Will the Dragons Cross the Line?
The emotions from the first leg are fully factored into the Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction. The Dragons pushed their opponents to the limit and left the MHP Arena Stuttgart with a 2-1 away win. Based on expected goals, the victory was deserved from the Portuguese side’s perspective (1.73:0.78 xG).
Even without these challenging conditions, it would have been difficult for the Swabians to leave the Estadio do Dragao with a win. Now, the Bundesliga side is trailing in our Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction. Even the German bookmakers see Sebastian Hoeneß’s team as slight underdogs.
The home team’s stadium usually offers a unique atmosphere—things can get quite heated. These conditions suit Francisco Fariolo’s team quite well. Porto has not lost a single home game this season, neither in the Portuguese league nor in the Europa League.
However, our focus is more on the number of goals. So far, the Dragons have won all four of their Europa League home games this season. Fariolo’s squad scored at least two goals against Red Star Belgrade (2-1), Nice (3-0), Malmö (2-1), and Glasgow Rangers (3-1).
Furthermore, Stuttgart has often struggled on the road, losing three of four EL matches. Our recommendation is a Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart odds of 2.15 at Betano for “Porto Over 1.5 Goals.”
Porto – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-Head Record
Together, both teams took 28 shots in the first leg. The second clash between the two opponents could be just as fast-paced. On average, the Dragons have scored 1.67 goals per game in this Europa League season.
A figure that aligns quite closely with the expected goals per game (1.63 xG/game) and underscores the offensive qualities of Farioli’s team. Of course, the Bundesliga side also boasts top-class footballing talent in attack. VfB has scored nearly two expected goals per Europa League match (1.96), giving them the third-best figure in the current competition.
Porto – VfB Stuttgart Prediction
Hardly any team truly enjoys playing at the Dragons’ stadium. At home, the league leaders from Portugal’s top division are incredibly consistent. However, the hosts have finished only two of nine matches this Europa League season without conceding a goal.
They conceded more than one goal only in the match against Nottingham Forest (0-2). Thus, VfB faces a major challenge. On average, Porto has conceded just 0.89 goals per Europa League match. Again, this figure aligns quite closely with the expected goals against (0.85 xGA/match – 3rd among all Europa League teams).
As the game progresses, the Swabians will have to take more risks in attack—which offers the home side real opportunities for their dangerous counterattacks. It’s no coincidence that both of Porto’s goals in the first leg came after quick counterattacks and winning the ball in the opponent’s half.
