Will North Macedonia stay on course for the World Cup?
As an independent nation, North Macedonia has only qualified for a major tournament once so far. In 2021, the Red Lynxes made their mark at the European Championship, but lost all three group games. Nevertheless, the world number 63 is clearly on an upward trajectory.
Last year, they achieved promotion to the B Division of the UEFA Nations League with a near-perfect record of five wins and one draw. Now, they may even qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The prospects would improve even further if the tip on the home team proves correct on Monday evening between North Macedonia and Kazakhstan.
In qualifying group B, coach Blagoja Milevski’s team currently leads the five-team table sensationally ahead of Belgium and Wales. Twelve points have been earned in the six games so far, which means that the actual underdog is still undefeated in World Cup qualifying. Three wins are offset by three draws. They are one point ahead of Belgium, who in turn are one point ahead of Wales. However, with the two main rivals facing each other in a direct duel on Monday evening, there is every reason to believe that the “Red Lynxes” will be able to maintain their top position even after the October doubleheader.
Mathematically, it would be enough if the prediction for the North Macedonia vs. Kazakhstan match is a home win. I have no major doubts about this, especially since the 2021 European Championship participants, who can field their two best-known and supposedly most important players in midfield in Eljif Elmas (Napoli) and captain Enis Bardhi (Konyaspor), were able to boost their confidence last Friday. Away against the Belgian star ensemble, the North Macedonians fought their way to a 0-0 draw with luck and skill, despite conceding 25 shots on goal and an xGA value of 3.20.
My betting recommendation for Monday evening is once again based on the passionate defense of Milevski’s team. In six qualifying games, they have conceded just two goals. The Southeast Europeans have kept a clean sheet four times. Both goals were conceded against opponents from Belgium (1-1 in the first leg) and Wales, who are considered to be significantly stronger.
Apart from that, the Kazakhs don’t usually pose much of a goal threat. Friday’s 4-0 win against Liechtenstein can best be explained by the lack of quality of the opposition. Previously, however, they suffered defeats without scoring in Belgium (0-6) and at home against North Macedonia (0-1) in the first leg.
That is precisely why I would recommend betting on under goals between North Macedonia and Kazakhstan. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80 in the Betano app, which meets all the minimum requirements for redeeming the Betano bonus. On the other hand, based on recent performances, I am leaning towards the home side, who I believe are the deserved favorites. The Asian handicap -1 is still rewarded with 1.50 in the Interwetten app!
North Macedonia – Kazakhstan Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The head-to-head comparison is relatively quick to summarize. North Macedonia won the first leg in Kazakhstan 1-0 in June, once again relying on their defensive work. Combined, both teams had an xG value of just over 1.0, which underlines that both teams find it extremely difficult to break down compact defenses. Under goals are also likely in Skopje, even though the only previous (friendly) international match between the two sides in June 2021 ended in a clear 4-0 win for the “Red Lynxes” from North Macedonia.
North Macedonia – Kazakhstan Tip
In club football, Kazakhstan ranks above North Macedonia, not least because of Kairat Almaty’s participation in the Champions League. However, the picture is very different when it comes to the national teams. Here, the “Red Lynxes” are clearly the stronger side. This is evident from the standings in Group B, which is even led by North Macedonia. Twelve points from six games (three wins, three draws) and only two goals conceded testify to an outstanding qualification campaign so far. A team that has scored twice against Belgium and, looking back at the last twelve competitive games, has seven clean sheets and not a single defeat, should achieve a good result at home against Kazakhstan.
While I don’t rule out that it will be a real test of patience for the home side, which could be reflected in a risky bet (double result HTX/FT1), there is ultimately a lot to be said for the home side, who have recently excelled defensively and fought hard to get the luck they needed. The under 2.5 at 1.80 at Betano is therefore a good compromise. Alternatively, it is conceivable to combine the expected home win with under goals!
