Finale Furioso – will Napoli take the final step towards the Scudetto?
High tension in the Serie A title race! Despite two recent slip-ups in a row, the champagne is already on ice at the foot of Mount Vesuvius, as closest rivals Inter Milan also dropped points in their last home game against Lazio Rome. This means that the “Gli Azzurri” have it in their own hands. If Napoli beat Cagliari at home, Antonio Conte’s team will be Italian champions!
The bookies are more than convinced that nothing can go wrong, as the visitors from Sardinia celebrated their survival in the league last week and go into the upcoming game without any pressure. This circumstance is certainly an advantage for the championship contenders from southern Italy. The betting providers’ prediction for Napoli vs. Cagliari is therefore clear.
Napoli vs. Cagliari AI prediction
Our AI lady BETSiE considers the hosts’ chances of winning, as implied by the bookmakers’ odds, to be significantly overestimated in the Napoli vs. Cagliari AI prediction. Since the AI gives the home team over twenty percentage points less chance of winning, there is clear value in betting on an unbeaten result for the underdogs. Does the artificial intelligence take the clear starting position for the upcoming match into account here?
Just like us, BETSiE expects few goals in the upcoming match. While the home team has an xG value of 1.5, the Napoli vs. Cagliari AI prediction does not necessarily assume a goal from the visitors from Sardinia (xG value 0.57).
SSC Napoli – Statistics & current form
Are Antonio Conte’s men shaking in their boots in the Serie A title race? Two matchdays ago, everything looked rosy for SSC Napoli. They were three points ahead of Inter Milan, and the remaining fixtures against Genoa, Parma, and Cagliari seemed more than manageable, but the “Gli Azzurri” have already slipped up twice in this supposedly easy run-in.
They only managed a draw against both Genoa and Parma. As a result, Conte’s team had Lazio Rome to thank for not losing their place at the top of the table to the Nerazzurri on the last matchday. Thanks to Lazio’s last-minute equalizer against rivals Inter Milan, the door to the Italian championship is now wide open for “Gli Azzurri,” but Antonio Conte’s team still has to walk through it.
However, the odds for Napoli against Cagliari at Interwetten leave little doubt that they will succeed. This bookie’s deposit bonus of up to €200 would also sweeten a correct prediction of a Napoli home win.
Offense wins games, defense wins championships
With only 27 goals conceded, Napoli has by far the best defense in the Italian top flight. Before their two recent slip-ups, Antonio Conte’s team had four clean sheets in a row. They also kept a clean sheet in last week’s goalless draw in Parma, even if it wasn’t enough for a win this time. Given these circumstances, our Napoli vs. Cagliari prediction is obviously not for a goal fest.
The “Gli Azzurri” now have one step left to take towards the championship. SSC Napoli are likely to take that step and, after two draws in a row, are very likely to return to winning ways. Conte’s team are unlikely to let this historic chance to win their next Scudetto slip away, with their last two home games against Cagliari also ending in victories for Napoli.
Cagliari – Statistics & current form
Davide Nicola’s team had once again found themselves in danger of relegation due to poor results in recent weeks in Serie A, but last weekend’s home win against the league’s weakest away team, FC Venice, finally brought certainty.
US Cagliari will remain in the top flight next season, meaning that the team has already achieved its goal for the season. Nevertheless, Nicola’s team could still play a decisive role in the Italian championship battle.
Will Cagliari surprise Napoli?
However, Davide Nicola’s team has not been known as a strong away side this season. They have lost ten and won only three of their Serie A away games. This makes Cagliari one of the weakest away teams in the Italian top flight. A bet on Napoli to win away against Cagliari with a Paysafecard deposit would therefore be bold, to say the least.
The offense in particular has been lackluster on the road, scoring only 16 goals. At least “I Rossoblu” have been reasonably solid at the back, conceding only 26 goals in away games, the best record of any team at the bottom of the Serie A table. Not least because of this, we don’t expect to see many goals at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Sunday.
With Cagliari having nothing to play for and their upcoming opponents still reaching for the stars, we expect the favorites to prevail in their own living room in the end. How much resistance the team from Sardinia will actually put up will be seen on Sunday.
SSC Napoli – Cagliari Head-to-head record / H2H record
The two teams have faced each other 83 times in total, with Napoli winning around half of the games with 38 victories. Cagliari have only won 14 times, with 31 draws. However, Antonio Conte’s team has only won two of the last four league matches.
The home record of “Gli Azzurri” against Cagliari is much clearer. 25 wins in 41 home games speak for themselves (25-11-5). There is therefore no question who is the favorite in the betting odds for the match between Napoli and Cagliari.
SSC Napoli – Cagliari Tip
Will Napoli show nerves again just before the big goal, or will Conte’s team get the job done confidently this time? In any case, our Napoli vs. Cagliari tip is that Antonio Conte will achieve legendary status at Vesuvius this coming Sunday. Ultimately, the home side should prevail, not least because the visitors from Sardinia celebrated securing their place in the league last weekend and no longer have any major sporting goals to pursue this season.
As always, pragmatism is likely to be the order of the day for the hosts. Not a single home game played by the Neapolitans has seen more than four goals scored, and the Serie A leaders have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five league games. Furthermore, SSC Napoli have scored more than three goals in only two home league games this season. This gives rise to various betting approaches for a Napoli vs. Cagliari prediction.
So, you’re taking relatively little risk by betting on a home win with less than four goals in the game. A higher risk level is offered by betting on a clean sheet victory for the hosts, but surprisingly, the odds for this are significantly lower.