Will a set piece decide the game?
The hosts have spent two consecutive years in the top flight. This year, Zvezda are competing one division lower and are at the bottom of the Europa League table ahead of the Red Star Belgrade vs. Lille tip. After only one point from the first three rounds of matches, the best betting providers have decided to push the Serbian representatives into the role of underdogs despite playing at home.
The home side’s offense has been alarmingly weak so far. Head coach Vladan Milojevic has hardly seen his team in the opponent’s penalty area. Only set pieces offer Crveno-Beli a serious chance of scoring in the Red Star Belgrade vs. Lille prediction.
The hosts scored two goals in the first three rounds of the tournament – both from set pieces. The Serbs, who are still winless in the Europa League (1D, 2L), owe 42 percent of their expected goals (1.08 xG) to their own set pieces.
Although this percentage is extremely high, the French side have celebrated even more set-piece goals overall (3). To exaggerate slightly, visiting coach Bruno Genesio sees his team almost always operating in the opponent’s penalty area (109 touches in the opponent’s box – the most of any EL team) – but clear chances are far too often lacking. So we understand why the Red Star Belgrade – Lille betting odds for a win on either side are more than double the winnings.
Both offenses hardly create any high-quality scoring chances, even though the Dogues have already scored six EL goals. As long as this match doesn’t turn into a real set-piece festival, goals could be few and far between. However, there shouldn’t be too many free kicks. Apart from Panathinaikos (7.7), no EL participant commits fewer fouls per game than Red Star (8.3). Lille is also cautious with opposing teams (9.0) and is just above them.
Red Star Belgrade – Lille Head-to-head record / H2H record
This is the first time in their club histories that the two clubs have faced each other in a competitive match. The French representative has only played against a Serbian representative in the 2009/2010 Europa League qualifiers, winning both matches against FK Sevojno.
Another victory against a Serbian team is entirely possible on the fourth matchday of the Europa League. Red Star Belgrade has won only two of its last 18 matches in one of the three major European competitions. Fourteen defeats and two draws complete the picture.
Red Star Belgrade – Lille Tip
Neither team has been convincing in the final third. Belgrade has hardly had any shots on goal from open play and, even taking set pieces into account, has only had nine shots on the opponent’s goal in three matches.
The average quality of the chances created (0.07 xG/shot) is not enough to be considered dangerous – the threat of a goalless game is currently looming over Zvezda again. Most recently, the home side failed to score in two of four competitive games and only surpassed the 1.5 goal mark in one of those four matches.
Lille (6 goals) has been somewhat fortunate in terms of expected goals (4.36 xG) and has been extremely dependent on set pieces (3/6 goals). For the average chance quality of 0.09 xG/shot, the shot conversion rate (12.50 percent) has been quite high and can change quickly.
