Who will secure three important points in the relegation battle?

On Monday, July 21, 2025, IFK Norrköping and IFK Värnamo will face each other in the highest Swedish league. The roles seem to be clearly defined in advance, as the home team is in twelfth place with 15 points, while the visitors are at the bottom of the Allsvenskan table with only seven points. It is therefore no surprise that the Norrköping vs. Värnamo tip from German bookmakers favors a home win. However, as neither team has had a particularly good start to the season, we wonder whether there really is a favorite in this match.

To answer this question, we take a closer look at the two teams. We start with the home and away records of both teams and already come to an initial conclusion. The visitors are incredibly weak away from home, picking up just one point in seven away games (1-1 vs. GAIS Gothenburg). However, the advantage is not that great, as the home team has not really delivered in their own stadium either, with only seven points in eight home games. In our Norrköping vs. Värnamo prediction, we therefore need to go into a little more detail to understand why the bookies are leaning towards a home win.

Norrköping – Statistics & current form

Norrköping is already an established team in Sweden’s top division and has been playing in the top flight since 2011. The icing on the cake was clearly the championship title in 2015. Since then, however, things have been going downhill for the club and the relegation battle is a daily occurrence. So far, Martin Falk’s team has managed to avoid the drop, repeatedly saving themselves at the last minute. In the previous season, for example, “VitaBlå” was only three points ahead of the relegation zone. This season, the picture is quite similar, as the home side are only in twelfth place with 15 points from 15 games and are once again fighting to avoid relegation. A win against bottom-of-the-table Värnamo would therefore be extremely important.

Norrköping can make an impact in attack

With 22 goals in 15 league games (⌀ 1.47), the home side’s tally is significantly better than the table suggests. In a league-wide comparison, the hosts are even in seventh place and thus in the upper mid-table. Even AIK Stockholm, who currently have a guaranteed place in the Conference League, have only scored two more goals. In addition, Martin Falk’s team has only failed to score four times, finding the back of the net in 73% of their games. At home, however, the rate is considerably worse at only 63%. In the game against one of the weakest defenses in the league, however, the offensive power should be sufficient to score. One player in particular is in the spotlight, and that is Christoffer Nyman. The offensive player has eight goals and is the most dangerous player on the team alongside Isak Sigurgeirsson (seven scorers).

Norrköping with defensive problems

We can hardly fault Martin Falk’s team in attack, which begs the question of why the club is fighting relegation again this season. The answer is obvious: with 28 goals conceded in 15 games (⌀ 1.87), the home side are simply conceding too many goals. Only two teams, Degerfors and Halmstad, have conceded more goals. In addition, “VitaBlå” has kept a clean sheet only once, conceding at least one goal in 93% of their league games. The question of whether they will score is not an issue, but we are somewhat skeptical that they will keep a clean sheet. The head-to-head record supports our view, as Norrköping has conceded at least one goal in each of the last six meetings.

Värnamo – Statistics & current form

Värnamo has not been in Sweden’s top division for very long, having only been promoted to the top flight in 2021. Since then, Arne Sandsto’s team has been fighting for survival, with the exception of the 2023 season (5th place). Last season, the club even had to go through the relegation play-offs and only managed to stay up with a 3-2 win over Landskrona. Six months later, however, the ship is sinking again, as the visitors are bottom of the table with only seven points from 15 games. In addition, the visitors have won only one league game and have therefore been unable to compete seriously. However, their 1-0 win against Djurgarden could have changed that for good. Will the next success follow?

Värnamo lacks offensive power

With only twelve goals in 15 league games (⌀ 0.80), the visitors have the weakest offense in the Allsvenskan, along with Östers IF. In addition, Arne Sandsto’s team has failed to score in six games and has found the back of the net in only 60% of its matches. Away from home, the rate is even worse at 43%. This figure is, of course, disastrous and decisive for the team’s poor points haul so far. The lack of goal threat is also reflected in the individual statistics of the players, with Frank Junior Adjei, Ajdin Zeljkovic, Mohammad Alsalkhadi, and Johnbosco Samuel Kalu leading the scoring charts with two goals each. The club definitely has some catching up to do here and should make the most of the next transfer window to do so.

Värnamo not ready for the top flight defensively

However, it is not only the offense that is struggling, but also the defense. The visitors have conceded 25 goals in 15 games (⌀ 1.67), making them one of the weakest defenses in the Swedish first division. In fact, only four teams – Degerfors, Sirius, Norrköping and Halmstad – have conceded more goals. In addition, Arne Sandsto’s team has only kept a clean sheet twice, conceding at least one goal in 87% of their games. For us, this is also the decisive factor why the visitors will get a maximum of one point on Monday, because without a clean sheet, Värnamo is simply not capable of winning. Offensively, the team simply lacks the necessary power to compensate for this.

Norrköping – Värnamo Head-to-head record / H2H record

In the second part of our analysis, we are leaning towards a home win and agree with the betting providers’ assessment for the time being. The H2H comparison confirms our feeling, as six of the ten duels went to “VitaBlå.” The away team won only two games and thus has a win rate of only 20%. In addition, the last three encounters have all gone to the home side. It is therefore no surprise that the Norrköping vs. Värnamo betting odds favor a home win. The highest odds for a home win are currently available at Interwetten and stand at 2.25.

Norrköping – Värnamo Tip

We recommend the Norrköping vs. Värnamo betting tip for a point win for the home team in combination with over 1.5 goals in the game. In our opinion, there are several reasons for this, which we will now summarize. Not only have the hosts won the last three encounters, but they also regularly impress in attack and have their own fans behind them. In addition, the visitors have only managed to pick up a single point away from home and lack the quality required for the top flight in both defense and attack. Basically, apart from last weekend’s victory, there is nothing to suggest that the visitors will win.

Alternatively, you could also add the Norrköping vs. Värnamo odds for “Both teams to score” to your betting slip. This is primarily because both teams have major defensive problems and have rarely kept a clean sheet. In addition, both teams have scored in four of their last five competitive matches. To get the most out of this betting tip, we recommend opening an account with Bet365.

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