Two heavyweights battle it out for a place in the final
Ahead of the two semi-final matches, a look at the betting odds for the Club World Cup shows that the match between Paris Saint Germain and Real Madrid is virtually a preview of the final. In any case, the odds suggest that the winner of this match would have a much better chance of winning the title in a potential final against Chelsea or Fluminense. Currently, the reigning Champions League winners from the city of love are even considered to have more advantages. The course of the tournament so far has also provided arguments that justify betting on the French team between PSG and Real Madrid.
The team led by coach Luis Enrique has been particularly solid in defense so far. All four wins in the preliminary round and in the two knockout games were clean sheets. However, the fact that they are still completely unbeaten in this final round, unlike their upcoming opponents, speaks in favor of the Madrid team. In conjunction with the individual quality available on the side of the Royals, it is therefore definitely a risk to predict that PSG will reach the final before the PSG vs. Real Madrid match.
All in all, we can expect an exciting and hopefully high-quality clash between two European heavyweights who nevertheless pursue different approaches. While the French define themselves through their pressing and harmonize excellently as a collective, Xabi Alonso will need a little more time to mold a team out of a star ensemble with big egos.
PSG – Statistics & current form
Paris St. Germain has impressively demonstrated why it fully deserved to be crowned European club soccer champions in the UEFA Champions League at the end of May. After a difficult league phase, in which the French side almost got knocked out and only managed to scrape through to the playoffs, there are now few voices left claiming that coach Luis Enrique’s team did not deserve to win the most important title in European club football.
As has been described several times in the course of the tournament so far, the Parisian team’s USP is undoubtedly their attacking pressing. So far, no opponent has found a lasting solution to the red and blue team’s high and, above all, intense pressing. Incidentally, this form of defense not only provokes the opponent into losing possession, but also keeps the opposing attackers away from their own goal. Need an example? Paris Saint Germain has an average of 0.57xGA (expected goals against), which no other team in this Club World Cup has even come close to beating.
PSG works as a team and is therefore rightly favored
In the quarter-finals against Bayern, Les Parisiens were once again the better and, above all, more efficient team. With a 2-0 victory, the reigning triple winners now have four wins in five tournament games. The 0-1 defeat to Botafogo in the preliminary round can safely be dismissed as a slip-up, especially as the French side won the remaining four matches without conceding a goal and were already ahead at half-time in three of the four games.
The individual cogs in the PSG system fit together perfectly. Automatic responses have been implemented and refined over months. The central midfield trio of Vitinha, Joao Neves, and Fabian Ruiz dominates at will. In the attacking trio, Kvaratskhelia, Barcola, Dembele, and Doué are always capable of making the difference. In the back four, Hakimi and Mendes provide numerical superiority going forward and almost perfect defensive cover when the ball is lost. The former mercenary team from the Seine has become an intact construct that, in my opinion, is also capable of winning the Club World Cup.
Ahead of the semi-final between PSG and Real Madrid, my prediction is that Enrique’s team will come out on top, although they will have to make some personnel changes. Regular center back Pacho saw red against Munich, as did his backup Lucas Hernandez. Lucas Beraldo will therefore defend alongside Marquinhos. In the attacking trio, Dembele, who is not yet fully fit, is currently only available as a substitute. Desiré Doué, who scored against Bayern, is a sure starter and, in my opinion, a potential goalscorer on Wednesday evening. Bet365 is offering odds of 3.75 for a Doué goal. Value is on offer, especially if you use the Bet365 promo code in July 2025 and secure yourself a bonus of up to €100.
Predicted line-up:
Donnarumma – Mendes, Beraldo, Marquinhos, Hakimi – Vitinha, Joao Neves, Fabian Ruiz – Barcola, Doué, Kvaratskhelia
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Xabi Alonso is a man of principles. The Leverkusen championship-winning coach does not shy away from putting stars in their place if they do not do what he asks of them. Discipline is an important virtue for the Spanish head coach, who has already turned many things around in his first few weeks at Real Madrid. Instead of the typical back four, a back three is currently defending. Arda Güler is playing a much bigger role than he did under Carlo Ancelotti, and Bellingham and Vinicius Jr., who are deployed on the wings, are not allowed to take a break from their defensive duties for a second.
However, the former professional has shown his knack for picking winners with the signing of unknown striker Gonzalo Garcia, who is actually only a reserve player. The 21-year-old has scored four goals and provided one assist, meaning he has been involved in at least one of his team’s goals in all five games of the tournament. The striker also scored the important 1-0 goal for his beloved club in the quarter-final against BVB. Although superstar Mbappé has long since declared himself fit, he is currently only a substitute behind Gonzalo Garcia.
Is the new Real hitting its limits for the first time?
Although Xabi Alonso has put a lot to the test (successfully) in a short period of time and, of course, made positive changes to the system and training intensity, the Royals are still far from convincing. In the round of 16 against Juventus, they struggled to a narrow 1-0 victory after a complicated first half. Against Borussia Dortmund, the Madrid side conceded two goals in stoppage time alone and almost threw away what seemed to be a certain place in the semifinals.
Alonso’s team repeatedly struggles with periods of weakness, which are exploited at the highest international level. To make matters worse for Wednesday evening’s semi-final at MetLife Stadium, the already beleaguered defense has to cope with another bitter loss. New signing Huijsen was sent off against BVB and will therefore be suspended. Raul Asencio, who has also seen red in this tournament, will slot into the starting line-up, which I believe will result in a clear disadvantage in terms of quality.
As a result, I am not averse to betting on a Paris victory after regular time between PSG and Real Madrid. On the three-way market, Interwetten is offering 2.40 on a win for Enrique’s team. Until the day of the final on July 13, 2025, you also have the opportunity to take advantage of the €11 free bet for the Club World Cup. As a new customer, you can also claim the €100 starting credit with the Interwetten deposit bonus.
Predicted line-up:
Courtois – F. Garcia, Asencio, Rüdiger, Tchouamenie, Alexander-Arnold – Güler, Valverde, Bellingham – Vini Jr., G. Garcia
PSG – Real Madrid Head-to-head record / H2H record
This is the 13th time the two teams have faced each other in their history. So far, PSG have won four, drawn three and lost five. However, the head-to-head record does not really have a relevant influence on the PSG vs. Real Madrid odds for the Club World Cup semi-final. After all, the last encounters were three years ago. At that time, Real Madrid prevailed in the Champions League round of 16 with a 3-2 aggregate score (3-1, 0-1) after the first and second legs. However, there are now different coaches with different ideas on the bench, so the omens are completely different.
PSG – Real Madrid prediction
When FIFA first started thinking about a new Club World Cup, it was certainly in the interests of those responsible that the best teams in the world face each other in direct duels. With Paris St. Germain against Real Madrid in the semi-finals, a match could hardly be bigger, more prominent, and probably also of a higher standard.
Even though the three-way odds suggest an exciting encounter, I personally see quite clear advantages for the French side. My main argument is that the triple winners and reigning Champions League holders are still in full flow. Secondly, the Parisian team works much better as a collective than the collection of stars at Real Madrid, who are still finding their feet under Xabi Alonso. Thirdly, the red and blue’s defense, including their attacking pressing, is currently the benchmark in world football.
Of course, the individual quality of the Spanish runners-up should never be underestimated, but based on the arguments above, I recommend betting on coach Luis Enrique’s team to advance between PSG and Real Madrid. At Betano, you can get 1.78 on the “To Qualify” market, which also includes a potential extra time or penalty shootout.