Are the Rossoneri aiming to defend their title?
For some time now, the Supercoppa Italiana has been played in Saudi Arabia. For the third time in a row, the decision will be made in a four-team tournament format. Defending champions AC Milan are back in the running as Coppa Italia finalists and will face the reigning champions, who have lost their last two competitive games without scoring, in the semifinals.
That’s why we’re leaning towards tip 2 for Napoli vs. AC Milan. After all, the Rossoneri haven’t lost any of their last 14 Serie A games (nine wins, five draws), but they have struggled to score goals at times.
It is clear that both teams’ core strength lies in their defensive work. In 15 league games in the 2025/26 season, both teams have conceded only 13 goals in total – an average of just 0.87 goals per game. Given this background, we do not expect a goal fest at King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh, so the Napoli vs. AC Milan prediction that a maximum of two goals will be scored in regular time is a very reasonable alternative to the rather vague three-way system.
It is also conceivable that there will be a very long period of feeling each other out. After all, the transition is not easy for the teams. Just this weekend, there were significant setbacks in the battle for the Scudetto. Napoli suffered a surprise 0-1 defeat to Udinese, while Milan could not get past a 2-2 draw against Sassuolo. Immediately afterwards, they boarded a plane to another country, where the climatic conditions are completely different.
Against this backdrop, it is quite possible that the first half will be a rather tough affair, which is why we suggest as an alternative that there will be less than 0.75 goals in the first half.
Napoli – AC Milan Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 53 – 54 – 71
A total of 178 matches have taken place between the two teams so far, with AC Milan leading the head-to-head record with 71 wins.
The Rossoneri also won the Serie A match against SSC Napoli 2–1 at their home ground, San Siro, and have lost only two of their last eight matches against the Partenopei (four wins, two draws).
Napoli – AC Milan Tip
Not only have the Rossoneri already beaten the Campanians 2-1 in Serie A, but they also have a little more momentum overall. However, they have struggled in front of goal at times, which is why – if the latest media reports are to be believed – Niclas Füllkrug is currently on his way to the Italian fashion capital.
However, both sides are currently lacking goalscorers, which also has a decisive influence on our prediction for Napoli vs. AC Milan. No Partenopei player has scored more than four goals in the first 15 matchdays of Serie A. For the Lombards, the only player with more than five goals is Christian Pulisic (seven).
Due to external circumstances, we also assume that the game between two teams that primarily operate from a stable defense could get off to a slow start. A tactical start makes a 0-0 score at halftime anything but unlikely, which is why we find the greatest value in a maximum of two goals being scored in regular time.
For under 2.5 goals in total, the betting odds for Napoli vs. AC Milan are 1.60, which we are betting on at Bet-at-home with five out of ten units.
