Will the Azzurri turn things around?

SSC Napoli welcomes Qarabag FK to their home stadium, Stadio Armando Maradona, on Tuesday evening. Antonio Conte’s team won 3-1 at home against Atalanta Bergamo in the last round of Serie A matches. This puts the southern Italians in third place in the domestic table. It was also only the second time that the Neapolitans have scored three goals at home. Qarabag, on the other hand, also won in their own league, further consolidating their lead at the top of the table.

The Azzuri are still struggling in the Champions League, picking up just four points in their first four games. At least SSC are still unbeaten at home in the CL and Serie A. In their two games in Europe’s premier competition, the Italians have conceded just one goal and scored two. In our Napoli vs. Qarabag FK prediction, we forecast another win for the home side, with under 3.5 goals scored.

Qarabag FK, on the other hand, has performed unexpectedly well in the Champions League so far and is already in 15th place with seven points. They have two wins against Copenhagen and Benfica, as well as a remarkable draw against Chelsea. The Azerbaijanis have already scored eight goals, but they have also conceded seven. Since Qarabag scored in both halves in all four games, we predict that there will be goals in both halves again in our Napoli vs. Qarabag FK prediction.

Napoli vs. Qarabag FK Prediction AI

The bookmakers’ betting odds for Napoli vs. Qarabag FK are very similar to our AI prediction. They also clearly favor the hosts. However, there are differences in terms of goals scored by both sides. While the bookmaker Interwetten predicts an approximate probability of 56% for no goals scored by either side with odds of 1.77, AI predicts a probability of 62% for no goals scored by either side. So there is clearly value to be had here!

Napoli – Statistics & current form

Napoli goes into the game on a mixed run of form. In the UEFA Champions League, they have managed just one win in their last six games, with two draws and three defeats. If you’re expecting a surprise and don’t think the southern Italians will win, you can secure Napoli vs. Qarabag FK odds on the visitors for a double chance of 3.65 in the Betano app.

The defense has been particularly problematic recently, with Napoli conceding an average of more than two goals per game over this period, 13 goals in total. At least they managed to secure a goalless draw against Eintracht Frankfurt on the most recent matchday, keeping a clean sheet at home for the first time this season. In our Napoli vs. Qarabag FK prediction, we also think that both teams will not score.

Napoli remains a home powerhouse

Despite these fluctuations, Napoli is an established force in the Champions League at its own stadium. The Italians have lost only one of their last 19 home games, winning eleven and drawing seven. Their only defeat came against Real Madrid, the eventual winners.

Offensively, Rasmus Höjlund remains a decisive factor. The striker has scored seven goals in nine Champions League appearances and has the best conversion rate of any player with at least 13 attempts since the start of the 2023/24 season, at 47 percent. In midfield, Frank Anguissa shapes the team’s pressing behavior: he has made 242 intense presses, more than any other midfielder in the current competition, and has won back a particularly high number of balls in the central zone.

Qarabag FK – Statistics & current form

Qarabag has been much more stable in this Champions League season than in its previous participation. The Azerbaijanis have lost only one of four games, with two wins and one draw. They have already scored eight goals, quadrupling their goal tally from the 2017/18 season, when they scored only two goals in total.

Leandro Andrade is the most notable offensive player. The Cape Verdean has scored in three of their four games and converts his chances with a remarkable efficiency of 75 percent.

Weakness against the Italians?

Historically, however, Qarabag has had major problems against Italian teams. In six European matches, they have suffered five defeats and one draw. They have also lost both of their previous Champions League matches against a Serie A representative, both against Roma. In our Napoli vs. Qarabag FK prediction, we expect another defeat.

Nevertheless, the team has shown structural stability this year. They have made only three changes to their starting lineup and have ten players who have started every game so far. This clear framework ensures continuity in their play, even if the challenge against a home team like Napoli is much greater.

Napoli – Qarabag FK Head-to-head record

This is the first ever meeting between the two teams. Despite Qarabag’s better start to the Champions League, the odds are clearly in favor of the hosts.

Napoli – Qarabag FK Tip

SSC Napoli are still clear favorites going into this game against Qarabag FK, despite having only four points from their first four games. The Neapolitans are still unbeaten in all eight home games this season – with only two goalless draws. In addition, they have lost only one of their 19 games in front of their home crowd in the Champions League and are traditionally difficult to beat at home. With Rasmus Höjlund, the Azzurri also have a very accurate striker who has scored seven times in his last nine CL appearances.

Qarabag, on the other hand, have been very strong in this Champions League season, losing only one of their four competitive games. The Azerbaijanis have scored at least one goal in each of those games, with goals coming in both halves in all of them. Qurbanov’s team traditionally struggle against Italian sides, with no wins and five defeats in six encounters so far.