta will advance, as they are in good form and have not lost in five competitive games (three wins, two draws).

Nevertheless, the players from the Raut will give everything they have at their home Distric Sport Complex to ensure that their hopes of a big adventure in the Champions League are not dashed in the very first round. So far, however, the Red Eagles have won only eight of their 37 European competitive games (ten draws, 19 defeats) and have never made it past the qualifying rounds. Against this backdrop, we expect the Finns to get the job done in Orhei.

Milsami – Statistics & current form

FC Milsami Orhei is a very young club, having only been founded in 2005. In the summer of 2009, the so-called Red Eagles (Moldovan: Vulturii rosii) were promoted to the country’s top division, where they won their first championship title in 2015, just ten years after the club was founded. The players from the Raut River thus became the first national champions of the Republic of Moldova not to come from Chisinau or Tiraspol.

This summer, the Red Eagles finally repeated this feat ten years later and came within a hair’s breadth of winning the double for Orhei. However, after their coup in the championship, they lost the cup final against Sheriff Tiraspol in an extremely hectic final phase with three goals and two red cards in the last five minutes of the game plus extra time.

Milsami with poor record in Europe

As reigning champions, the Red Eagles are now competing in the Champions League qualifiers for the first time in ten years. Back then, the Moldovan champions had to start in the second qualifying round, where the team from the diamond managed a surprise coup: with an aggregate score of 3-1, they eliminated Bulgaria’s serial champions Ludogorets Razgrad. However, the upstart has never made it to a European main round, which is due to its overall very poor record.

Of the 37 European competitive games played, all of which were in the qualifying rounds for the three UEFA competitions, only eight were won. With ten draws, last Tuesday’s first leg in Finland saw defeat number 19. No wonder, then, that the odds for a home win for the Red Eagles are unfavorable for Milsami against KuPS. At Bet-at-home, where a Bet-at-home voucher can currently be used, odds of 3.60 are being offered for tip 1, which is also due to the fact that coach Igor Picusceac’s team has won only two of its last eight competitive games across two seasons (three draws, three defeats).

Predicted line-up for Milsami:
Timbur – Takyi, Jardan, Lupano, Asmelash – Keita, Ginsari, Yoda, Khali – Kalabetama

KuPS – Statistics & current form

Finnish representatives Kuopion Palloseura – KuPS for short – have a long tradition dating back to 1923, but are also waiting to qualify for the group stage of a UEFA competition for the first time. In 2020, the Keltamusta (meaning “yellow and black”) failed to qualify for the Europa League playoffs after losing to Cluj. A year later, they were unable to get past 1. FC Union Berlin in the Conference League playoffs.

Now, the club, which won its seventh national championship in the land of a thousand lakes last fall, is starting all over again. At least Milsami’s prediction for the match against KuPS is that the Canaries (Finnish: Kanarialinnut) will make it to at least the second qualifying round of the Champions League. Coach Ari Lahti’s team did what they had to do in their 1-0 home win last Tuesday.

Will the KuPS defense remain solid in the second leg?

The European record of the team from Kuopio is anything but intimidating. The eastern Finnish team has won only 15 of its 57 European competitive games so far (16 draws, 26 defeats). However, their current form at least gives cause for hope that nothing will go wrong in the away game in Moldova. After all, KuPS has not lost any of its last five competitive games (three wins, two draws).

Of course, the defense will be crucial, led very professionally by veteran Ibrahim Cissé and 21-year-old prospect Samuli Miettinen, who has long been on the radar of several clubs in Europe’s top five leagues. In the first leg, for example, there was not a single shot on goal in the 1-0 home win, although Milsami had eight shots on goal and an expected goals against value of 0.94.

Predicted KuPS line-up:
Kreidl – Antwi, Miettinen, Cissé, Savolainen – Arifi, Oskanen – Pennanen, Ruoppi, Luyeye-Lutumba – Sadiku

Milsami – KuPS Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 2 – 1

The two teams have met three times in total, having already faced each other in the 2022/23 Europa League qualifiers. On that occasion, the Finns prevailed with an aggregate score of 6-3. With last week’s 1–0 home win, they extended their unbeaten run against FC Milsami to three games.

Milsami – KuPS Tip

All in all, our prediction for Milsami against KuPS is that the visitors from the land of a thousand lakes will advance, as they have the defensive potential to hold on to their 1-0 lead from the first leg in Orhei. In any case, the Keltamusta are in the comfortable position of being able to lie in wait for counterattacks from a stable defense, as the Red Eagles are clearly under pressure in the second leg and will have to play openly sooner or later. If a counterattack is successful, it could finally pull the plug on the hosts.

On the one hand, given the Finns’ solid defense, we don’t expect a high-scoring encounter, but on the other hand, we don’t expect the Red Eagles to get their first win against Keltamusta in their fourth attempt. To take both outcomes of our analysis into account, we recommend the combined bet on double chance X2 with under 3.5 goals.