The Basques with a poor away record

Newcastle United and Athletic Bilbao are meeting for the first time since the 1994 UEFA Cup, when the Basques advanced 3-3 thanks to the away goals rule. In the current Champions League, Newcastle are eighth in the table after two consecutive wins. Bilbao, on the other hand, are in 21st place with only three points, after picking up their first three points against Qarabag in their last CL game.

The Magpies have won their last four games in a row at home, keeping three clean sheets in the process. However, they suffered a surprising 1-3 defeat at the weekend against West Ham, who are second from bottom in the table. This leaves Howe’s team in 13th place in the Premier League table. What is striking about Newcastle is their scoring sequence – in their last five games, they have always scored in the first half. That’s why we’re predicting another early goal for the English side in our Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction.

Bilbao, on the other hand, lost their first two Champions League games against Arsenal and Dortmund and are particularly weak away from home: they have lost four of their six competitive games so far, which is why our Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao tip is on the hosts.

Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction AI

Our AI basically agrees with the probabilities for Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao and also sees the English side as the clear favorites in the game. The probabilities that most closely match are those for the tip that not both teams will score. This tip could also provide value, as the Magpies have played to nil in their last two CL games.

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Newcastle United is currently enjoying an impressive run in the UEFA Champions League. After an early exit last season, the Magpies have already surpassed their record: with six points after three matchdays, they are in their best position in over two decades. Another win would take them to nine points in the group stage for the first time since the 2002/03 season.

Particularly noteworthy are their recent performances at their home ground, St. James’ Park, where Newcastle celebrated their biggest win in Champions League history with a 4-0 victory over Union Saint-Gilloise, followed by a confident 3-0 win over Benfica. This could see the English side record three consecutive wins in a European competition for the first time since March 2007. For a third consecutive clean sheet victory, you can secure Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao odds of 2.47 in the Betano app.

Gordon and Murphy lead the attack

The offense is led by Anthony Gordon, who has become the team’s new hope. The winger has already scored four goals in the current Champions League season and is the first Newcastle professional ever to score in three consecutive games in this competition. In our Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, we are betting on the Englishman to score again.

Jacob Murphy is also a threat with his assists: in just five appearances, he has contributed three assists, making him one of an exclusive group of English players who have recorded at least three assists in their first five Champions League games.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

For Athletic Club Bilbao, the current Champions League season has been much more difficult so far. The Basques lost their first three competitive games against English opponents in 2025 – including twice against Manchester United in the Europa League semi-finals and against Arsenal at the start of this Champions League season. Should they suffer another defeat, Athletic would become only the second Spanish team ever to lose four times to English clubs in a calendar year – a negative record previously set only by Atlético Madrid in 2021.

Bilbao also has major problems away from home: the team has failed to win any of its last five European away games (one draw, four defeats), including three 1-4 losses. No Spanish club has ever lost three consecutive international away games by more than three goals. Based on these statistics, our Newcastle vs. Athletic Bilbao tip is for the hosts from England.

The Basques’ away weakness

The statistics against English teams further underscore their away weakness: only one win in ten away games on the island – a 3-2 victory at Manchester United in March 2012 under Marcelo Bielsa – speaks for itself. Offensively, Athletic can at least rely on Gorka Guruzeta, who has scored three goals in three games in this Champions League season and would make club history with another goal: never before has an Athletic player scored in three consecutive games in the premier class.

On the other hand, goalkeeper Unai Simón is a cause for concern, having conceded seven goals in the first three group games, even though the expected goals against (xGOT) was only 3.75 – a clear indication of a dip in form that is costing the team dearly. In addition, the Basques have conceded in the first half in each of their last two Champions League games – bookmakers are offering odds of 1.60 for Newcastle to concede another early goal before the break against Athletic Bilbao.

Newcastle – Athletic Bilbao Head-to-head record

Newcastle United and Athletic Club Bilbao are evenly matched in head-to-head encounters. The two teams have met twice in European competition so far – both times in the Europa League – with each winning one game. The goal difference of 3:3 underlines how close the previous encounters have been. While Newcastle won the home game 3:2, the Basques won the return leg 1:0 and advanced thanks to the away goals rule.

Newcastle – Athletic Bilbao Tip

Newcastle are currently in very good form, winning their last four home games in a row – three of them without conceding a goal. They have scored before half-time in six of their last eight home games. They have also won their last two Champions League games in a row – with a third consecutive victory, they could achieve such a run in European competition for the first time since 2007. Gordon is currently the Magpies’ guaranteed goalscorer, having scored in every CL game so far.

Bilbao, on the other hand, has its weaknesses, especially away from home: they have won only one of their last ten away games on the island. In addition, the Basques have been winless in their last five European away games and have already conceded seven goals in their first three Champions League games in the group stage.