Will the Rouge-et-Bleu end their dry spell against FCB?

In 2020, Paris Saint-Germain lost 1-0 to FC Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League final. Five years later, however, they achieved their first ever triumph. This summer, Luis Enrique’s star-studded ensemble brought the trophy to the Seine for the first time. Across the season, they have currently won six Champions League games in a row. But now the Rouge-et-Bleu’s new nemesis is coming to the city of love, which certainly influences our tip for PSG vs. Bayern.

The Parisians have lost their last four Champions League games against the German record champions without scoring a single goal. However, they did get a small measure of revenge at this year’s Club World Cup, when the capital city club beat FCB 2-0 in the quarterfinals. Since then, however, the Reds have won every single competitive game, which is why a prediction of a home win for the Rouge-et-Bleu in PSG vs. Bayern would be extremely risky.

In our opinion, the tip for a much higher-scoring match than the last duels between the two teams was is correct. In none of the last five meetings between the two teams have there been goals on both sides, and not once have more than two goals been scored. Now, however, the two goal-scoring machines of the Champions League are set to clash. PSG has the best offense in the Champions League group stage with 13 goals from its first three games. The Reds have also won all three of their games so far, scoring at least three goals in each.

PSG vs. Bayern Prediction AI

The AI prediction for PSG vs. Bayern is quite clear, pointing to a home win for the Rouge-et-Bleu. Bet365 offers odds of 2.50 for tip 1, which implies a 40 percent probability of occurrence. AI, on the other hand, gives the Parisians a 50.4 percent chance of winning, resulting in a positive expected value.

PSG – Statistics & current form

Paris Saint-Germain has lost its last four Champions League matches against FC Bayern. This is the longest losing streak in the club’s history against an opponent in this competition. What makes it particularly bitter is that PSG failed to score in these four games, despite 40 attempts and 14 shots on target. Nevertheless, the odds from the best bookmakers are now leaning towards the Rouge-et-Bleu in PSG’s match against Bayern, which is related to Enrique’s team’s current Champions League form.

The capital club has won its last six Champions League games in a row. That is a club record (as in 1994/95). However, one pattern keeps recurring: Paris has never won its fourth group game in the last four seasons (two draws, two defeats). Offensively, their early form in 2025/26 is impressive: 13 goals after three games, more than any other team – the record for the first four games is 17 (PSG 2017/18, Bayern 2021/22, Napoli 2022/23).

Can PSG be beaten with pressing?

Individually, former Dortmund player Achraf Hakimi is making his mark: in his last five Champions League appearances, he has been directly involved in a goal (two goals, three assists). That is a record for a defender in this competition. The FCB will therefore have to keep a close eye on him in particular.

Pressing could, of course, be an effective tactic, although the defending champions’ passing game is very resilient to pressure from their opponents. Vitinha, in particular, achieved a pass completion rate of 92.4 percent (134 out of 145) under high pressure and leads the rankings for successful passes played under pressure. Against Bayern, the task will be to convert their recent offensive momentum into quality chances against a formidable opponent – and to break the goal drought of the last four direct encounters without losing their balance in transition.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern Munich got off to a sensational start, beating Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 on Saturday, even though Vincent Kompany rested three key players in Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Luis Díaz. We therefore consider the AI’s tip for a home win for the Rouge-et-Bleu against PSG to be risky.

In Paris, FCB ultimately won their last two Champions League away games 1-0 each. Another win would make the Reds the first team to win three away games in a row at the Parc des Princes. However, the context also comes with a warning: it is Munich’s first duel with the reigning champions since the 2-2 draw with Real Madrid in May 2018. Bayern are winless in five games against the current champions (one draw, four defeats) and have conceded at least two goals in each of those games (13 in total).

Will Kane strike for Bayern on the Seine?

Nevertheless, momentum is on the side of the German record champions, who have won every single competitive game of the 2025/26 season and could celebrate four consecutive Champions League victories if they continue this streak. They last achieved this at the start of the 2023/24 season. Bayern last scored three or more goals in four consecutive CL games in the fall of 2021.

Once again, it will come down to Harry Kane, who has scored in his last four Champions League games (six goals) and could score five times in a row in this competition for the first time. Only Arjen Robben and Robert Lewandowski have achieved this for FCB so far. Tactically, the focus will be on efficiency in front of goal and stability against the high tempo of the Rouge-et-Bleu. If they can confirm their recent away form at the Parc des Princes and keep up the pressure, the next step towards conquering the top of the table in the Champions League is within reach.

PSG – Bayern Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 7 – 0 – 8

A total of 15 international competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, and there has never been a draw in this fixture. The overall record is very even. Munich have won eight games, while Paris have won seven. PSG last beat Bayern 2–0 in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Club World Cup, which was the Reds’ last competitive defeat to date. However, in the Champions League, the German record champions have beaten the team from the Seine four times in a row without conceding a goal.

PSG – Bayern Tip

Overall, it is anything but easy to predict the outcome of the match between PSG and Bayern. After all, the current leaders of the Champions League table are hosting the current second-placed team. Both teams rested their regulars over the weekend, but still managed to win their games – Munich even more impressively with a 3-0 win over Leverkusen without Kane, Olise, and Díaz. A rested Kane in particular could therefore once again be decisive on the Seine.

Although defensive qualities will undoubtedly be decisive in this duel, we expect an open exchange of blows between two of Europe’s top goal-scoring teams. In our opinion, the tip that at least four goals will be scored at the Parc des Princes is therefore very popular.