Will Munich take the trophy in Saxony?

FC Bayern Munich is close to achieving its goal: if the tip for an away win for the Reds against RB Leipzig comes in, Vincent Kompany’s team will be mathematically certain of winning the championship. The motivation of the record champions is likely to be correspondingly high, although they will be without goal-getter Harry Kane at the Red Bull Arena. The Brit picked up his fifth yellow card last weekend and is suspended.

Even without Kane, however, the odds are clearly in Munich’s favor against RB Leipzig, who have not only lost just one of their ten competitive away games at the Red Bull Arena (four wins, five draws), but are now also facing an opponent who has struggled recently, even after a change of coach. RBL has just four wins from 14 games in the second half of the season (seven draws, three defeats) and is in danger of missing out on the Champions League for only the second time since being promoted to the Bundesliga.

The pressure is also enormous for the Saxons, who would be five points behind a Champions League spot if Freiburg wins and they lose at home to FCB, which would almost certainly be impossible to make up in the last two matchdays. However, the recent 0-4 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt also clearly showed that the Red Bulls are simply not a top team in their current form. In the first leg, they also suffered a 1-5 defeat on the Isar.

RB Leipzig vs. Bayern prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSiE doesn’t really find much value in the three-way system, as the AI rates the probability of a Munich away win at only 54.4 percent. However, the AI prediction for RB Leipzig against Bayern is clearly for under 3.5 goals, for which the Interwetten app is offering odds of 1.90. This implies a probability of 52.6 percent. BETSiE, on the other hand, predicts that 63 percent of the goals will be under 3.5, based on a calculated expected goals value of 3.06, which means we have a discrepancy of ten percent on this bet. You can’t get much more value than that.

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

RB Leipzig is facing its second-worst Bundesliga season with 49 points after 31 games. Only in 2017/18 was the record worse at the same point in the season. Back then, the Saxons finished sixth in the table, missing out on Champions League qualification for the first and only time. The current second half of the season is also unconvincing: only four wins from 14 games mark a negative internal record – RBL won twice as many games in the first half of the season.

At home, however, the Red Bulls are at least dangerous in attack: Benjamin Sesko has been directly involved in twelve home goals and has scored in two consecutive Bundesliga games against FC Bayern. Nevertheless, Leipzig has the third-worst record in the league with 90 big chances conceded – only Bochum and Kiel have been more vulnerable. El Chadaille Bitshiabu is also suspended after receiving a red card.

RB Leipzig is compact but mostly too tame in attack

RBL’s defense has been solid overall: with 13 clean sheets, the club is second in the league behind FC Bayern, and RB has conceded only twelve goals in the final stages of games – the best record alongside Munich. However, the team lacks punch in the final third: only ten goals in the last half hour is the third-worst record in the league.

Meanwhile, their record against FCB is dismal. They have won only one of their ten competitive games against Munich at home. The first leg of this season’s tie was a 5-1 defeat, the club’s heaviest Bundesliga defeat against the record champions. Zsolt Löw’s team are clear underdogs, with odds of 4.50 for a win in the Bet365 app for RB Leipzig against Bayern.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern Munich is on the verge of winning the title: with one more victory on matchday 32, the record champions will be uncatchable. Their record so far this season is impressive. Only two defeats in 31 games is their best tally since 2016/17. The Munich side has already collected more points (75) than in the entire previous season (72). In Leipzig, FCB has lost only one of ten games – a 1-2 defeat in March 2018.

The defense is the foundation for what is likely to be the club’s 34th championship title: with 14 clean sheets, the Reds have the most stable defense in the league. Even in the final stages of the season, the team is almost impossible to beat (twelve goals conceded), but at the same time extremely dangerous. With 35 goals scored after the 61st minute, the record champions clearly lead this category.

Will an efficient Bayern side win the championship?

Top scorer Harry Kane, who is now set to win the first major title of his career, will miss the game after picking up his fifth yellow card. Bayern have averaged just 1.5 points per game without him, compared to 2.6 with him. Even without the Englishman, the offense is still impressive: Michael Olise leads the league with twelve assists and has already collected eleven points in the second half of the season – the best in the league. Despite Kane’s absence, RB Leipzig are still tipped to secure another away win at the Red Bull Arena against Bayern.

After all, their conversion rate is also very impressive. Bayern have already created 154 big chances – by far the most in the league. If the offense continues to be efficient without Kane, there is a good chance that the record champions will seal the title on this matchday, especially as the hosts from Saxony are the Bundesliga team that has conceded the third-most big chances.

RB Leipzig – Bayern Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 3 – 6 – 12

A total of 21 competitive matches have been played between the two clubs so far, with FC Bayern Munich leading the head-to-head record very clearly with twelve wins. The Reds won the first leg against RB Leipzig 5–1 and have lost only once in ten away games at the Red Bull Arena in their short history (four wins, five draws).

RB Leipzig – Bayern prediction

Taking all factors into account, our RB Leipzig vs. Bayern prediction is for an away win and the title for Munich, who will be without their goal-getter Harry Kane but face an opponent who are struggling and were beaten 4-0 in Frankfurt last weekend. The Red Bulls have won only four of their 14 games in the second half of the season and are currently enjoying their second-worst Bundesliga season in the club’s history. In this form, they are likely to be outclassed by the resurgent record champions.

We therefore recommend a straightforward bet on an away win for Munich, for which odds of 1.70 are being offered for RB Leipzig against Bayern. At Interwetten, we are investing six out of ten units in this bet.