Will Eintracht finally have to give up?
For the fourth time this season, Eintracht Frankfurt will play in the Saturday evening Bundesliga match. The three previous top matches involving SGE were hard to beat in terms of spectacle. A total of 20 goals were scored, an average of almost seven (!) per game.
In the upcoming away game at RB Leipzig, the bookmakers are again expecting a relatively high-scoring game, even though the Hessians have recently looked rather toothless in attack and will once again have to do without their best striker Burkardt. It might therefore even be an option to bet on under goals between RB Leipzig and Frankfurt!
The favorites are the hosts from the central city, who have had a strong season so far, are Bayern’s closest rivals in the table, and have been particularly impressive in front of their own fans. During the week, Werner’s team also secured their place in the quarterfinals of the DFB Cup with a confident home win against Magdeburg.
The Eagles, who have not lost any of their last four Bundesliga away games, therefore face a tough task. Basically, my RB Leipzig vs. Frankfurt prediction also points to three points for the home side, which can be justified by the fact that the players from the Main metropolis have a lower away points ratio against RBL than against any other club in the German top flight.
RB Leipzig vs. Frankfurt prediction AI
The AI prediction for the RB Leipzig vs. Frankfurt game paints a rather surprising picture. Looking at the absolute values for xG or the probability of victory, the AI agrees with the Saxons being the favorites. However, when the figures are put into perspective and compared with the bookmakers’ betting odds, value can be seen in bets on Eintracht Frankfurt. This applies to both the double chance X2 and the isolated away win on the three-way market. Based on a probability of over 50%, the artificial intelligence therefore recommends betting on a point win for the Hessians.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
Only twice has RB Leipzig had more points on the board after twelve matchdays than it currently does. The 26 points collected at this point are enough for second place in the standings and are equally satisfying for the management. With exciting transfers of young, promising players, the Saxons returned to their true DNA in the summer and have obviously found the right coach in Ole Werner, who has managed to form a functioning collective within a short period of time. If the Bulls’ prediction comes true again on Saturday evening between RB Leipzig and Frankfurt, they could already be eight points ahead of Eintracht!
The RB defense currently meets the highest standards
The central city team’s remarkable home record speaks for itself. They have won all five league matches played in front of their home crowd. The fact that they have conceded only three goals is particularly striking and is a first indication that, although the media primarily focuses on offensive players such as Nusa, Diomande, and Baumgartner (who deserve the praise), Werner’s system is secretly based on a strong defense.
Six of the 13 goals conceded were scored in the 6-0 defeat on the first matchday in Munich. Conversely, this means that RBL has conceded only seven goals in the last eleven matchdays. This is the best record in the Bundesliga, as are the six clean sheets since matchday two. If Peter Gulacsi keeps a clean sheet again this weekend, Betano is offering odds of 2.75 for RB Leipzig to beat Frankfurt.
Frankfurt – Statistics & current form
Frankfurt Eintracht’s current form actually looks decent in terms of results. Coach Dino Toppmöller’s team has not lost six Bundesliga games in a row (3-3-0). The Hessians have also not returned empty-handed from their last four away games (2-2-0). In seventh place and only two points behind fourth-placed Leverkusen, the Eagles are also in a promising position.
Will Toppmöller opt for a back three or back four?
However, the interim conclusion is not entirely positive, of course. This is primarily due to their recent performances. SGE have won just three of their last twelve competitive games. In the Bundesliga, the Champions League participants benefited more from weak opponents (Cologne, St. Pauli, Mainz) than from convincing performances. Last week’s extremely fortunate 1-1 draw at home against a VfL Wolfsburg side in poor form fits perfectly into this picture!
The offense is particularly worrying, having managed to score more than once in just two of the last nine competitive games. In a way, however, the problems are self-inflicted. On the one hand, because there is no strong backup available for the injured Jonathan Burkardt and the coaching team has to improvise at the top. On the other hand, because the team has sacrificed its very offensive approach in order to be more stable at the back.
In the last five games in which SGE started with a back three, a maximum of two goals were scored in 90 minutes. In general, over 4.5 would have only been possible in one of Eintracht’s last seven Bundesliga matches. On Saturday evening, I’m even checking the RB Leipzig vs. Frankfurt betting odds for a maximum of three goals in the game!
RB Leipzig – Frankfurt Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The Red Bull Arena in Leipzig has not been a happy hunting ground for Eintracht Frankfurt in recent years. Of a total of nine Bundesliga away games in the central city, the Hessians have won only one (1-3-5). In total, they have scored only six goals, never more than one goal per game.
Things went better on home turf, where SGE thrashed the Saxons 4-0 last season. Looking back at the last six encounters, it was one of only two matches in which more than 3.5 goals were scored. Across all competitions, only one of RBL’s twelve home games against Frankfurt has seen more than three goals scored.
RB Leipzig – Frankfurt Tip
Although Eintracht Frankfurt has not lost any of its last six Bundesliga games, it is slowly threatening to lose touch with the top group. A defeat in Leipzig would see the gap to the second-placed opponent grow to eight points.
The Hessians are currently looking extremely harmless in attack, but are more stable defensively. With a back three in particular, low-scoring matches have been the order of the day recently. Regardless of which system Toppmöller decides on this weekend, SGE simply lacks the options, the players and the confidence for an offensive spectacle at the moment.
I’m combining my oft-stated under approach with the double chance 1X. RBL has won all five home games so far this Bundesliga season, lost only once in nine Bundesliga matches against Eintracht at home, and also has the best defense since matchday two – seven goals conceded in eleven games. So, a good compromise before the RB Leipzig vs. Frankfurt match would be to bet on 1X & Under 4.5.
