Have the Gigliati finally broken their duck?
After ACF Fiorentina remained completely winless in the first 15 matchdays of Serie A 2025/26 (six draws, nine defeats), the Gigliati (English: the Lilies) recorded a resounding 5-1 home win over Udinese Calcio on Sunday. This finally ended a remarkable dry spell, which, however, is not worth much if it is not confirmed.
Even if Parma vs. Fiorentina ends in another victory for the Viola, the flagship club from Tuscany would still finish 2025 in a direct relegation spot. Should the second three points fail to materialize, the Conference League participant would even be guaranteed to remain at the bottom of the table.
In principle, Parma Calcio is a pleasant opponent to follow up on the 5-1 victory against Udinese. The Gialloblu won only one of their eight Serie A home games in 2025/26 (three draws, four defeats) and scored only six goals at home. However, the last five meetings between the two clubs have all ended in draws. However, considering that the Emiliani are plagued by massive injury concerns, we still think it’s likely that the Gigliati will confirm their first win and also score three points at the Stadio Ennio Tardini. Accordingly, we see a lot of value in our Parma vs. Fiorentina prediction in tip 2.
Those who would like to avoid the admittedly not insignificant risk can alternatively choose to bet on a match with not too many goals. After all, the Gialloblu’s six home goals are only matched by Fiorentina’s five away goals, who have remained completely winless in eight away games in 2025/26 (four draws, four defeats).
Parma – Fiorentina Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 19 – 27 – 24
A total of 70 matches have been played between the two clubs so far, with ACF Fiorentina leading the head-to-head record with 24 wins. The Viola are currently unbeaten in seven competitive games against Parma Calcio (one win, six draws), although the last five encounters have all ended in draws. In fact, 38.6 percent of all meetings between the two clubs have ended in a draw, which is a remarkably high percentage.
Parma – Fiorentina Tip
Looking at the history, it seems risky to predict an away win for the Viola against Parma and ignore the high probability of a draw. Nevertheless, there are three good reasons to back the Tuscan side right now.
Firstly, the Gialloblu are weak at home and not in particularly good form. Secondly, Parma have been hit by a veritable injury crisis, particularly in defense, and, in addition to regular goalkeeper Suzuki, will be without three of the four players in their back four: Circati, Ndiaye, and Delprato. And thirdly, the Gigliati forced the long-awaited breakthrough in their recent 5-1 win over Udinese and are traveling to Emilia-Romagna with renewed confidence.
Against this backdrop, we estimate that the visitors have a roughly 50 percent chance of following up with a second consecutive victory at the Stadio Ennio Tardini. Because the betting odds for Parma vs. Fiorentina are 2.30 for tip 2, this creates a positive expected value, so we are sticking with the three-way system without further ado.
