Will Bayern knock out the Champions League winners?
The sometimes lengthy and tough preliminary rounds of this Club World Cup will finally come to an end with the final whistle of the last round of 16. The wheat has been separated from the chaff, so the matchups in the quarter-finals feature big names, plenty of quality and, at best, spectacular entertainment. A European duel will take place on Saturday evening at 6 p.m. in the air-conditioned Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. In a rematch of the 2020 Champions League final, the French and German national champions will face each other.
Before the start of the season, it would have been almost unthinkable that the bookmakers would give PSG a higher probability of success than Bayern Munich in the duel between the two teams. However, the tide has turned since the Red and Blues, led by Luis Enrique, lifted the trophy at the end of May after a remarkable knockout phase in the Champions League. Nevertheless, it is of course the FCB’s ambition to bring the best club team in Europe to its knees and move one step closer to the international throne.
However, looking at their performances in this Club World Cup so far, it is also understandable that the triple winners from the city of love are considered to have the slightly better prospects this weekend. This theory is also reflected in the PSG vs. Bayern odds on the three-way market. The odds for a Paris victory are 2.27, while the odds for an FCB triumph are 3.15.
PSG – Statistics & current form
Looking at the betting odds for the 2025 Club World Cup ahead of the quarter-finals, including PSG vs. Bayern, Paris Saint Germain remains the hottest contender for the trophy, which will be awarded for the first time. However, betting on them comes with a risk, as if they win against Bayern on Saturday evening, they would then face the winner of the Real Madrid vs. Dortmund match in a potential semi-final. A difficult, rocky, and long road still lies ahead for coach Luis Enrique’s team, but as the season has progressed, they have developed the ability to make difficult things look easy.
Their biggest asset is and remains their outstanding attacking pressing, which is unmatched anywhere in the world. The newly crowned Champions League winners are capable of stifling any opponent in their own half. If their opponents are unable to bypass the first line of pressing with long balls and quick one-two passes, they are unable to relieve the pressure and PSG’s powerful offense literally crushes them.
Will PSG’s defense finally be properly challenged again?
Atletico Madrid and Inter Miami also found themselves completely out of their depth in the current Club World Cup. The triple winners won both games 4-0. They beat Seattle Sounders 2-0, while the 1-0 defeat to Brazilian side Botafogo can safely be considered a slip-up. Not only did Paris remain completely clean sheet in five of their last six competitive games, but they also ensured – primarily through their highly praised pressing – that none of PSG’s last eight (!) opponents were able to achieve an xG value above 1.00.
For the sake of completeness, however, it should be mentioned that no other team in the aforementioned period had the same offensive quality as Bayern Munich. I can therefore well imagine that the French will play with their usual dominance, confidence, and determination, but will nevertheless allow more defensively. That is precisely why I recommend betting on at least one goal being scored in both halves between PSG and Bayern. The top odds for this are 1.55 in the Betano app.
I have Désiré Doué on my radar as a potential goalscorer for what I hope will be a high-quality quarter-final. On the one hand, because the young Frenchman has already proven with his brace in the Champions League final that he is fully focused in important games. On the other hand, because he comes in from the right side of the attack and Munich have looked vulnerable on the left throughout the tournament. The 3.75 odds offered by Bet365 on a goal from Doué represent attractive value and may therefore also attract new customers, who can benefit from the Bet365 bonus of up to €100 as well as the Bet365 Substitution + promotion.
Predicted PSG line-up:
Donnarumma – Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes – Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves – Barcola, Doue, Kvaratskhelia
Bayern – Statistics & current form
As expected, FC Bayern has reached the quarterfinals of the Club World Cup in the USA. However, the German record champions have not yet been able to convince or even shine in this tournament. First, they carelessly threw away the group victory with a 0-1 defeat against Benfica Lisbon. They then struggled to a 4-2 victory over Flamengo in the round of 16. The Munich team is currently a long way from its best form.
High-level complaining or is Bayern even overrated?
The biggest area for improvement for the men from Säbener Straße remains their defense. Only against the underdogs from Auckland did Manuel Neuer, who is in good form, keep a clean sheet. Overall, Bayern have already conceded four goals, three more than their upcoming opponents from the French capital. The left side of the back four looks particularly vulnerable in the absence of the injured Alphonso Davies, although Stanisic did a better job defensively than the more offensively minded Guerreiro.
Looking ahead to the Club World Cup quarter-final against Paris, I also see the central midfield as a problem. Apart from Joshua Kimmich, there is currently no second ball distributor who can break the French pressing with clever passes and resilience. Goretzka is more of a box-to-box player, Pavlovic is clearly lagging behind in form, and Palhinha continues to play only a minor role under Kompany. However, there is hope in the fact that Jamal Musiala is back to full fitness and is likely to take over Gnabry’s number 10 position in the 4-2-3-1 system.
Overall, the FCB offense has nothing to fear from any other team in this Club World Cup. They have scored 16 goals in four games. Looking back at the last eleven competitive games, they have scored 36 goals. In ten of these eleven games, Harry Kane and Co. scored at least two goals.
One special feature should also be noted, as ten of the 16 Club World Cup goals were scored before half-time. Paris Saint Germain also scored all of their goals in the first 45 minutes of their recent 4-0 win over Inter Miami. There are therefore good arguments for a PSG vs. Bayern prediction of a high-scoring first half. If more goals are scored in the first half than in the second, Interwetten is offering odds of 2.85 as the highest odds.
Bayern’s expected line-up:
Neuer – Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Stanisic – Kimmich, Goretzka – Olise, Musiala, Coman – Kane
PSG – Bayern Head-to-head record / H2H record
In 2020, the two teams faced each other in the Champions League final. Kingsley Coman scored the only goal of the game in front of an empty stadium to secure a narrow 1-0 win for Bayern. There have been five more meetings since then, with Munich coming out on top four times. Among other things, they advanced to the quarter-finals in the 2022/23 Champions League round of 16.
The most recent direct duel ended 1-0 for the German record champions in November 2024 as part of the newly introduced Champions League league phase. A bet on under 2.5 would have been correct four times in a row. This time, I expect the spectators in Atlanta to see at least three goals in regular time.
PSG – Bayern Tip
High-quality football, plenty of attacking play and probably a few goals seem almost inevitable in the clash between the two European heavyweights from Paris and Munich. At stake is a place in the semi-finals of the Club World Cup and, with it, the chance to win this club competition.
On paper, the French side have the advantage. Coach Luis Enrique’s team is the reigning triple winner, claimed the European crown in the UEFA Champions League at the end of May and has once again demonstrated its impressive qualities in this tournament in the USA with three wins, including a clean sheet.
Bayern, meanwhile, has scored the most goals of any team (16), ten of them in the first halves. Defensively, however, Kompany’s team looked quite vulnerable, which is why I’m going for over goals in Saturday evening’s match at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. In terms of odds, I like the PSG vs. Bayern tip for over 1.5 (1st half) the best. The 2.25 from Bwin is worth a bet of four units to me.
