Will Real get revenge in the Madrid derby for the first leg?
Both teams were in England together earlier this week. While Real Madrid secured their ticket to the Champions League quarterfinals with an away win at Manchester City—where they will now face Bayern Munich—Atletico Madrid lost to Tottenham Hotspur but still advanced on aggregate.
The Colchoneros are also among Europe’s top eight teams and will face FC Barcelona, whom they had already eliminated in the Copa del Rey over two legs.
However, the odds aren’t in the Colchoneros’ favor, as they have performed significantly worse on the road in the 2025/26 season than they have at home. Their 4-0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey was followed by a 0-3 away defeat. The 5-2 win against Tottenham in the first leg was followed by a 2-3 loss midweek. We’ll find out on Sunday evening what follows the Rojiblancos’ 5-2 victory in the first leg against Real Madrid. In any case, we expect goals from both sides in this match as well, which is what our main tip is based on.
Given that Diego Simeone’s team—who, by the way, is now facing his 50th Derbi Madrileño as a coach (13 wins, 15 draws, 21 losses)—is also significantly weaker defensively on the road, this could even turn into a high-scoring match at the Bernabéu.
Real Madrid – Atlético Madrid Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 118 – 63 – 61
The Derbi Madrileño has been played a total of 242 times so far, and with 118 wins, Real Madrid clearly has the upper hand. In La Liga, the Blancos have remained unbeaten against Atlético Madrid in nine consecutive home games (three wins, six draws), but suffered a 2-5 defeat in the first leg away at the Metropolitano.
Real Madrid – Atlético Madrid Prediction
While the Royals can no longer afford to drop any points if they are to avoid losing further ground in the title race against FC Barcelona, there is almost nothing left at stake for the Rojiblancos in league play.
The third-place team trails the leader by 13 points. They hold a 13-point lead over fifth place, which—depending on the UEFA coefficient in Spain—might still be enough to qualify for the Champions League. For the Colchoneros, this 243rd Derbi Madrileño in history, making it purely a matter of prestige—a factor that should certainly be taken into account in the Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid prediction.
The Rojiblancos, who haven’t always been entirely convincing on the road, might just play with even more freedom at the Bernabéu precisely because it’s such a crucial match for their city rivals. In six of their last nine La Liga away matches against the Blancos, the Colchoneros have drawn (with three losses). Five of those six draws were 1-1 draws—a result that is very plausible again this time around, which we’re covering by betting on both teams to score.
