Will the tide turn for Sergio Francisco?
Friday evening in San Sebastian: the air smells of the sea, the ball smells of risk. In our Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla tip, both clubs are still searching for the right rhythm. What is emerging is not a controlled game of chess, but rather a fast-paced back and forth with open flanks and small mistakes at the wrong moments.
For our Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla prediction, we dug into the statistics and discovered a history of shaky defenses and offenses that score.
The transition to Sergio Francisco on the Basque bench has left its mark. La Real wants a fresh, direct, and courageous approach to the game. The 46-year-old has implemented this, but at the expense of balance. Defensively, Los Txuri-Urdin are significantly more vulnerable under the new coach than in recent years.
The result: 13.77 expected goals conceded after nine matchdays – only 15th place in the league comparison. The Basques finished last season in sixth place in this category (44.2 xGA). The year before, La Real ranked among the four best expected defenses in the Spanish top flight (42.0 xGA). The negative trend is also reflected in the Real Sociedad – Sevilla betting odds.
A once compact structure has become porous, and a sports betting bonus on a home win is not a sensible idea. The pressing is uneven and somewhat less of a focus than it was under predecessor Imanol Alguacil. What remains, however, is the ability to score regularly: seven out of nine games with a goal of their own – but only once more than one goal (2-2 vs. Espanyol Barcelona on matchday 2).
While the home side is weak defensively, Sevilla is thriving on efficiency. The Andalusians have scored an impressive 16 goals (3rd) from 9.38 expected goals (14th) – an almost outrageously good ratio. At the same time, Matias Jesus Almeyda’s team remains vulnerable at the back. Our conclusion is to go for a Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla odds of 1.80 for “Both teams to score” at NEO.bet.
Real Sociedad – Sevilla Head-to-head record/H2H record
With 15.57 expected goals against (17th), the Andalusians allow even more dangerous situations than Real Sociedad. Particularly striking: for every shot on goal by their opponents, the visitors have conceded 0.14 expected goals so far – the second-highest figure in the entire Spanish Primera Division! When the opponent runs at goal, it is often from the best positions.
In recent head-to-head matches between the two clubs, the pattern has been similar: lots of tactics, but hardly any sterile games. Four of the last six encounters were only decided after both teams had scored at least one goal.
Real Sociedad – Sevilla Tip
Goals have been the rule rather than the exception in previous games. Most recently, both teams scored in five of Sevilla’s six matches. The highlight was the spectacular 4-1 win against Barcelona. So far, Almeyda’s team has scored in every single match day.
Consistency is also a strength of Real Sociedad. The home team has found a way to score in seven of nine La Liga matches. However, this has rarely been enough for a victory. La Real celebrated only one victory, but ended six of nine games with goals for both clubs.
When two teams meet that need to readjust defensively but almost always find a way to score offensively, the result is a mixture that clearly points towards goals in terms of betting – according to our Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla tip, on both sides.
Sevilla allows too many shots from inside its own penalty area (69.09 percent – the second highest), but has the highest shot conversion rate in the Spanish top flight (16.16 percent).
