Another goal fest in Eindhoven?
On matchday 6 of the Champions League, PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid will face each other in the Netherlands. In terms of the table, this is a duel at the top of the table, with 15th place hosting 12th place. Goals are currently likely on both sides, even if you wouldn’t always expect that from Diego Simeone’s team. In five CL games, the Rojiblancos have scored 22 goals, while the hosts from Eindhoven have scored 21. We are therefore betting on over 3.5 goals in our PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid tip.
PSV are in very good form and have been unbeaten in four consecutive games since the first CL matchday, with two draws and two wins during that period. It is noteworthy that both teams scored in all five of the Dutch side’s CL games, with at least four goals scored in both home games.
For Atletico Madrid, a draw is unheard of. The Spaniards have won three of their five Champions League games and are one point ahead of their rivals from Eindhoven with nine points. Away games remain a problem for Atleti, resulting in two defeats so far. However, Atleti’s away games have one thing in common with the hosts’ home games – at least four goals were scored in both of them.
It is therefore hardly surprising that we are betting on the PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid odds of 2.25 for over 3.5 goals.
PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid AI prediction
According to our PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid AI prediction, the visitors are the slight favorites in this game with a probability of winning of over 47%. And this probability is exactly where the value tip comes in – bookmaker Interwetten is offering odds of 2.15 on the Spaniards in the PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid match, which corresponds to a probability of around 46.5%. So you can get some easy value here!
PSV Eindhoven – Statistics & current form
PSV goes into this match with mixed feelings. On the one hand, the head-to-head record clearly speaks against the Dutch, as PSV has failed to win any of its six previous competitive matches against Atlético Madrid in European competitions. With two draws and four defeats, Atlético is the opponent PSV has faced most often internationally without ever winning.
Particularly striking is their lack of offensive threat: in all six Champions League games against Atlético, PSV has scored only one goal. Among all teams with at least five games against the same opponent, only Club Brugge has a worse goal ratio against Borussia Dortmund. These two statistics are decisive in our tip for the PSV Eindhoven vs. Atlético Madrid match going to the visitors.
PSV in scoring mood
On the other hand, their current form in the ongoing Champions League season paints a very different picture. PSV have won two of their last three games by at least three goals, including a spectacular 6-2 win over Napoli and a clear 4-1 win over Liverpool. This means that the club has recorded as many wins by three or more goals as in its previous 138 games in the European Cup and Champions League combined.
Joey Veerman, who has played the most line-breaking passes in the league, is a key figure in the team’s build-up play. He frequently finds Ismael Saibari, giving PSV clear structural strengths in possession despite their historical problems against Atlético.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atlético Madrid travels to PSV with a clear historical and structural superiority. The team is unbeaten in six European encounters and is one of the opponents against whom Atlético has scored particularly consistently. Only against Celtic and Lokomotiv Moscow have the Madrid team played more European Cup games without defeat.
Atlético has also been extremely stable against Dutch teams in the Champions League in general. Since the beginning of this century, the club has been unbeaten against opponents from the Netherlands, winning six of a total of eight games, including the last four in a row. In our PSV Eindhoven vs. Atlético Madrid prediction, we are betting on a fifth consecutive victory.
Top at home, flop away
However, there are clear differences in form between home and away performances. Atlético has celebrated 13 of its last 17 Champions League victories in its own stadium, where it is currently on a run of six consecutive home wins. Away from home, on the other hand, the team has lost three times in a row and has only once in the club’s history faced an even longer losing streak in the Champions League.
Nevertheless, individual quality in attack remains crucial. Since the start of last season, Julián Álvarez and Antoine Griezmann have been directly involved in over two-thirds of all the club’s Champions League goals. Álvarez has contributed 13 points, while Griezmann recently made club history with his assist against Inter Milan. We are therefore betting on Álvarez to score again in the PSV Eindhoven vs. Atlético Madrid match at odds of 2.10 at Winamax.
PSV Eindhoven – Atlético Madrid Head-to-head record
The head-to-head record clearly favors Atlético Madrid. In a total of six matches in the UEFA Champions League, the top Spanish club has remained unbeaten against PSV Eindhoven. Atlético won four of these matches, two ended in a draw, while PSV has yet to record a victory. The goal difference also clearly shows Atlético’s superiority: Atlético scored eight goals, while PSV only managed to score one. This makes Atlético one of the most difficult opponents for the Dutch on the European stage.
PSV Eindhoven – Atletico Madrid Tip
We expect one thing above all else from the PSV Eindhoven vs. Atlético Madrid match: goals. In the ten Champions League games played by both teams so far, an average of 4.3 goals have been scored – in PSV’s two home games and Atlético’s two away games, at least four goals per game have been guaranteed.
Otherwise, our pendulum swings in favor of the visitors. Although PSV are unbeaten in four games and Atleti have failed to score in both away games, the Rojiblancos are still unbeaten against the Dutch and have won their last four games against Dutch clubs in a row. In addition, Simeone’s team is completely undefeated against teams from the Netherlands this century, and PSV has scored only one goal in six direct duels against the Spaniards.
