Will the Partenopei defend their lead in the table?
Everything was set for SSC Napoli to win their fourth Scudetto in club history this summer. They won four games in a row without conceding a goal, giving them a three-point lead over Inter Milan. The remaining fixtures against Genoa, Parma, and Cagliari looked easy enough. But then the Azzurri stumbled in their first home game against the Ligurians (2-2). If the tip for an away win for the Partenopei against Parma does not come in, the lead in the table could return to Lombardy.
Antonio Conte’s team is under corresponding pressure in its last away game of the 2024/25 season. Parma Calcio is not in great form, winning only one of its last ten league games. However, with six draws in that period (and three defeats), the Gialloblu have not always been easy to beat. For example, when predicting Parma vs. Napoli, it must be taken into account that the Emiliani already entered the title race at home in early April when they held Inter Milan to a 2-2 draw.
Nevertheless, there is a lot to be said for an away win for the Partenopei, who not only won ten of their 18 Serie A away games in 2024/25 (six draws, two defeats) and conceded just 14 goals on the road, but also won their last three competitive games against Parma Calcio. Ultimately, we are going with the favorites and betting on SSC Napoli at odds of 1.52 on Winamax.
Parma – Statistics & current form
Parma Calcio 1913 returned to the country’s top flight last summer as Serie B champions. The club, which once excelled in UEFA competitions in the 1990s, now naturally wants to re-establish itself in the upper echelons of Italian football, for which it must first secure its place in the league. The Gialloblu go into the penultimate matchday with a comfortable four-point lead over the first relegation spot.
A home win against Napoli would mean that pursuers Venezia, Lecce, and Empoli would no longer be able to overtake the Emilian side. So there is a lot at stake for the team now coached by Cristian Chivu, who are, however, going into the game as underdogs. Betano is offering odds of 6.50 for a home win for the Gialloblu in Parma against Napoli.
First two defeats in a row under Chivu
The problem is that a phase in which the Emiliani lost only one of eight consecutive Serie A games (one win, six draws) was followed by two defeats in a row. With Como (0-1) and Empoli (1-2), they weren’t even playing against heavyweights. This made the defeat in Tuscany all the more disappointing, as it could have sealed their survival in the league.
The away game in Empoli was also doubly problematic because center back Lautaro Valenti was shown a yellow card and will now miss the home game against Partenopei. Combined with the absences of Alessandro Vogliacco and Yordan Osorio, this means that three center backs are now unavailable. This is not good news for the club, which has the fourth-worst defense in Serie A with 56 goals conceded.
Napoli – Statistics & current form
SSC Napoli finished 19 of the 36 matchdays so far in first place in the table and would have thoroughly deserved their fourth Scudetto. Between matchdays 23 and 27, the Partenopei went five league games without a win (four draws, one defeat), paying the price for the absence of Khvichta Kvaratskhelia, who had recently transferred to Paris.
However, because they did not lose any of their next nine league games (six wins, three draws), and Inter Milan also slipped up during their strong run in the Champions League, the Azzurri are now back in front. But the recent 2-2 draw with Genoa CFC has reduced their lead over the Nerazzurri to one point. If Parma fail to win away against Napoli at the Stadio Ennio Tardini, it could cost the southern Italians their lead at the top of the table.
Napoli still hold all the trump cards
However, several factors speak in favor of Antonio Conte’s team, above all their defensive stability. With just 27 goals conceded in 36 league games, the Neapolitans have by far the best defense in Serie A. Away from home, they have conceded only 14 goals in 18 games, losing just two (ten wins, six draws), which is the best record in the league.
Three important players are out with Alessandro Buongiorno, Juan Jesus, and Stanislav Lobotka. However, there are high-quality alternatives available in all three positions, so even after the Partenopei’s ten-game unbeaten run in Serie A, we would say that the southern Italians, who have home advantage against Cagliari Calcio on the final day, can only beat themselves on their way to their fourth Scudetto…
Parma – Napoli Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 16 – 10 – 23
A total of 49 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with SSC Napoli leading the head-to-head record with 23 wins. The Partenopei have also won the last three Serie A matches against Parma Calcio, beating the Emiliani 2-1 in the first leg.
Parma – Napoli Tip
All in all, our prediction for Parma vs. Napoli is an away win for the Azzurri, who have won their last three Serie A matches against the Emiliani. The Partenopei are also unbeaten in ten league games and have won four of their last five Serie A matches without conceding a goal. Nevertheless, we should not forget that the Gialloblu have managed to hold on for a draw in six of their last ten Serie A games, including against renowned opponents such as Inter Milan (2-2), Fiorentina (0-0) and Lazio Rome (2-2).
Nevertheless, the Emiliani have lost their last two league games against Como and Empoli in a row and are therefore in much weaker form going into this home game, in which none other than the league leaders are coming to the Stadio Ennio Tardini. Anything other than an away win for the Partenopei would be a surprise.