Will PSG continue to perform consistently?
For Paris St. Germain, it must feel like déjà vu in a way. After the reigning CL champions eliminated exclusively English clubs in the Round of 16, the quarterfinals, and the semifinals on their way to winning the title last season, reaching the final again in 2025/26 would also require overcoming English opponents without exception.
Chelsea were knocked out in the round of 16, and Arsenal would be a potential opponent in the semifinals. First, however, the prediction that the French side will advance must come true in the rematch between PSG and Liverpool.
The Parisians hope to lay the groundwork for this, ideally, on Wednesday evening in front of their home crowd at the Parc des Princes. Their chances in this regard aren’t bad at all, especially since coach Luis Enrique’s team has won eight of their last ten knockout matches in Europe’s premier club competition (8-1-1) and hasn’t been eliminated in four consecutive Champions League quarterfinals. Looking at the PSG vs. Liverpool prediction, it should also work in the Red-and-Blues’ favor that the visitors from the island aren’t necessarily traveling to the City of Love in top form.
In particular, the crushing 0-4 defeat over the weekend in the FA Cup quarterfinal at Manchester City is definitely still weighing on them. After all, the Reds have often shown their better side in the Champions League this season. There’s no doubt that LFC has enough individual quality to secure a good result at Parc des Princes, but the arguments in favor of Paris outweigh them.
This is also underscored by the PSG vs. Liverpool odds, which point to the defending champions as clear favorites. Both for Wednesday night’s first leg and in terms of advancing to the semifinals.
PSG vs. Liverpool AI Prediction
Somewhat surprisingly, the PSG vs. Liverpool AI prediction points to an away win. At least when prioritizing value criteria. Although the artificial intelligence assigns the home team from the French capital a higher probability of victory and a higher xG value, the fair odds for a PSG win are significantly higher than the average offered by German bookmakers. In contrast, according to the simulation, the fair odds for an LFC away win should be 3.69. But since Bet365 is actually offering 4.50 on the 1X2 market for the underdog, the value is obvious!
PSG – Stats & Current Form
Over the weekend, Paris St. Germain took an important step toward the championship. Thanks to a 3-1 home win, the defending champions extended their lead in the Ligue 1 standings over Lens to four points. Additionally, Enrique’s side has played one fewer game.
The top-of-the-table clash against their closest rival, originally scheduled for this coming Saturday, was postponed by the league association so that the only remaining Champions League participant from the 2018 World Cup-winning nation can prepare optimally for the second leg at Anfield next Tuesday.
Will Paris St. Germain sweep past the Reds as well?
But the triple winners from last year are determined to make a statement in front of their home crowd as early as Wednesday evening. “Les Parisiens” have won six of their last seven knockout matches in the UEFA Champions League. Furthermore, they are unbeaten in their last six Champions League matches against English clubs (5-1-0). Apart from that, their current form is also very impressive. They have won all four of their most recent competitive matches across all competitions, scoring 15 goals and conceding just 3. Looking back at their last twelve matches, they have nine wins to their name!
At home, they secured a 5-2 victory in the first leg, and away at Stamford Bridge, a commanding 3-0 win. PSG’s star-studded offense has already scored 34 goals in twelve Champions League matches. In half of all their international matches alone, the French side has managed three or more goals.
With that in mind, I think it makes sense to add the 1.50 odds at Winamax for Over 2.5 goals to the betting slip for the PSG vs. Liverpool match. On the other hand, I also see Desire Doué as a potential goalscorer. Although Dembélé is getting back into form after his minor injuries and scored twice on Friday, the odds on his teammate appeal to me even more. In the absence of the injured Barcola, Doué is set to start up front.
Liverpool – Stats & Current Form
The mood at Liverpool Football Club remains tense. In the Premier League, the (still) reigning champions are clearly falling short of expectations and—as things stand—are currently in fifth place, even having to worry about qualifying for the UEFA Champions League once again. In the FA Cup, the Reds also carelessly threw away a chance at the title over the weekend, suffering a humiliating 0-4 defeat away at Manchester City. Manager Arne Slot is facing more criticism than ever, and Xabi Alonso is expected to take over as his successor. The only question is: When?
Where does Liverpool FC draw its confidence from?
In any case, the Dutchman will prepare his team for Wednesday night’s Champions League first leg. And he’ll certainly do so with a healthy dose of hope and confidence behind him. In the Champions League, the Reds have made a solid impression so far this season. Despite successfully qualifying for the round of 16 without any setbacks, LFC has had its share of inexplicable slip-ups, such as the 1-4 home loss to PSV Eindhoven or the two 0-1 defeats at Galatasaray.
After three losses in their last five competitive matches—all three, incidentally, on the road—Wirtz and Co. aren’t exactly brimming with confidence. On top of that, the team will also have to do without their regular starting goalkeeper, Alisson Becker. I’m therefore very skeptical about the English side’s chances and, ahead of the PSG vs. Liverpool clash, I’m predicting a home win in the first leg. At the same time, it would be the first time since 2019 that Liverpool have lost two consecutive away games in the Champions League.
PSG – Liverpool Head-to-Head Record
The clubs already faced off in the knockout stage of the Champions League last season. In the Round of 16, Paris St. Germain narrowly prevailed in a penalty shootout after both the home and away legs had been won 1-0 by the respective away team.
However, these results should not obscure the fact that the Parisians dominated both matches in 2025/26, had a total of 68% possession, and recorded 14 (!) more shots on goal after 200 minutes of play. Incidentally, Wednesday evening’s match will mark their seventh head-to-head encounter. Currently, the head-to-head record is completely even at three wins apiece. There has never been a draw.
PSG – Liverpool Prediction
In four of the last five Champions League seasons, the defending champion has been knocked out in the quarterfinals. PSG officials are now hoping that this fate will be spared them. In any case, I’m optimistic and see the French league leaders as clear favorites against the current fifth-place team from the Premier League. Liverpool has struggled significantly lately, losing all four of their most recent away games across all competitions. The 0-4 loss at Manchester City in the FA Cup on Saturday afternoon nearly pushed them over the edge.
Paris, on the other hand, is in solid form. Four straight wins with a 15-3 goal difference prove this just as impressively as their two dominant performances in the Champions League round of 16 against Chelsea. I therefore recommend betting on a home win for the first leg of PSG vs. Liverpool, for which you can get odds of 1.72 at Betano. My fictional stake is six units.
