Will Napoli stay on top?
On Wednesday evening, SSC Napoli and Parma Calcio 1913 will face each other in Italy’s top flight. The roles are quite clear in advance, as the hosts are currently serious contenders for the championship, while the visitors are languishing in the middle of the Serie A table.
Carlos Cuesta’s team has earned 21 points from its first 19 games and is currently in 14th place. The “Crociati” (Crusaders) are seven points ahead of the relegation zone, but also 13 points behind the international spots. Consequently, it is no surprise that the Napoli vs. Parma odds clearly favor a home win. The maximum odds for an Azzurri victory are currently only 1.35 and can be found at Betway.
In our Napoli vs. Parma prediction, we want to take a closer look at both teams and check whether the bookmakers’ odds distribution corresponds to reality. We’ll start with the home and away records of the two teams and come to a very clear conclusion.
SSC have not lost a single home game in Italy’s top flight and could even take the lead in the home table with a win against the Gialloblu (Yellow-Blues). This scenario is quite realistic, as Carlos Cuesta’s team are not particularly strong away from home, with only twelve points from nine away games.
In the first two sections of our analysis, there is a lot to be said for a Napoli vs. Parma tip in favor of a home win. However, the table position and the home and away records do not always reflect current form, which is why we are now taking a look at the past few weeks.
However, the picture is not completely different, as the “Partenopei” (Parthenopeans) have been in excellent form recently, picking up 14 points from their last six games. Antonio Conte’s team cemented their status as title contenders with a 2-2 draw against Inter Milan. The visitors may not quite be able to keep up, but with ten points from their last six competitive games, Carlos Cuesta’s team has also been in good form. So it won’t be easy for the Champions League participants from the west coast of Italy.
Napoli – Parma Head-to-head record
Before we come to our final assessment of the match, let’s take a look at the head-to-head record between the two teams. It is much closer than expected, with SSC only narrowly ahead with 19 wins in 42 games. Strictly speaking, the visitors have won only four games fewer, bringing their total to 15 victories.
In the recent past, however, things have become somewhat more one-sided, as the visiting team has now gone four meetings without a win against Napoli. In addition, the Ham City team lost three of the four encounters and secured only one point. The underdogs scored only one goal, and that was from the penalty spot. This is one of the reasons why the Napoli vs. Parma betting odds are so clearly in favor of a home win.
Napoli – Parma Tip
As we indicated at the beginning of our match prediction, we cannot ignore the Napoli vs. Parma tip for a home win. Antonio Conte’s team has better individual players, has not lost a single competitive match at home, and is also in better form. However, the odds for a win are not particularly high, so we have decided to place a bet with Interwetten’s Betbuilder.
We are adding the line of under 3.5 goals in the game to the win bet, giving us maximum odds of 1.90. Why are we adding this goal bet? Quite simply because the visitors have only scored seven goals in nine away games. Five of those were against Lecce, Pisa, and Verona – three relegation candidates. Defensively, Napoli should not be in trouble.
For those of you who would rather stay away from a win bet in this match, we are offering the Napoli vs. Parma odds for “both teams to score – no.”
Nevertheless, this bet seems worthwhile, as at least one of the two teams has failed to score in three of the last four encounters. This is mainly due to the visiting team’s weak offense, as with only 14 goals in 19 league games, the visitors have the second-weakest offense in Serie A. So far, only US Lecce (13) has scored fewer goals.
