Will Slovakia remain at the top of Germany’s group?

After two match days, the table in World Cup qualifying group A is causing consternation, especially in Germany. Slovakia leads the four-team table with a maximum haul of six points. Behind them are Northern Ireland, who, despite their 3-1 defeat to the DFB team in September, have scored one more goal than the 2014 World Cup winners.

In terms of the table, Friday evening’s match at Windsor Park in Belfast will be the top game in this group. However, placing a bet on the three-way market ahead of Northern Ireland’s match against Slovakia is proving extremely complicated.

On the one hand, because Northern Ireland’s home advantage compensates for what may be a slight disadvantage in terms of quality compared to the Slovaks, meaning that, according to betting providers with a cash-out function, the two teams are on a level playing field. On the other hand, the most popular bookmakers are expecting a very low-scoring match. For a Northern Ireland vs. Slovakia prediction of under 2.5, i.e., a game with a maximum of two goals, Merkur Bets, for example, is offering only 1.50 at the top.

However, I disagree and could well imagine that fans in the Northern Irish capital will see a lively evening of soccer. Why? Firstly, because statistics show that in five of the six international matches played by the “Green & White Army” this calendar year, both teams have scored at least one goal. Secondly, the home side have never failed to score in nine consecutive international matches since summer 2024. And thirdly, the Slovakian team that defeated Germany has recently demonstrated the ruthless self-confidence it has developed in its play.

Apart from that, both teams are currently hoping to jump on the bandwagon towards the 2026 World Cup. However, Northern Ireland in particular are under pressure after their defeat in Germany and need at least three points against their direct rivals. Otherwise, they risk falling behind in third place in the standings.

However, it is also clear that “Norn Iron” is generally much stronger at home than away. Coach Michael O’Neill’s team has not lost at home since October 2023. Five of the six international matches since then have been won, including a victory against Denmark and a remarkable draw against Switzerland.

For this reason, among others, I am refraining from betting on a good result for the visitors between Northern Ireland and Slovakia. Instead, taking the above arguments into account, I am trying to add the (too) high odds on over bets to my betting slip. In addition to both teams scoring, there is also an impressive 2.15 in the Betano app for at least one goal in both halves.

Northern Ireland – Slovakia Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The national teams have faced each other five times so far. The Slovaks have won three times. In the 2019/20 European Championship playoff final, they celebrated a 2-1 victory in Northern Ireland after extra time. In the last qualifying match for the 2010 World Cup finals to date, Slovakia also prevailed 2-0 away in Northern Ireland. None of the five direct duels mentioned above saw more than three goals scored. However, both teams are currently in better form than ever before. Qualifying for the World Cup is no longer a pipe dream, but an ambitious yet entirely realistic goal.

Northern Ireland – Slovakia Tip

There is excitement in Germany’s Group A. Slovakia’s victory over Germany means that everything is still up for grabs and anything is possible. However, Northern Ireland also wants to seize the opportunity and take another step towards the 2026 World Cup in their home game against Slovakia. A home win for the “Green & White Army” cannot be ruled out. After all, O’Neill’s team has not lost an international game on home turf for around two years. However, because the pressure is still on the home side and Slovakia has recently proven its dangerousness on many occasions, I find it too risky to bet on a home win in the three-way market between Northern Ireland and Slovakia.

Instead, I’m going with the flow of both teams and therefore predict that both Northern Ireland and Slovakia will celebrate at least one goal. The odds of 2.03 offered by Merkur Bets are, in my opinion, solid value. I choose four out of a maximum of ten units as a fictitious stake. Alternatively, you could also consider the 2.15 odds that at least one goal will be scored before and after the break. If Slovakia scores in the first half, the odds are still 1.57.