Will Fluminense make another costly mistake?
The Rio de Janeiro club surprised everyone at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Flu only lost in the semi-finals against Chelsea, who went on to win the tournament. Looking at it objectively, Renato Gaucho’s players are currently paying the price for this additional strain. The negative trend of the last few matchdays continues in the Sao Paulo vs. Fluminense tip.
On the home side, a returning player is creating a positive atmosphere and a change within the club. Hernan Crespo has taken over as coach of FC Sao Paulo for the second time since 2021. According to our Sao Paulo vs. Fluminense prediction, the current streak of three consecutive unbeaten league games will be extended by at least one more match.
Sao Paulo – Statistics & current form
There have definitely been better seasons for the six-time Brazilian champions. Sao Paulo finished two of the previous four years in double digits and are once again stuck in the lower mid-table this season.
The poor start to the season has not gone down well with those in charge. A change of coach was intended to give the team a boost, and it has done so for the time being. Hernan Crespo already knows the club from his first spell in charge four years ago. His expertise is helping the struggling team enormously.
In their first league game after his appointment, the club suffered a 2-0 defeat to Flamengo, but they did so with a changed formation. Under the 50-year-old, the home side are playing a 3-5-2 system that strengthens the wing play and allows the players in attack to move fluidly.
The momentum is with Sao Paulo
The more time the team spends with Crespo, the better they perform – at least that’s how it looks so far, and you can see that in the Sao Paulo vs. Fluminense odds. Following their first and only defeat against Flamengo (0-2), the Tricolor Paulista have been unbeaten (2W, 1D).
A 2-2 draw against RB Bragantino marked the start of their best phase of the season so far. A much-celebrated derby victory against Corinthians (2-0) was followed by another three points against Juventude (1-0). None of the hosts’ last three games have ended with more than 1.3 expected goals conceded – a significant improvement compared to the pre-Crespo era.
Luciano in particular is benefiting from the change in playing style. The 32-year-old has scored Sao Paulo’s last three goals and also provided both assists in the 2-2 draw against RB Bragantino.
Fluminense – Statistics & current form
The current season is much more difficult for the visitors. Renato Gaucho’s team lacks substance after returning from the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Including the defeat against Chelsea (0-2), the visitors have lost four consecutive competitive games.
For the first time this season, Flu has lost three consecutive games in the national league competition. There have been several notable incidents that point to the visitors’ increased level of fatigue. The bookmakers may also be taking this into account in their Sao Paulo vs. Fluminense odds.
In the last league game against Palmeiras (1-2), there was a lack of coordination on a cross shortly before the half-time whistle. In addition, 44-year-old goalkeeper Fabio looked extremely unfortunate in his attempt to save a header from close range. The keeper did not make such a mistake in the Club World Cup.
Fluminense relies on individual moments in attack
The lack of output in attack, on the other hand, has been evident since the start of the season. In a league comparison, Fluzao are stuck in the lower mid-table with 16.7 expected goals (14th). This is an issue that is becoming increasingly important due to growing concentration errors in defense.
Flu failed to score in three of their previous four competitive games. In addition, the visitors have scored only seven goals in seven away games and won only two games away from home (1D, 4L). Furthermore, the team lacks a real goalscorer.
This was already evident in the FIFA Club World Cup, where the Gaucho XI failed to score in three of their six matches. At the national level, no single player has scored more than three goals this season.
Sao Paulo – Fluminense Head-to-head record / H2H record
The last few encounters give us a clear indication of the Sao Paulo vs. Fluminense prediction. In each of the five previous encounters, the home team came away with the win. In addition, Sao Paulo is unbeaten in five home games against Flu (3W, 2D).
Sao Paulo – Fluminense Tip
Home games have been a real advantage in this comparison recently. In addition, the momentum is quite clearly on the side of the hosts, who are looking to build on two wins in a row. The situation is completely different for Fluminense, who have suffered defeat after defeat recently.
We give Hernan Crespo’s team a slight advantage in the Sao Paulo vs. Fluminense tip and are also guided by the tendency for low-scoring encounters in the Brazilian top flight.
