Will Ajax continue their upward trend?

Two surprise teams of the current Champions League season face off in the Qarabag FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam tip. The home side has surprised European audiences with astonishing results so far, collecting enough points to rank 19th.

The Dutch representative’s performances have also been astonishing so far – albeit in a negative sense. De Godenzonen are the only Champions League participant still without points. Defensively, the visitors from our Qarabag FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam prediction have been punished too often.

However, interim coach Fred Grim has recently initiated a positive turnaround. After four consecutive competitive defeats, Ajax first defeated Groningen (2-0) and then added another three points in the national competition in their CL dress rehearsal against Fortuna Sittard (3-1).

These positive results have had very little influence on the distribution of the Qarabag FC – Ajax Amsterdam betting odds. On the bookmakers’ websites, you can get almost 4.0 times your stake back for a win by Grim’s team.

However, we would primarily recommend a classic 1X2 bet with one of the numerous freebets offered by the betting providers – the two teams are too close in the comparisons of the expected values for a clear advantage in favor of one of the two teams to be discernible.

Qarabag FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam Prediction AI

The hosts’ expected defense (9.8 xGA) is only marginally better than that of Ajax Amsterdam (10.5 xGA). For sports betting providers, the probabilities for “over 1.5 goals” from Qarabag and Ajax vary greatly. According to our artificial intelligence’s Qarabag FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam prediction, this is where the real value lies.

Qarabag FC – Statistics & current form

Participating in the premier class is something special for most of the players in the home team’s squad, even though the Reiter are no longer unknowns in the context of the three major European competitions. However, this is only the second time in its history that the club from Azerbaijan has participated in the Champions League.

In contrast to their CL debut season in 2018, the Blue and Whites have improved significantly and have even earned themselves the role of favorites with the bookmakers in the Qarabag FC – Ajax Amsterdam tip. Benfica Lisbon (3-2) and Copenhagen (2-0) have already been caught off guard, and even Chelsea (2-2) were unable to defeat Qurban Qurbanov’s team. The hosts have only suffered defeats against Athletic Bilbao (1-2) and SSC Napoli (0-2) in this Champions League group stage so far.

In terms of football, the Reiter even dare to take control of the game at times. Their pace when in possession (1.57 m/s) is similar to that of Manchester City (1.55 m/s). However, the men from Azerbaijan do not press high up the pitch (16.4 passes allowed per defensive action).

Is Qarabag Agdam in danger of slipping up?

The Riders have been outpacing their national competition for years. Qarabag has won eleven of the twelve previous championships in Azerbaijan. At the moment, dreams of participating in the Champions League playoffs are even allowed (Qarabag FC currently ranks 19th in the table).

But there are also questions about consistency. Qarabag has conceded at least two goals in four of five Champions League matchdays. Only Ajax Amsterdam and FC Copenhagen have conceded at least two goals more often in the current league phase.

Furthermore, among the current playoff teams, only Paphos (10.6 xGA) has conceded more expected goals than Qarabag (10.5 xGA). So far, however, the Reiters have been able to compensate for this with their offense. Qurbanov’s team has scored at least two goals in each of its last four consecutive European home games. The home side could do the same in our Qarabag FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam prediction.

Ajax Amsterdam – Statistics & current form

Is Ajax slowly turning things around? After four consecutive defeats in competitive games, De Gondenzonen celebrated two wins in a row ahead of their sixth appearance in the Champions League. As a result, interim coach Fred Grim’s team has at least moved back up to fourth place in the national competition.

This small injection of success should now translate into a longer period of good fortune in the Champions League. Ajax is the only CL participant still without a point (5D) and has a disastrous goal difference of 1:16 behind its name in the table.

The recent past in European competitions reveals further poor statistics. Ajax has lost its last eight consecutive matches in UEFA competitions – the longest losing streak of its kind in the club’s history. In addition, the visitors have lost nine of their previous ten Champions League matches (1W).

There is hope for Ajax Amsterdam

Nevertheless, we still give the Dutch record champions a fair chance of winning in our Qarabag FC vs. Ajax Amsterdam prediction. A closer look at the statistics reveals several indications of a turnaround. Take the offense, for example.

De Godenzonen have scored only one goal in the Champions League so far – according to expected goals, they should have scored five. The argument of chance quality is even stronger. Yes, the Amsterdam club has only had ten shots on the opponent’s goal, but the average chance quality is promising at 0.13 expected goals per shot (37 in total).

The visitors will probably not be able to shake off their defensive instability for the time being. Ajax has conceded 32 shots on goal so far – too many from promising positions by the opposing professionals (0.14 expected goals against per shot).

Qarabag FC – Ajax Amsterdam Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Qarabag and Ajax only met for the first time last season. In October 2024, the Dutch record champions won the only meeting between the two sides so far with a confident 3-0 victory. This week’s match is unlikely to be as one-sided as it was on the third matchday of the previous Europa League season.

Qarabag FC – Ajax Amsterdam Tip

No one should underestimate the representatives from Azerbaijan in their own stadium – especially not the struggling club from the Netherlands. Qarabag have lost only one of their last five European home games, winning three of those five matches in their own stadium.

Their performances so far this Champions League season have also earned the hosts more expected points (5.6 xPTS) than Ajax (4.0 xPTS). However, the two clubs are similar in many categories. Spectators can probably look forward to an entertaining and open match.

Both defenses have shown enough gaps between the different parts of the team so far, which suggests goals at both ends. Based on their previous performances, it’s even possible that both teams will score at least two goals. A corresponding Qarabag Agdam vs. Ajax tip is attractively priced.