Will Napoli remain scoreless again?
Since metrics such as expected goals and expected points have come onto the market, the saying “the table never lies” has taken on a strange connotation. This is also illustrated by our Napoli vs. Atalanta Bergamo tip. The reigning champions are in fourth place in the table with 22 points after eleven games, well ahead of La Dea (13 points, 13th place).
However, our Napoli vs. Atalanta Bergamo prediction is based more on the distribution of expected points. According to these figures, Atalanta should actually take over fourth place from the home team (17.7 xPTS), while Gli Azzurri would only be in eighth place (16.6 xPTS).
Apparently, the best betting providers see things a little differently. At home, SSC Napoli is the favorite with Napoli – Atalanta Bergamo betting odds of around 2.20. Without knowing the expected values, that would be perfectly understandable – the reigning champions are still unbeaten at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (4W, 1D).
Recently, however, the Partenopei’s trend has been pointing in a different direction. First, Conte’s team dropped points at home for the first time against Como (0-0), then followed a 2-0 away defeat against FC Bologna. Especially in the attacking third, the fourth-placed team couldn’t find their way into the desired zones.
The SSC’s recent low-scoring encounters have not been a coincidence. Neither the volume nor the quality of scoring chances has been satisfactory in the previous three league games. Against Lecce (1-0), Como (0-0), and Bologna (0-2), Conte’s team scored less than one expected goal.
Napoli – Atalanta Bergamo Head-to-head record / H2H balance
You shouldn’t place too much weight on previous results in your own analysis, but a quick look at the last few encounters can’t hurt. It is striking that seven of the eight previous encounters between Napoli and Atalanta Bergamo went to the respective away team.
The next game could confirm this trend. La Dea conceded a maximum of one goal in ten of eleven league games and also finished six of the eleven matches with under 1.0 expected goals conceded. In addition, the total number of expected goals conceded (10.17 xGA) is also a top-3 value, as is the average quality of chances conceded (0.09 xGA/shot).
Napoli – Atalanta Bergamo Tip
Napoli has earned 2.60 points per home game this league season – a terrific figure, but one that has come about somewhat fortuitously. After all, the expected goal difference at home is negative (-0.2 xGD) and 6.3 expected goals conceded in five home games is a little too much for a team with title ambitions.
Added to this is the Bergamo team’s clever positioning when defending – especially in and around their own penalty area. No other team in Serie A has allowed a lower rate of opponent shots from within their own box than La Dea (51.30 percent).
Neither team is in particularly good form. Atalanta are without a win in seven league games and have recently changed coaches. Raffaele Palladino will be on the bench next weekend and is expected to turn things around. However, the underlying statistics point to a very solid start to the season.
The Bergamaschi don’t need to change much, and the squad is certainly competitive. In contrast, Napoli are not playing nearly as dominantly this season as they did last season – which can be attributed, among other things, to the long-term absence of Romelu Lukaku.
