How exciting can BVB make it?
The Club World Cup 2025 will see a rematch of the 2024 Champions League final in the quarter-finals. Basically, Real Madrid seems to be the favorite to win again against Dortmund. However, BVB should not be underestimated too easily. After all, the Black and Yellows are unbeaten in eleven competitive games (nine wins, two draws) and just recorded a 4-2 victory over Madrid coach Xabi Alonso on matchday 33 of the Bundesliga – back when he was still in charge of Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Overall, however, the record clearly favors the Royals, who have lost only three of their 16 competitive games against BVB (eight wins, five draws) and have won the last four encounters, scoring 13 goals in the process. Both teams were also very accurate in front of goal at the Club World Cup, which is why a high-scoring quarter-final between Real Madrid and Dortmund is widely predicted.
Serhou Guirassy stands out for the Black and Yellows with an expected goals on target value of 5.00 – the highest of any player at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. However, the fact that he has “only” scored three goals is also due to the fact that he has already missed seven big chances. Nevertheless, the goal-getter could also be a factor against the Blancos, who continue to compensate for many defensive absences and still have to fully integrate their new signings Huijsen and Alexander-Arnold.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid, the record winner of the Club World Cup, is aiming to take the crown again this year despite a significantly stronger field of participants, thereby erasing some of the shame of the title-less 2024/25 season. It would also be the first coup under new coach Xabi Alonso.
After their 1-0 win over Juventus Turin, the Merengues now face a BVB side in fine form. If Real Madrid beat Dortmund as expected, the next big clash in the semifinals would be between the winner of the duel between Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich.
Will Mbappé return to the starting line-up against Dortmund?
The Madrid side extended their unbeaten run in the United States to seven competitive games (six wins, one draw). Only in their opening game against City’s conquerors Al Hilal did they fail to win, drawing 1-1. The subsequent three games at the Club World Cup were all won 7-1, which is why Alonso’s team can look forward to this quarter-final with confidence.
The many absences, which mainly affect the defense, remain a problem. However, the two new signings, Dean Huijsen and Trent Alexander-Arnold, have both settled in very well and earned good marks in the quarterfinals against Juventus Turin, although too much rotation is not really possible after a long season. All the more positive is the fact that Kylian Mbappé is back in regular training after recovering from gastroenteritis and is very likely to be back in the starting line-up against BVB.
Real Madrid’s expected line-up:
Courtois – F. Garcia, Huijsen, Tchouaméni, Rüdiger, Alexander-Arnold – Güler, Valverde, Bellingham – Vinicius Jr., Mbappé
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund has shown very mixed performances in the Club World Cup so far, but has also held its own well considering the obstacles it has faced, remaining unbeaten in all four games (three wins, one draw). This extends the Westphalians’ unbeaten run to eleven games (nine wins, two draws), after they managed to secure a place in the Champions League with a crazy final sprint that had been considered impossible.
Now, however, the Black and Yellows face their toughest test of the tournament so far. Of course, they do not want to admit defeat without a fight. Nevertheless, their underdog status is justified by the fact that they have won only three of 16 competitive games against the Blancos (five draws, eight defeats). At Bet365, where new customers can get up to $100 in betting credits with the Bet365 bonus, the odds for Real Madrid against Dortmund are 5.00 for a BVB win in regular time.
Dortmund hopes for the Guirassy effect again
The face of the recent upswing is striker Serhou Guirassy, who now has three goals in the tournament after scoring twice in the round of 16 against Monterrey. According to the so-called expected goals on target (xGOT) value, i.e. the number of goals he should have scored based on his shots on goal, the 29-year-old has the highest value of any player in the tournament with 5.00. This figure also takes into account the fact that he has already missed seven big chances.
At least this time he won’t be fed by Jobe Bellingham’s crosses, which means there won’t be a brotherly duel. The Black and Yellows’ new signing is serving a yellow card suspension in the quarter-finals. Meanwhile, there should be few changes to the rest of the team, meaning that Niko Kovac can at least field a side brimming with confidence. The BVB coach has an impressive average of 2.04 points per game, which has only been surpassed by Thomas Tuchel (2.12) at Borussia since 1957.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Svensson, Bensebaini, Anton, Süle, Ryerson – Sabitzer, Nmecha, Groß – Adeyemi, Guirassy
Real Madrid – Dortmund Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 8 – 5 – 3
A total of 16 competitive matches have already been played between the two teams, who only just faced each other in the Champions League final on June 1, 2024. Not only did Real Madrid win that game 2–0, but the Blancos also beat BVB 5–2 in their most recent meeting in the 2024/25 Champions League group stage. The last four encounters have all gone to the Royals, who scored 13 goals against Dortmund in those four games.
Real Madrid – Dortmund betting tip
The betting odds from the best bookmakers are leaning heavily towards Real Madrid against Dortmund, who not only have to continue to compensate for several absences, but also face an opponent in strong form who have not lost in eleven competitive games (nine wins, two draws). Although we generally agree that the Royals are the favorites, there is no value to be found in betting on a Merengues victory given the low odds.
It is striking that both teams have been very prolific in front of goal. In their last six meetings, there have been goals at both ends five times and at least three goals in each of those games. It is therefore very interesting to predict that Real Madrid vs. Dortmund will be another heated encounter in the 17th competitive meeting between the two clubs.