Will Rangnick’s team struggle more than expected?
With 124 international caps to his name, Marko Arnautovic is Austria’s most capped player. However, the Inter Milan player, who reached the Champions League final last season, has made no secret of his desire to end his international career next summer. Ideally, he would like to do so with a strong showing at the World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Before that, however, Arnautovic and his teammates still have to fulfill their duty, namely qualifying for the tournament. The next step toward the World Cup finals will be taken on Tuesday evening. Ahead of the match between San Marino and Austria, the prediction for Rangnick’s team should be a mere formality.
The San Marino national team is by far the biggest underdog in Group H, having learned some hard lessons in all three matches so far and currently sitting at the bottom of the five-team table without a single point. It is highly unlikely that this will change in their home game against the European Championship quarter-finalists. The San Marino vs. Austria prediction is therefore primarily about how big the “boys” will win and which markets can potentially be combined in a match combo.
Although there is obviously a huge gap in quality between these two teams, it must be said in favor of the minnows from the tiny state that most of their defeats in recent months have been by a limited margin compared to previous thrashings. Nevertheless, odds of 65.00 at the top for a sensational home win between San Marino and Austria underscore that this is a typical David vs. Goliath duel.
San Marino – Statistics & current form
The San Marino national team celebrated one of the greatest successes in its history last fall. Thanks to seven points from a total of four games against Liechtenstein and Gibraltar, coach Roberto Cevoli’s team won the UEFA Nations League Division D and was promoted to Division C. Overall, the 2025 calendar year ended with “only” six defeats in ten international matches – a remarkable achievement for the world number 210, who occupies the last place in the FIFA rankings behind the Virgin Islands, Guam and the Bahamas.
San Marino often proved competitive
In any case, it should be noted that the football minnow is undergoing a respectable development, continues to be considered a clear underdog against almost all European nations, and yet has rarely suffered a heavy defeat recently (5+ goal difference). Looking back at the European Championship qualifiers for the 2024 finals, for example, only the Finnish national team was able to score more than four goals against “La Serenissima.”
For around four years in a row, the San Marinese never conceded more than four goals on home turf. However, this streak came to an end in March 2025, when Cevoli’s team lost 5-1 at home to Romania. At half-time, the score was only 2-0, with the last goal coming in the 90th minute.
The team, which won its first competitive match in its history last year, made a much better impression last Saturday in Bosnia. Thanks to a very focused defensive performance, the underdogs lost only 0-1 in Zenica.1. Because they only conceded two goals in their opening game of this qualifying phase against Cyprus and the offense led by top scorer Nicola Nanni is not expected to score on Tuesday evening, the betting odds for a favorite win with a maximum of four goals in the game can be considered before San Marino’s clash with Austria. However, if you believe in a 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 away win, Winamax offers solid odds of 2.85, which you can bet on with the $110 free bets from Winamax.
Austria – Statistics & current form
Before most of the Austrian national team players can go on their well-deserved summer vacation after Tuesday evening’s away game in the enclave surrounded by Italy, they first have to complete their mandatory task. Admittedly, however, no one expects last year’s European Championship quarter-finalists to slip up and have to fight for the three points they have firmly planned to take home.
Instead, the bookmakers’ San Marino vs. Austria prediction clearly points to a high handicap victory. If Rangnick’s team wins by at least four goals, for example, the Interwetten app is offering odds of just 1.70. You can still use the Interwetten $10 voucher on this bet.
Will Austria do its job on Tuesday?
Despite the clash of worlds in terms of quality and international experience, it should be noted in the run-up to this uneven encounter that it has now been six years since an Austrian national soccer team scored more than three goals away from home. The last time there were four goals to celebrate in an away match was in June 2019, when Austria won 4-1 in North Macedonia. Even against national teams from Moldova, Azerbaijan, Estonia, and the Faroe Islands, two goals have been the best they could manage in recent times.
This is certainly also due to the fact that Rangnick’s team, which is peppered with numerous players who play in Germany, does not have a classic goal scorer. Gregoritsch repeatedly takes responsibility in the national jersey, but you will search in vain for a top striker from the top shelf in Team Austria.
Incidentally, the first three international matches of the “Burschen” in the calendar year 2025 provided proof of this thesis. in the 2025 calendar year. First, the Austrians failed to qualify for the Nations League A Division after two disappointing performances and only one goal scored in 180 minutes against Serbia in the playoffs, before squandering numerous chances against Romania in their qualifying opener on Saturday evening and could well have won by more than 2-1.
It is quite possible that the world number 22 will have to be patient in their second group game against a very defensive and deep-lying opponent. This in turn leads to attractive San Marino vs. Austria odds, which suggest that more goals will be scored in the second half than in the first. At Bet365, for example, you can get 1.92.
San Marino – Austria Head-to-head record / H2H record
The only two direct encounters between these national teams date back to the European Championship qualifiers for the 2000 finals in Belgium and the Netherlands. Austria won 4-1 away in San Marino and 7-0 at home. Almost 30 years later, the omens are virtually the same. Anything other than a comfortable victory for the “Burschen,” who, like their opponents, have developed considerably, would be a huge surprise.
San Marino – Austria Tip
There is definitely no need for artificially generated tension on Tuesday evening. Austria will of course win the away game at the San Marino Stadium. However, with odds of only 1.02 on the favorite in the three-way market, it will take some creativity to make a nice profit from this uneven matchup. A handicap bet is a good option, although it should be noted that the home side rarely suffer heavy defeats, especially at home. Apart from that, the “Burschen” have not exactly covered themselves in glory away from home for years.
Given that the Austrians last scored more than three goals in an away international six years ago (!) and have not set the world alight against teams from the Faroe Islands or Moldova during this period, I am also leaning towards a clear victory, but with a maximum of four goals in the game. So, for my San Marino vs. Austria tip, I’m combining the favorite three with under 4.5 at odds of 1.75 at Bet-at-Home. I’m betting six out of a possible ten fictional units.