Will the Partenopei take out their frustration on the Viola?
SSC Napoli has had to cope with two heavy setbacks in the last week and a half. First, the Italian champions failed to finish in the top 24 and were eliminated from the Champions League after picking up just one point from a possible six in their last two games. Then, a crushing 3-0 defeat at Juventus Turin dashed their hopes of defending their Serie A title. If Napoli fail to win at home against Fiorentina, the Azzurri could even lose their fourth place in the table, which would jeopardize their right to compete in the Champions League again.
However, based on their current position, the Partenopei should be able to win this home game. The southern Italians are the only Serie A club besides Juventus to remain completely undefeated at home (seven wins, three draws), conceding only eight goals at home, and now welcome a club that has won only one of its eleven away games in the 2025/26 season (five draws, five defeats). Against this backdrop, we find the greatest value in the three-way system and are betting quite straightforwardly that the Azzurri’s pent-up frustration will be unleashed on their guests from Tuscany.
However, we would not expect a goal fest, especially as the Neapolitans still have a brutally full infirmary and have to do without numerous key players such as Kevin De Bruyne, Frank Anguissa, Matteo Politano and David Neres. In any case, the Partenopei’s strength lies in defense. Against this backdrop, if you wouldn’t rule out a possible 0-0 or even 1-1 draw, you can also play the match combo on the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.57 for Napoli vs. Fiorentina via the Betano app.
Napoli – Fiorentina Head-to-head record
Head to head: 65 – 51 – 50
A total of 176 matches have already taken place between the two teams, with SSC Napoli clearly leading the head-to-head record against ACF Fiorentina with 65 wins. Not only have the Partenopei won all of their last three Serie A games against the Viola, they are also unbeaten in their last five competitive games against the Tuscan side (four wins, one draw).
Napoli – Fiorentina Tip
After a disastrous start to the season, the Viola gradually emerged from their crisis and recorded their first and only three wins of the season in Serie A between matchdays 16 and 21. However, the haul of 11 points from a possible 18 only brought the Gigliati (meaning “the lilies”) up to 17 points.
The flagship club from Tuscany remains in a direct relegation spot, which is why, despite their recent failures, the prediction for a home win for the Partenopei against Fiorentina seems to be the only option. After all, the Viola have also lost their last two competitive games in a row.
In addition, Antonio Conte’s team is considered strong at home. At the foot of Vesuvius, the Partenopei remained completely unbeaten in ten Serie A home games in the 2025/26 season (seven wins, three draws). Accordingly, it is a good bet to tip the Azzurri for their next home win, as they have also won all of their last three direct duels with the Gigliati.
