Will Porto remain unbeaten at home in the quarterfinals?

For the first time since 2020/21, FC Porto has reached the quarterfinals of a European competition again. Overall, this marks the Portuguese side’s 18th quarterfinal appearance; as is well known, they even managed to sensationally win the Champions League in 2004 under José Mourinho. However, the Blue and Whites have recently failed to advance past the quarterfinals four times in a row at the international level. The longing for their first European semifinal since 2010/11 is immense. But the visitors from the island feel the same way; they’ve been waiting over 40 years to reach a UEFA semifinal. Ahead of the first leg, however, I’m leaning toward betting on the “Dragões” over Nottingham.

The strongest argument comes from the home form of Coach Francesco Farioli’s team, which managed to bring the highly-rated Stuttgart side to its knees with considerable confidence over two legs in the round of 16. Along with Aston Villa and Freiburg, who are also still in the competition, FC Porto is one of only three teams with a 100% win rate in front of their own fans.

They won all five home games played during the group stage as well as in the aforementioned round of 16. In total, the current league leaders in Portugal have conceded just three goals in those matches. A fun fact on the side: The “Azuis e brancos” have won six home games in a single European season only once before—in 2010/11 on their way to winning the Europa League title!

Nevertheless, it must be noted that Nottingham Forest, a Premier League opponent, awaits—a team that can draw on plenty of individual quality and has also improved its results recently. Across all competitions, the “Tricky Trees” have lost only one of their last five competitive matches.

However, because last weekend in England was dominated by the FA Cup, Pereira’s side will play their first match since March 22—i.e., before the international break—on Thursday evening. In the Premier League, the “Garibaldi Reds” are also deeply mired in the relegation battle. Their lead over the first relegation spot is a mere three points.

For this reason, among others, the odds for an away win in the Porto vs. Nottingham match play no role at all in my considerations. Instead, it might be worth betting on under goals. On the one hand, because the English side has failed to score in six matches since early February. On the other hand, given that the opponents are evenly matched and will likely start by cautiously feeling each other out, especially in the early stages.

Porto – Nottingham Head-to-Head Record

These two clubs already crossed paths back in late October. In the league, Nottingham won 2-0 at home. At that time, however, Sean Dyche was still on the sidelines for the “Tricky Trees.” While the English side’s home victory was ultimately deserved, it must be noted that Igor Jesus and Co. needed two penalty kicks to get the ball over the opponent’s goal line.

However, Forest lost their other Europa League match this season against a Portuguese team 0-1 in Braga in January.

Porto – Nottingham Prediction

For the past nine competitive matches, Vitor Pereira has been in charge at Nottingham Forest, becoming the fourth manager this season. Although the Portuguese coach recently led the “Garibaldi Reds” to an important away win against an underperforming Spurs (3-0) and managed to reach the quarterfinals despite a first-leg loss in the Europa League round of 16 against Midtjylland, his overall record is negative (3-2-4). It is also clear that the focus in the coming weeks will be on the relegation battle in the Premier League. It therefore remains to be seen how the English side will approach the away match in Porto. By the way: This is the first time in his long coaching career that Vitor Pereira will face the Dragons!

FC Porto has had a fantastic season so far, leading the domestic league and winning all five of their home games in the Europa League to date. It’s therefore obvious that the Blue-Whites are the favorites heading into Thursday’s match. Nevertheless, I believe it will be a closely contested match, which is why I’m going with the Porto vs. Nottingham tip: Under 2.5.