Will the Leões’ home streak come to an end?

With 13 out of a possible 18 points, defending champions Paris Saint-Germain are third in the Champions League group stage table with two matchdays to go and would currently qualify directly for the round of 16. Now, however, the Rouge-et-Bleu must prevail in Portugal, where they have won only one of their last eight European away games (two draws, five defeats). Nevertheless, our tip for Sporting Lisbon vs. PSG is that Luis Enrique’s team will take all three points.

The Leões (English: the Lions) have won their last three Champions League home games, including a 2-1 victory over Ligue 1 representatives Olympique Marseille. However, the Portuguese side’s injury list is bursting at the seams. In addition to the six injury-related absences, captain Morten Hjulmand is also suspended and will miss this home game. Against this backdrop, the prediction of an away win for the Rouge-et-Bleu in Sporting Lisbon vs. PSG makes a lot of sense.

Basically, goals are also to be expected in the Portuguese capital. Neither team has been particularly compact defensively, conceding eight goals in the first six matchdays of the Champions League group stage, which is only surpassed by Dortmund (13) and Atlético Madrid (12) among the current top 14 teams. So if you don’t see the Rouge-et-Bleu winning away, you could alternatively bet on both teams scoring in this match.

Sporting Lisbon vs. PSG Prediction AI

First of all, it should be noted that the odds offered by the best bookmakers are incredibly good for this match. AI finds virtually no market with a positive expected value, as the AI’s assessments always coincide with the bookmakers’ ratings. However, according to the AI prediction, there is at least some value to be found in Sporting Lisbon vs. PSG due to the very high odds for a home win for the Leões in tip 1, which is rated at 4.33 in the bet365 app. This implies a probability of 23.1 percent. AI is just above that at 24 percent, which means that the supposed underdog bet comes with a positive expected value, even though the associated risk is immense.

Sporting Lisbon – Statistics & current form

As the reigning Portuguese champions, Sporting Lisbon naturally had big plans for the 2025/26 season. Currently, however, the Verde e brancos (Green and Whites) are lagging behind their goals in many respects. First and foremost is the resurgent FC Porto, which has earned an incredible 52 out of a possible 54 points in the Portuguese league, meaning that the Leões’ very good haul of 45 out of a possible 54 points is currently only enough for second place, seven points behind.

On the other hand, the aforementioned injury crisis has also set Rui Borges’ team back significantly. Not only did they only manage a 1-1 draw away at Gil Vicente at the start of 2026, which was simply not enough in the title race, but this was followed just four days later by a 2-1 home defeat to Vitória in the Taca da Liga.

Sporting Lisbon with a perfect home record

Internationally, however, the reigning Portuguese champions have sold themselves quite expensively. With ten out of a possible 18 points, the Verde e brancos are 14th in the Champions League table and would therefore qualify for the knockout stages. If Sporting Lisbon’s home win against PSG, as predicted by the AI, comes to pass, the Portuguese side would even draw level on points with Paris Saint-Germain.

This is supported by the fact that nine of the ten points were earned at home, as the Leões won all three home games in the CL league phase, including a 2-1 victory over Olympique Marseille on matchday three. Now, for the first time ever in the club’s history, Sporting CP could win four consecutive home games in the European Cup.

PSG – Statistics & current form

Paris Saint-Germain also had bigger plans after their historic treble in the 2024/25 season. However, a repeat of the treble will not be possible this summer, at least.

Last Monday, the Rouge-et-Bleu finally lost 1-0 to city rivals Paris FC in the round of 32 of the Coupe de France in front of their home crowd. In Ligue 1, Luis Enrique’s men are currently only in second place behind surprise team RC Lens.

PSG travels with a full squad

At least Paris Saint-Germain had a successful dress rehearsal at the weekend. The Rouge-et-Bleu shot down Lille OSC 3-0. It should be noted that PSG also had some injury misfortune at times, but can now look forward to the return of numerous players. Against this backdrop, the odds at all bookmakers for Sporting Lisbon vs. PSG are leaning so heavily toward the visitors from the Seine because coach Luis Enrique can once again draw on virtually his entire squad.

In addition, the quality across the board is also an important factor. The extent to which this is valued is also evident in the fact that no other team has had as many different goalscorers as Paris Saint-Germain (already eleven, not counting own goals by opponents) in the first six matchdays of the Champions League group stage.

Sporting Lisbon – PSG Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0

Although both teams are very experienced internationally, their paths have never crossed in a European competitive match before. The Rouge-et-Bleu are thus the twelfth different team from France that Sporting Lisbon will face. Portugal has not been a particularly favorable venue for Paris Saint-Germain so far. PSG has won only one of its last eight European away games in Portugal (two draws, five defeats) – a 1-0 win at Sporting Braga in the 2008/09 UEFA Cup.

Sporting Lisbon – PSG Tip

All in all, our prediction for Sporting Lisbon vs. PSG is an away win for the defending champions, who may not have a particularly good away record in Portugal, but since a 1-2 defeat at Benfica Lisbon, they have not lost any of their last 32 Champions League games against opponents who are not from Europe’s top five leagues, which generally do not include Portugal’s top division (26 wins, six draws). In addition, the Leões have a long list of absentees, which has also been reflected in their recent results. The fact that captain Morten Hjulmand is now also suspended for accumulating yellow cards certainly does not improve the situation.

Although it might make sense to switch to betting on a high-scoring match or even cover a possible draw, which would also keep the Parisians in the top eight, we ultimately recommend betting on an away win for the defending champions.