Will Georgia also fall victim to Spanish dominance?
Fifteen months ago, the Georgian national soccer team briefly caused the Spanish to fear for their place in the European Championship quarterfinals. The surprisingly strong underdogs took a sensational 1-0 lead in the round of 16 after 18 minutes and managed to hold on to this lead almost until halftime. However, following the 1-1 draw, their resistance gradually waned after the break, allowing the “Furia Roja” to ultimately prevail 4-1 and later celebrate winning the title.
On Saturday evening, there will be a rematch of this encounter, this time in the third matchday of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The omens are basically comparable, because, of course, between Spain and Georgia, betting on the reigning European champions comes with significantly lower odds. It’s much more about the margin of victory for the favorites and the question of whether – after the Turks – the next ambitious national team will also feel the footballing dominance of coach De La Fuente’s team.
The World Cup qualifiers have gone absolutely according to plan for the Iberians so far. After a delayed start due to their run to the Nations League final in the summer (defeat on penalties against Portugal), the Spaniards have played two games and won both very convincingly. Their expected 3-0 victory in Bulgaria was followed a few days later by the aforementioned demonstration of power against Turkey. Lamine Yamal and Co. swept aside the European Championship quarter-finalists 6-0.
Interesting fact: Of the nine goals scored in World Cup qualifying so far, six have come in the first half. In both matches, the “Furia Roja” led 3-0 at half-time! Consequently, it is definitely worth considering a handicap half-time lead prediction for Spain’s first home game of this qualifying round against Georgia. The Betano app is offering an impressive 2.70 odds on the southern Europeans leading by at least two goals after 45 minutes.
To help you make your decision, it’s definitely worth mentioning that both national teams will be without key players. Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Fabian Ruiz, and Alvaro Morata will be missing for the European champions, while Willy Sagnol will have to do without his superstar Kvicha Kvaratskhelia. Despite the absence of various offensive players, I expect to see a few goals at the Estadio Manuel Martinez Valero – including goals from the Spanish in both halves, for which Interwetten has offered odds of 1.55. Incidentally, Interwetten also has increased odds on offer for World Cup qualification!
Spain – Georgia Head-to-head record
Spain and Georgia have faced each other three times in the last two years alone. The Spaniards won all three games, but always conceded a goal. La Roja scored a total of 14 goals, six of them in the first 45 minutes. In fact, in all three of these games, the over 1.5 would have been reached in the first half. Taking all eight direct duels as a benchmark, the Georgians have only managed to avoid defeat once. Spain has won seven times and drawn once. The goal difference of 23:5 in favor of the current European champions also speaks volumes.
Spain – Georgia Tip
Even before the start of qualifying group E, it was clear that Spain, Turkey, and Georgia were the three teams with a realistic chance of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. However, because only the group winner will qualify directly and the Spanish show no signs of weakening in any way, it looks like it will be a two-horse race between the Turks and the Georgians for second place. Points won against the group leaders are therefore to be considered a bonus. The Turks were denied such a bonus in their 6-0 defeat in September. How will the surprise team of Euro 2024 fare on Saturday evening in Elche?
Although the “Furia Roja” will be without some of its stars, I am firmly convinced that coach De la Fuente’s team will once again live up to its role as favorite and flex its muscles. The Spaniards have scored 14 goals in the last three direct duels since 2023. I therefore recommend betting on at least two goals being scored in the first 45 minutes between Spain and Georgia. In all of Spain’s international matches in the current calendar year, two or more goals have been scored before halftime. In Georgia’s last five competitive matches, the over 1.5 (1st half) would also have been successful!
