Can Arsenal stay at the top?
Arsenal Football Club fans certainly can’t complain about a lack of action this early in the Premier League season. After matches against Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, and Manchester City last weekend, the Gunners face another tough test on Sunday afternoon against another Champions League participant. The relatively high odds for the Newcastle vs. Arsenal tip in favor of the Londoners underscore how difficult the task will be at St. James Park.
To make matters worse, Arsenal have lost more league games under Arteta only to Manchester City than to NUFC. The Magpies have even won all of their last three home games in the Premier League against the reigning runners-up. Considering that Eddie Howe’s team has kept a clean sheet in four of five league games this season, my prediction for the Newcastle vs. Arsenal match is not necessarily a win for the visitors.
Instead, the strong defensive records of both clubs should definitely be taken into account. The 13th-placed team conceded all three of their goals this season against the league leaders Liverpool, while Arsenal keeper David Raya has only had to pick the ball out of the net twice. But that’s not all, because the two clubs also rank first and second in the xGA (expected goals against) rankings.
I therefore expect a rather tough encounter in which it could take a while for the first goal to be scored. In light of this assessment, the odds on under goals are becoming increasingly important between Newcastle and Arsenal. If 1.75 on a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes isn’t high enough for you, you’ll find an impressive 2.85 in the Interwetten app on the score being 0-0 at half-time.
Newcastle – Arsenal Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The head-to-head comparison was already touched upon briefly in the second part of the introduction. In fact, St. James Park has not been a particularly good place for the Gunners in recent years. Three consecutive PL away defeats without scoring a goal have left their mark and are undoubtedly an argument against placing a three-way bet on Arteta’s team.
However, there is hope in the fact that the Londoners have only lost one of their last 16 league games away from home (8-7-1) – at the end of August in Liverpool. Exciting: since 2022, the capital club has only lost twice in two consecutive PL away games. Both times, the second defeat came in Newcastle…
Newcastle – Arsenal Tip
Newcastle United has been pragmatic so far this PL season. In four of NUFC’s five games, a bet on under 1.5 (!) would have paid off. Three of Howe’s team’s matches ended 0-0. This results in a remarkable statistic of only 2.6 xGA and the fewest shots allowed (37), but also a pitiful shot conversion rate of 5.6%. The Magpies are certainly not known for spectacular play and will logically not change this approach in their home game against the runners-up.
Especially considering that the Gunners are also a defensively strong team. The Londoners have kept three clean sheets and have only conceded one goal each against Liverpool and Manchester City so far. However, Arteta’s team has failed to score in its last three PL away games at St. James Park.
All of the above facts ultimately lead me to bet on under goals between Newcastle and Arsenal. I am particularly fond of under 0.5 (1st half). Under 2.5 after 90 minutes would also be a good compromise.
