Will the Cypriot underdog upset another big name?
The two protagonists of this early Tuesday game are tied on points in 19th and 20th place in the current Champions League group stage table. While the Monégasques may have expected a little more than five out of a possible twelve points, it is a real coup for the underdogs from Cyprus. The Blue and Whites recently defeated Villarreal CF 1-0 and have kept a clean sheet in three of their four games, which is a key factor in our prediction for Paphos vs. Monaco.
Finally, it is striking that both opponents have already earned more points than they have scored goals. Monaco have only scored four goals. The Cypriots have scored just two. We therefore do not expect a goal fest at Limassol Stadium, where the hosts have to play due to UEFA regulations. In this context, it is very interesting to note that the forecast for Pafos vs. Monaco is that the visitors from the principality will score a maximum of one away goal.
Considering that Pafos FC is on course for the playoffs because they have avoided conceding a goal in three of four games, it is unlikely that Monaco, who have the worst conversion rate of all 36 teams in the Champions League (only ten percent), will score a barrage of goals in Cyprus.
Therefore, betting on a +2 handicap for the Blue and Whites also makes sense, as it covers any points won by the underdogs as well as an ASM away win by just one goal.
Pafos vs. Monaco Prediction AI
While we may be reluctant to bet on an away win for Monaco from a human perspective, the supercomputer has no doubts, as the AI prediction with the highest value for Pafos vs. Monaco is indeed bet 2. The Interwetten app lists odds of 1.63 for this, implying a probability of 61.3 percent. AI, on the other hand, calculates that the Rouge et Blanc have a 66.6 percent chance of winning in Cyprus. This is significantly higher and makes for a very positive expected value.
Pafos – Statistics & current form
Pafos FC, which won the national championship in Cyprus for the first time in its young club history this summer and once again leads the national table after eleven league games with a two-point lead over Omonia, will face AS Monaco for the first time in a European competitive match. Overall, this is only the third meeting between teams from Cyprus and France in the UEFA Champions League.
The Blue and Whites have little reason to be in awe. Juan Carlos Carcedo’s team has already kept three clean sheets in this season’s Champions League. Another would equal the Cypriot record for a season in UEFA competitions (APOEL Nicosia kept four clean sheets in the 2016/17 Europa League).
Will Paphos keep a clean sheet against Monaco too?
The experience that the club, which was only founded in 2014, lacks is excellently compensated for by the experience of its players. The Cypriots’ starting eleven is on average 30 years and 34 days old. Pafos is the only one of the 36 teams in the Champions League group stage to exceed the average age of 30 after four matchdays. This fits in perfectly with their style of play, which is geared towards disrupting the opponent’s game.
Pafos, on the other hand, relies most often on long passes (21 percent), but only manages 9.4 percent of line-breaking passes (35th out of 36). At the back, Derrick Luckassen clears the ball exceptionally well: the 30-year-old has made the most clearances (52) and the most headers (31) in the league. As a team, the defensive artists from Cyprus also lead both categories (166 clearances, 75 headers).
Monaco – Statistics & current form
AS Monaco has gone from strength to strength in the current Champions League league phase. After suffering a surprisingly heavy 4-1 defeat to Club Brugge on the first matchday, the Rouge et Blanc first drew 2-2 with Manchester City and then held reigning Europa League winners Tottenham to a 0-0 draw. Nevertheless, those three games extended Monaco’s winless streak in the Champions League to six games.
However, that streak came to an end on matchday four with a 1-0 win over Bodö/Glimt. The last time they had two consecutive wins in the Champions League was in November 2024. The last time they had two clean sheet wins in a row was in December 2014 (1-0 against Leverkusen, 2-0 against Zenit). On paper, however, the tip for Pafos against Monaco is that an away win in Cyprus is likely.
Monaco with miserable conversion rate
Nevertheless, it must be noted that Sébastien Pocognoli’s team is in very poor form. ASM has lost its last three Ligue 1 games, dropping to eighth place after a strong start to the season. Internationally, Monaco has the highest rate of line-breaking passes in this CL season (15.3 percent), but has already missed nine big chances.
The fact that only one in ten big chances has been converted means that ASM has a big chance conversion rate of just 10 percent – the lowest of all 36 teams in the competition. Folarin Balogun missed four and Maghnes Akliouche missed two. Since the start of last season, Akliouche has nevertheless led the club in direct goal contributions in the Champions League (five; two goals, three assists) and also delivers top values in successful dribbles (22) and chances created (20). For the 23-year-old, the away game in Cyprus could therefore well be the turning point.
Pafos – Monaco Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0
There has never been an international competitive match between the two clubs before, so this is a first for both sides. The Cypriots have never played against a Ligue 1 representative and vice versa. There is therefore no head-to-head data available that could influence our prediction for Pafos vs. Monaco.
Pafos – Monaco Tip
While the AI prediction clearly points to an away win for the favored team from the principality, we see things a little differently. Of course, we don’t want to shake the visitors’ clear role as favorites. However, it is striking that ASM has only scored four goals in four games, failing to convert nine out of ten big chances in the Champions League group stage. To make matters worse, the Cypriot underdogs have kept a clean sheet in three of their four Champions League games.
If the hosts park the bus in their own penalty area again at Limassol Stadium, the Monégasques, who are weak in front of goal, will first have to prove that they have enough creativity, patience, and ease to break down the Cypriot defensive bulwark. While we do not rule out an away win, we do not believe that the Rouge et Blanc will score more than one away goal.
For under 1.5 goals by the visitors, the betting odds for Pafos vs. Monaco are 2.37 at Bet365. We are investing three out of ten units in this tip, which of course also carries a certain risk.
