Is Monaco facing another setback?

For AS Monaco, the clash with Manchester City is a special memory, as the only two competitive meetings between the two sides to date took place in the round of 16 of the 2016/17 Champions League. At that time, the French prevailed due to the away goals rule: after a 3-5 defeat in Manchester, Monaco won the return leg at Stade Louis II 3-1 – the overall score was 6-6.

This makes Monaco one of the very few clubs to have eliminated a team coached by Pep Guardiola before the quarterfinals of Europe’s premier club competition. Apart from Monaco, only Real Madrid managed this feat in the 2024/25 season (play-off round). In our Monaco vs. Manchester City prediction, we don’t believe the home side will win this time.

The Monegasques suffered a setback in Ligue 1 at the weekend, losing 3-1 to FC Lorient. This leaves them in fourth place with twelve points after six matchdays, level on points with third and fifth place. They suffered a 4-1 defeat in Bruges in their Champions League opener, leaving them in 33rd place in the Champions League table, which puts even more pressure on Monaco against Manchester City.

Manchester City are currently unbeaten in five competitive games, with the Citizens winning four times. In the Champions League, they started with a 2-0 win against Napoli, and in the league, they beat Burnley 5-1. This puts City in seventh place in the Premier League and ninth in the Champions League. In the Monaco vs. Manchester City odds, the bookmakers are predicting another win for the English side.

Monaco vs. Manchester City prediction AI

However, our AI calculates a higher probability of victory for the underdog from Monaco than the bookmakers. While Interwetten calculates a 16 percent probability of a home win, our AI calculates a 20.7 percent probability of a home win. This represents clear value, especially for more risk-tolerant bettors.

Monaco – Statistics & current form

Monaco’s home record against English clubs speaks for itself: AS Monaco has lost only one of seven Champions League games (five wins, one draw). If you believe in another victory, you can secure Monaco vs. Manchester City betting odds of 6.25 in the Interwetten app.

Their only defeat came in March 2015 against Arsenal (0-2). Monaco are particularly flawless at home against English opponents in the group or league phase: 1-0 against Liverpool in 2004/05, 2-1 against Tottenham in 2016/17 and 1-0 against Aston Villa in 2024/25.

Monaco’s form is on the decline

However, their recent form in the Champions League does not give cause for optimism: after a strong start to the 2024/25 season with three wins and a draw from their first four games, they have only managed one win in their last seven games (one draw, five defeats). Therefore, based on their current form, we are predicting a comfortable victory for the Citizens in our Monaco vs. Manchester City tip.

Three of these defeats saw them concede at least three goals, including the recent 4-1 loss to Club Brugge. Despite the clear defeat, Lamine Camara stood out – he was his team’s top player in terms of line-breaking passes (15), ball recoveries (10), and tackles (4). Therefore, in our Monaco vs. Manchester City prediction, we are once again expecting both teams to score, with at least three goals being scored.

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

Manchester City are facing Monaco for only the second time ever – memories of 2016/17 are likely to be painful for Pep Guardiola. Should Guardiola now also lose his first away game at Stade Louis II since 2017, it would be only the third time in his coaching career that he has lost his first two away games against the same opponent (previously against Barcelona in 2016 and Liverpool in 2018).

Nevertheless, there is a lot going for the Citizens: Guardiola has lost only two of his 33 games on the first two matchdays of the Champions League in his career – curiously, both against French teams (Lyon in 2018/19 and PSG in 2021/22). Otherwise, he has recorded 26 wins and five draws in this phase.

Haaland continues to score – but only at home

The latest performance also underlines this claim: Rodri delivered 17 line-breaking passes against Napoli in his first Champions League game after a year’s break – the second-highest number for a midfielder on Matchday 1 (behind Pedri with 20 against Newcastle). Phil Foden also shone with eight chances created, as many as Maycon of Shakhtar Donetsk last achieved on Matchday 1 in 2021/22.

Striker Erling Haaland has already made history: in his last Champions League game for City, he became the fastest player to score 50 goals in the competition – after only 49 appearances. But his away record remains striking: only 16 of his 50 goals have been scored in away games, which corresponds to a share of 32 percent.

Among all players with at least 50 goals in the Champions League, only Raul (31 percent) has a lower away rate. This time, you can find Monaco vs. Manchester City odds of 1.60 for a goal by the Norwegian.

Monaco – Manchester City Head-to-head record

AS Monaco and Manchester City have met twice in the Champions League so far. Both teams have won one game each, so the record is even. The goals are also evenly matched: a total of six goals were scored in each of the two games, making it 6:6 on goals. However, the last encounters are already several years in the past.

Monaco – Manchester City Tip

Monaco have lost only one of their last seven home games in the Champions League, but have recently suffered a significant dip in form, winning only one of their last seven CL games.

For the tip “Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals,” you will receive Monaco vs. Manchester City betting odds of 1.95. We consider this tip to be extremely realistic, as it would have been successful in six of Monaco’s last seven games.

Guardiola, on the other hand, has lost only two of the last 33 matches on the first two Champions League matchdays – so the Citizens are the clear favorites in this match. Haaland has been very accurate in the Champions League, but has had problems scoring away from home. However, with Monaco’s defense currently weak, we believe he will find a way.