Can Napoli correct their false start?

SSC Napoli welcomes Sporting Lisbon to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradonna. Napoli got off to a bad start on the first matchday of the Champions League, losing 2-0 to Manchester City. Of their six competitive games so far, Napoli have lost two, but both were away games. Sporting Lisbon, on the other hand, got off to a successful start to the CL season with a 4-1 win over newcomers Karat Almaty and are currently in good form.

Napoli suffered their second defeat of the season last weekend, losing 2-1 to AC Milan. This was their second defeat of the season after their Champions League opener against City. At home, Napoli have recorded two wins against Pisa and Cagliari, putting them in second place in Serie A. This puts them level on points with AC Milan and AS Roma.

Sporting Lisbon got off to a flying start in the Champions League and won their first league game. Things are also looking very good in their domestic league at the moment – in their first seven league games, Sporting recorded six wins and lost only to FC Porto. This also puts them in second place in the table, just like Napoli, with only Porto ahead of them with seven wins from seven games.

Napoli vs. Sporting Lisbon Prediction AI

According to the bookmakers, the probability of under 2.5 goals in the game is 62%.

Napoli – Statistics & current form

Napoli goes into its third meeting with Sporting with a special statistic: the two previous encounters in 1989/90 ended 0-0, with Napoli only prevailing in the UEFA Cup on penalties. The Italian club has a flawless record against Portuguese opponents in the Champions League: four wins from four games – twice against Benfica in 2016/17 and twice against Braga in 2023/24. In our Napoli vs. Sporting Lisbon prediction, we are expecting victory number five.

Coach Antonio Conte faces Sporting Lisbon for the third time, but has yet to win. In the 2022/23 season, he drew once and lost once with Tottenham in the group stage. Conte’s only other winless runs in the Champions League were against Barcelona and Real Madrid (four each).

De Bruyne set for debut

However, the start of the current season has been bumpy. In the defeat against Manchester City, Napoli only managed a single shot on goal, taken by defender Sam Beukema. The Dutchman still stood out, though: With 38 passes, he was the most active playmaker, winning six tackles and clearing nine times in his own penalty area. The age difference is also striking: at 29 years and 189 days, Napoli fielded the fourth-oldest starting lineup on matchday 1. In our Napoli vs. Sporting Lisbon prediction, we don’t expect the Italians to score more than one goal.

Special attention will be paid to Kevin De Bruyne, who is set to make his first European Cup appearance at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. His only competitive game there to date was in November 2017, when he provided an assist for Manchester City in their 4-2 win over Napoli.

Sporting Lisbon – Statistics & current form

Sporting Lisbon travels to Italy with a clear disadvantage: in 18 away games against Italian clubs in European competition, they have yet to win a single game (five draws, 13 defeats). In our Napoli vs. Sporting Lisbon prediction, we believe the Portuguese will remain winless once again.

However, the only scoreless result in this long series was a 0-0 draw in Naples in September 1989. The two previous direct duels with Napoli in that UEFA Cup ended goalless, with Sporting only being eliminated on penalties. In our Napoli vs. Sporting Lisbon prediction, supported by our AI, we are again betting on few goals – namely less than 2.5.

Will Sporting manage a second win in a row?

Under Rui Borges, the Portuguese now have the chance to make history. A win would see them win their first two group games of a Champions League season for the first time since 2022/23. Back then, they started with wins against Eintracht Frankfurt (3-0) and Tottenham (2-0).

The young team already showed their potential on matchday 1. With an average age of 24 years and 255 days, Sporting fielded the second-youngest starting lineup in the entire group stage. Key players such as Trincão and Pote stood out: Trincão scored twice in the opening game – as many times as in his first 22 games in the Champions League combined – and shone with seven successful dribbles, a personal best. For another goal from the Portuguese player, you can expect Napoli vs. Sporting Lisbon goal odds of 4.50.

Pote also completed seven dribbles, achieving a 100% success rate. The last time such effectiveness was seen was in the 2023 Champions League final, when John Stones also managed seven for Manchester City against Inter Milan.

Napoli – Sporting Lisbon Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record between Napoli and Sporting CP has been uneventful so far. The two teams have met twice in European competition – in the Europa League – and both games ended goalless. This leaves the record at two draws and a total goal difference of 0-0.

Napoli – Sporting Lisbon Tip

After both teams last met in the UEFA Cup in 1989, the third duel between the teams is now taking place. Sporting are currently in good form in the league, winning six of their seven league games – but Italian teams remain a weak point for the Portuguese: they have yet to win a single away game in 18 attempts. Napoli, on the other hand, have lost two of their last three games – they failed to score in their opening Champions League game. Therefore, we expect no more than one goal from the Italians.

Overall, we expect a defensive game and no more than three goals. This tip is supported by our AI and is considered 62% likely. However, the Portuguese, who are in good form, should not be underestimated.