Will Frankfurt also go down at the foot of Vesuvius?

Normally, Eintracht Frankfurt’s loyal and travel-loving fan base is a major asset. On Tuesday evening, however, no SGE fans will be allowed to support their team in the stadium during the fourth matchday of the UEFA Champions League. This is due to serious security concerns, which in turn are based on the last direct encounters around two and a half years ago. As if the task against the Italian champions wasn’t complicated enough, this unusual circumstance also means that the odds on the hosts are significantly lower between Napoli and Frankfurt.

The fact that the Hessians will have to do without vocal support is a clear disadvantage, especially in the current phase. After all, coach Dino Toppmöller’s team is definitely not at the peak of its performance. The Eagles have won only one of their last seven competitive games. The previous week ended with two bitter setbacks. First in the DFB Cup, where they lost to Borussia Dortmund on penalties, and then in the Bundesliga, where SGE could only manage a disappointing 1-1 draw at bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim.

However, what could play into the Bundesliga club’s hands is the fact that the hosts from the foot of Vesuvius are also under pressure in a way. They lost their last Champions League match in Eindhoven in an embarrassing 6-2 defeat. The reigning Scudetto winners have only three points to their name after three matchdays. Three points against Eintracht are therefore definitely on the cards for Conte’s team.

Napoli vs. Frankfurt Prediction AI

While, according to AI, the probability of a home win is 55.6%, the odds offered on the betting markets are significantly lower. Value could therefore even be found in the Napoli vs. Frankfurt betting odds for the double chance X2. Alternatively, the AI prediction of under 3 goals (Asian) can also be recommended for the Napoli vs. Frankfurt match, especially since the sum of the xG values (1.77 vs. 1.00) amounts to 2.77.

Napoli – Statistics & current form

It has been two weeks since Calcio Napoli suffered a bitter defeat on the third matchday of the Champions League. The Neapolitans were crushed 6-2 by PSV Eindhoven, setting a new record in the process. Never before in his highly successful coaching career had Antonio Conte seen one of his teams concede six goals. However, the reaction was swift, and just four days later, Inter Milan were defeated 3-1 at home in the league. Incidentally, these two results already provide the first argument in favor of the Partenopei.

Napoli are doomed to win at home

The reigning Italian champions are significantly stronger at home than away. In five home games in Serie A, Napoli have picked up 13 out of a possible 15 points. Away from home, however, they have only picked up nine. They have also lost both of their away games in the UEFA Champions League so far. Only at home against Sporting Lisbon did they manage to pick up three points.

Because the men from the foot of Vesuvius have lost only one of their last 18 (!) CL games in front of their own fans (11-6-1) and have now scored at least once in 21 consecutive home games in the Champions League, my prediction for the match between Napoli and Frankfurt is once again quite clearly in favor of the southern Italians.

Currently 23rd in the Champions League group stage and having conceded nine goals in three games, a win is imperative on Tuesday evening. Coach Conte will still have to do without his two Belgian star players, Lukaku and de Bruyne. However, a Scotsman, among others, will step into the breach. Scott McTominay has already scored twice against PSV Eindhoven, scored once against Inter Milan, and, thanks to his enormous physicality and box-to-box qualities, I believe he is once again a contender to score. If you share this opinion, you can cash in on odds of up to 3.00 for a McTominay goal in the Bet365 app before the Napoli vs. Frankfurt game.

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

On the first three matchdays of this Champions League group stage, one thing was certain about Eintracht Frankfurt: that after 90 minutes, the scoreboard would read 5-1! While the Eagles enjoyed such a resounding victory in their opening game against Galatasaray, they have since suffered 5-1 defeats at Atletico Madrid and at home against Liverpool. Only in games involving Borussia Dortmund have there been more goals on average (6.3) than in games involving the Hessians (6.0).

Because Coach Toppmöller’s team currently has the weakest defense of the 36 clubs in the CL main round, conceding a total of eleven goals – along with Ajax Amsterdam – I find it quite exciting to bet that the Neapolitans will also be able to celebrate at least two goals at home. Over 1.5 Napoli goals still bring 1.53 at Interwetten.

There is a lot to be said against Eintracht Frankfurt

I am rather skeptical about SGE’s overall chances at the Stadio Diego Maradona. On the one hand, the Black, Red and Whites are not brimming with confidence after only one win in their last seven competitive games (2-0 against a weak FC St. Pauli). On the other hand, Can Uzun, a very important offensive player, suffered a muscle injury at the weekend that will keep him sidelined until further notice.

Given that Eintracht has had to rely primarily on scoring more goals than conceding at the back so far this season due to weak defensive performances, an improvement in results is not necessarily to be expected in the short term. In addition, Frankfurt last won away more than a month ago and, as announced, will have to do without fans in the stadium on Tuesday evening. The omens for a potential surprise coup could hardly be worse.

Napoli – Frankfurt Head-to-head record

These clubs have met four times in the past. Both in the 1994/95 UEFA Cup and in the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League season, the clubs met in the round of 16. While Eintracht prevailed in both legs over 30 years ago and secured their place in the quarterfinals, Calcio Napoli came out on top two and a half years ago.

The Partenopei won 2-0 in the Main metropolis. At home, they followed up with a 3-0 victory – still the second-highest SSC home win in the Champions League to date! Frankfurt have now returned from Italy three times in a row without a win and without scoring a goal in the European Cup. Will this negative streak continue?

Napoli – Frankfurt Tip

Napoli and Frankfurt each have three points after three matchdays. The direct duel at the foot of Vesuvius is therefore decisive for both clubs. The problem from the perspective of the visitors from Frankfurt, however, is that almost all the facts speak against them. On the one hand, Napoli have lost only one of their last 18 CL home games and have also performed significantly better at home than away in the current season. On the other hand, SGE are not in good shape. One win from their last seven games, eleven goals conceded in three CL games and a disappointing week including elimination from the cup support this thesis. As does the painful loss of Can Uzun.

I am therefore convinced that Conte’s team will win Tuesday evening’s game. I think the odds of 1.62 for the Napoli vs. Frankfurt tip are absolutely fine, so I’m betting six units on it. In my opinion, it’s also obvious that the home team will score at least two goals.