Will the Rouge-et-Bleu finish the job at home?

Paris Saint-Germain remained unbeaten against Arsenal FC in five attempts, but were defeated 2-0 by the Gunners in the league phase of the current season. However, in last week’s crucial away game on the Thames, the Rouge-et-Bleu managed to secure an important 1-0 away win. If PSG fail to beat Arsenal on the Seine, the Londoners will win and the Parisians will be in the Champions League final for the first time since 2020.

Basically, the prediction for PSG against Arsenal is that the Rouge-et-Bleu will make it to the final, and they have a good chance of doing so, as Luis Enrique’s team now only needs to avoid a home defeat. The only two home games against the Gunners ended in a 1-1 draw – a result that would now be enough for the Parisians to finish the job they started last week.

Both teams, who have nothing left to play for in their respective leagues, put their sights on reaching the Champions League final at the weekend and rotated their squads heavily. The result was two lost dress rehearsals. The Rouge-et-Bleu lost 2-1 to Racing Strasbourg, while the Gunners lost their home game against Bournemouth by the same score. The first teams are correspondingly fresh and will now battle it out for a place in the final on Wednesday evening.

PSG vs. Arsenal prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSiE does not really believe that the Gunners will fight back, but considers the odds in the three-way system too good to find a value tip here. In the Londoners’ away win, the AI, which gives Arsenal a 25.9 percent chance of winning away, finds a clearly negative expected value. However, with expected goal values of 1.43 (PSG) to 0.98 (Arsenal), BETSiE rates the chance of both teams scoring at least one goal as very realistic. This tip can be placed via the handy NEO.bet app at odds of 1.58. In the three-way system, the AI prediction for PSG against Arsenal also tends towards a draw, with 1-1 as the most likely result.

PSG – Statistics & current form

Paris Saint-Germain won the first leg in London 1-0, celebrating their first ever victory against Arsenal in six attempts. The two previous home games against the Gunners ended 1-1, meaning PSG are still waiting for a home win against the English side. However, the French side have lost all three of their previous Champions League semi-finals at the Parc des Princes, including the last two seasons against Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City.

Overall, PSG have won only four of their last seven knockout home games in the Champions League (two draws, one defeat) and have already lost two home games in the competition this season, against Liverpool and Atlético Madrid. The last time they suffered three home defeats in a single season was in 2020/21. On the other hand, the Rouge-et-Bleu have won eight of their last ten games in the current competition (two defeats) after winning only one of their first five games (one draw, three defeats).

Suddenly, PSG are the top favorites in the Champions League

With 150 line-breaking passes, PSG ranks second in this category in 2024/25 behind FC Bayern (156), with Ousmane Dembélé providing 25 of those – a joint-high. Dembélé scored the decisive 1-0 goal in the first leg and has eight goals in this Champions League season – only Zlatan Ibrahimović has scored more for the team from the Seine in a single season (ten goals in 2013/14). Anyone who thinks another goal from the Frenchman is realistic can get odds of 2.45 for PSG against Arsenal at Bwin.

João Neves, meanwhile, set the best record for a midfielder since Arturo Vidal in 2014/15 with 51 successful tackles. He also has over 700 pressures in the final third – more than any other player in 2024/25. Thanks to this individual class and the fact that key players were rested at the weekend, Opta gives the Rouge-et-Bleu a 78% chance of reaching the final after their away win in the first leg.

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

According to Opta, Arsenal FC only has a 22 percent chance of advancing after losing the first leg – and the statistics do not favor a comeback either. No English team has ever reached the UEFA Champions League final after losing the first leg of a semi-final at home. In eleven cases where Arsenal lost the first leg, they only advanced twice – both times against FC Porto in the round of 16 in 2010 and 2024. However, when the first leg was lost at home, the Gunners were always eliminated (four times in total).

The Londoners have won their last four Champions League away games in a row. They have never won five in a row before. Against French teams, they have lost only one of their nine away games in the Champions League (six wins, two draws), but their last game in France was lost to Lens (1-2 after leading 1-0). Overall, Arsenal have gone winless in their last seven semi-final games in all competitions (two draws, five defeats).

Arsenal must overcome their semi-final jinx

To make sure the away goal works out, set-piece specialist Declan Rice could be back in the spotlight. But his qualities are also needed in open play, as he played the most line-breaking passes in the final third (six) in the first leg and leads Arsenal in passes leading to shots (seven) and goals (three). Nevertheless, the bookmakers do not believe that it will be enough for an away win on the Seine. At Betano, the odds for PSG against Arsenal are 3.55 for a tip on the home side.

This is also due to the Gunners’ strange lack of firepower in the semifinals. Since a 2-0 win over Manchester City in the 2020 FA Cup semifinals, Mikel Arteta’s men have gone seven consecutive semifinal games without a win and have failed to score away from home in six consecutive games. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the North Londoners failed to score in the round of 16 and quarter-finals away from home. They won 7-1 at PSV Eindhoven and 2-1 at Real Madrid.

PSG – Arsenal Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 1 – 3 – 2

The two teams have met six times in total, with Arsenal FC leading the head-to-head record with two wins. The Gunners already recorded a 2-0 home win against the Rouge-et-Bleu in the league phase, but then suffered their first defeat in the first leg last week. The two previous encounters on the Seine ended in 1-1 draws, which would now be enough for Paris Saint-Germain to reach the final.

PSG – Arsenal Tip

All in all, our prediction for PSG against Arsenal is that the Rouge-et-Bleu will reach the final, although they are likely to face another tough 90 minutes to finish the job they started last week. Thanks to set-piece specialist Declan Rice, the Londoners are capable of scoring out of nowhere, even in static phases. However, given the starting position, the Gunners will probably play very lively up front anyway, which means that a heated battle at the Parc des Princes seems inevitable.

To cover most eventualities, we recommend the combined tip on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals. The odds for PSG against Arsenal are 1.60, which we are betting on with six out of ten units at Betano.