Will Alviverde get their late revenge?

It has been almost three and a half years since the two clubs met for the first time in the final of the 2021 Club World Cup. A heated match went into extra time at 1-1, before Kai Havertz scored the winning goal for the Blues in the 117th minute from a handball penalty. Now the Brazilians have a late chance for revenge. However, according to the bookmakers, the odds are in favor of another Blues victory when Palmeiras takes on Chelsea.

Two completely different approaches will clash in this match. The Alviverde play from a very compact defense, which has not conceded a goal in three of the four matches at the Club World Cup, while the Londoners, on the other hand, have always played lively up front and have already scored ten goals. However, the Blues cannot afford to be too open against the compact Brazilians, which makes the prediction for a quarter-final with few goals very interesting.

Chelsea FC already fell victim to a Brazilian representative in the group stage, namely Flamengo. The Pensioners were defeated 1-3 in that game, which ultimately cost the reigning Conference League winners the group victory. In the round of 16 against Benfica Lisbon, CFC also struggled for a long time, but then pulled away in extra time and won 4-1 in the end. However, the Blues only scored one goal in regular time in that game as well.

Palmeiras – Statistics & current form

As three-time overall winners of the Copa Libertadores and twelve-time champions of the Brazilian Série A, Palmeiras Sao Paulo were keen to make their mark at the Club World Cup, where they reached the final in 2022. Back then, the Alviverde were defeated 1-2 after extra time by their current quarter-final opponents Chelsea. Almost three and a half years later, they now have the chance for revenge.

At least the bookmakers don’t give Abel Ferreira’s team much of a chance. At LeoVegas, where new customers can pick up up to €100 with the current LeoVegas welcome bonus, the odds for Palmeiras against Chelsea are 3.95 for a Verdao (meaning “the big green”) victory. The recent 1-0 win over Botafogo ultimately came at a high price: With Gustavo Gómez and Joaquín Piiquerez, two players from the defensive back four will miss this quarter-final due to suspension.

Palmeiras impresses above all defensively

Nevertheless, Abel Ferreira should be able to field a strong team that is particularly impressive defensively as a collective. Not only did Verdao concede just eight goals in the first eleven games of the Série A, but they also had one of the most solid defenses in the Club World Cup. They conceded just two goals, both in the third group game against Inter Miami (final score: 2-2). Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in all three other games.

It is therefore interesting to bet on the Alviverde pulling the plug on the Blues’ highly decorated offense. It is quite possible that a single goal will decide this quarterfinal in the end, with bets on a draw at halftime or a 0-0 or 1-1 score after 90 minutes being particularly popular. In the final of the 2021 Club World Cup, the score was 1-1 after regular time between the two teams…

Predicted line-up for Palmeiras:
Weverton – Vanderlan, Fuchs, Micael, Giay – Martínez, Rios – Estevao, Mauricio, Allan – Roque

Chelsea – Statistics & current form

Chelsea FC were “only” allowed to start in the Conference League for the 2024/25 season, but dominated all their opponents and ultimately secured the title with a 4-1 victory over Betis Sevilla in the grand final. This makes the Londoners the first club in Europe to have won all three “new” UEFA competitions (Champions League, Europa League, Conference League) at least once.

The CFC already has the Club World Cup in the bag, but would certainly have no objection to another coup in the expanded competition. If Palmeiras beat Chelsea, the Pensioners would be in the semi-finals, where they would probably be favorites against both Fluminense and Al Hilal, before facing a European team in the final.

The quality across the board speaks for Chelsea

However, the Blues learned the hard way in the group stage that Brazilian teams are no pushovers when they suffered a 3-1 defeat to Flamengo. Most recently, the Londoners also struggled in the round of 16 against Bayern Munich’s conquerors Benfica Lisbon. After a 1-1 draw at the end of regular time, the Pensioners had more in the tank in extra time and even beat the Portuguese 4-1, which is also down to the quality across the squad, as coach Enzo Maresca can usually make changes without any loss of quality.

This means that CFC has already scored ten goals in the Club World Cup, a tally they will be looking to build on in the quarterfinals. Despite the Blues’ occasional goal-scoring threat once they get into a frenzy, it should not be forgotten that Chelsea has scored more than one goal in regular time in only three of their last nine competitive games. That doesn’t exactly bode well for a clear-cut victory against the Brazilians.

Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Sánchez – Cucurella, Badiashile, Colwill, James – Caicedo, Lavia – Palmer, Fernández, Neto – Delap

Palmeiras – Chelsea Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 0 – 1

Three years ago, the two teams met in the FIFA Club World Cup. Under the old format, the two sides faced each other in the final, which ended in a 1–1 draw and went into extra time. Chelsea FC ultimately prevailed 2–1 just before the penalty shootout.

Palmeiras – Chelsea Tip

Although the betting odds from the top bookmakers favor Chelsea against Palmeiras, this game will certainly not be a walk in the park for the Blues, who now face one of the best defenses in the competition. The Alviverde have kept a clean sheet in three of their four Club World Cup games and definitely have what it takes to shut down the Pensioners’ explosive offense. Moreover, CFC cannot afford to be too offensive, having already fallen into a trap against Flamengo in the group stage and suffered a 1-3 defeat against a Brazilian representative.

The Blues will have learned their lessons from that preliminary round game and will not underestimate the Alviverde. There is therefore a lot to suggest that it will be a tactical game, which could be very tough, especially in the first half. Accordingly, the prediction for Palmeiras against Chelsea is for a quarter-final that is not too action-packed or high-scoring.