Will Girona drag the home side deeper into the relegation zone?
In the run-up to this La Liga season, there has been a minor shake-up at Txuri-Urdinak. Imanol Alguacil gave up his place on the bench and players such as Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendo also moved on. Sergio Francisco has taken over as coach and will remain on the sidelines in Real Sociedad vs. Girona Tip.
This shows how patient La Real’s management is with their coach. The 46-year-old has never held a top-level position before, but came straight from the second team. The pressure on the home side is high in our Real Sociedad vs. Girona prediction: only four points separate the Basques from the first relegation spot and thus the visitors.
Consistency also reigns on the other side. Head coach Michel has been doing his job at the Blanquivermells since 2021. At the moment, however, the visitors are one of the weakest teams in the Spanish top flight. Except for the two promoted teams, Levante (9) and Real Oviedo (10), no La Liga team has fewer points than Girona (12).
Before the Albirrojos suffered a 0-3 defeat against Elche on the previous matchday, Michel’s protégés were enjoying their best spell of the season. Following a 1-0 home win against Alaves, Girona remained unbeaten against both Betis Sevilla (1-1) and Real Madrid (1-1). However, in terms of the underlying statistics, there has been no noticeable upward trend during these matches.
The brief upturn has already come to an end after the defeat against Elche, and the prospects for three points away from home are poor – the visitors have yet to win an away game. Our analysis has revealed a value in the Real Sociedad vs. Girona odds of 2.50 for “Girona under 0.5 goals.”
Real Sociedad – Girona Head-to-head record / H2H record
The Albirrojos last visited the Reale Arena on matchday 37 of last season. Coach Michel and his team lost 3-2 after an exciting duel. The two previous encounters were somewhat closer to our expectations for this rematch.
Girona failed to score in two consecutive matches against La Real. In addition to a goalless draw, there was a narrow 0-1 defeat in the home game. With their current favored style of play, the visitors are once again facing the threat of a goalless draw against the Basques.
Real Sociedad – Girona Tip
Under Sergio Francisco, Real Sociedad’s second team already had problems playing against deep-lying opponents. This trend has continued in the Spanish top flight. The Basques had a total of 71 shots on the opponent’s goal (5th), but only managed 0.10 expected goals per shot. Once again, the Txuri-Urdinak are struggling in the final third.
Girona defends passively (16.7 PPDA), trying to build a block and maintain defensive structure. On average, the back line presses 38.3 meters in front of its own goal—the deepest of any La Liga team. From this deep positioning, however, Michel’s players rarely manage to get into dangerous areas themselves.
Only four teams have scored fewer expected goals than Girona (15.9 xG). Their away form is particularly poor (5 goals in 7 games) and the traveling fans have been consistently denied a win on the road in seven attempts so far.
In addition, three of the Albirrojos’ offensive players are expected to be out: captain Cristhian Stuani, fellow striker Abel Ruiz, and winger Portu. The skills of Donny van de Beek, who will be out until April next year with a torn Achilles tendon, will also be sorely missed.
